Within the government, pessimism is growing regarding Sweden's chances of achieving formal NATO membership before the summit in Vilnius. Basically, there are two explanations for this.
The first is that neither Turkey nor Hungary has so far signalled any change of attitude towards Sweden. But it is Turkey's stance that is perceived as decisive. If and when Turkey is prepared to ratify Sweden's membership application, Hungary is expected to follow suit.
The second explanation is that the timetable ahead is complicated as far as Sweden is concerned. Turkey will hold elections on 14 May, and before that the Swedish government considers it hopeless to continue the NATO negotiations. Only after the elections, when parliament has convened and a government and a president are in place, is there considered to be a prospect of making progress in the talks.
Sweden hopes for heavy NATO countries
Sweden is now pinning all hope that pressure from heavy NATO countries will persuade both Turkey and Hungary to approve Sweden before the summit. It would be a major setback for NATO's "open door policy" if Sweden were not to be admitted to NATO this summer. Not least the United States is likely to do everything in its power to crack Turkey's opposition to Swedish NATO membership.
No matter what, it is obvious that there is such a high degree of uncertainty about the Swedish NATO process that it is currently impossible to predict with any great certainty when Sweden can become a full member.
With maximum luck in the coming months, Sweden can become a member before the summit in Vilnius. With a bit of bad luck, membership may take until next year.
See SVT's compilation of the obstacles that stand between Sweden and NATO in the clip above.