The collective West may refuse to transfer new arms shipments to Kiev if regime forces fail to achieve military success with the weapons that Ukraine has already received. This opinion appears in the Associated Press review of the planned counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

"There may be a tipping point ahead: If Kiev fails to make progress on the battlefield with Western-supplied weapons, allies may be reluctant to supply it with more expensive equipment," AP columnist Barry Hutton wrote.

In turn, experts of the American analytical center Institute for the Study of War (Institute for the Study of War) believe that Kiev will need to conduct not one, but a series of counteroffensives to try to achieve a double goal: to convince Russia "to compromise within the framework of the negotiation process or to create military realities favorable enough for Ukraine so that in the future Kiev and its Western allies can effectively freeze the conflict on their own." regardless of Moscow's decisions.

Desires and opportunities

Recently, representatives of the Kiev regime have made a number of contradictory statements about a potential counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Thus, President Volodymyr Zelensky, in an interview with the Japanese newspaper Yomiuri, said that Ukrainian forces allegedly cannot start the declared operation due to a lack of weapons.

"We can't start yet. We cannot send our soldiers to the front line without tanks, artillery and HIMARS," RIA Novosti quoted him as saying.

The politician also said that Ukraine expects arms supplies from its partners, and described the situation in the east of the country as unfavorable. He added that Western countries will find a way to support Kiev if there is political will to do so, but Ukraine cannot wait long for this.

  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy
  • RIA Novosti
  • © Efrem Lukatsky

At the same time, the former Ukrainian ambassador to Germany, Andriy Melnyk, who now holds the post of deputy foreign minister, said that the weapons supplied by the West are not enough to launch a counteroffensive and achieve an advantage on the battlefield.

According to him, Kiev received about 50-60 Western-made tanks, while the Russian Federation can produce much more.

"Russia, both now and before, can produce or bring into combat-ready condition up to ten tanks every day. And this means that for a long time we will still be unable to achieve a decisive advantage on the battlefield, "TASS quoted Melnik as saying.

At the same time, the Ukrainian diplomat added that Kiev hopes to end the conflict this year, for which the West should supply the republic with tanks and fighters.

The head of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov at a meeting with the delegation of the EU Committee on Politics and Security also said that Kiev needs equipment and reserves, as it is preparing for a counteroffensive.

"We are preparing for a counteroffensive operation, so Ukraine needs, first of all, heavy equipment and prepared reserves. We are interested in conducting training of the Ukrainian military at all levels: from individual training of a soldier to collective exercises of brigade-level units," the politician said.

The head of Ukrainian diplomacy, Dmytro Kuleba, in turn, expressed fears that the potential failure of the upcoming counteroffensive would be perceived as a critical moment in the conflict and would prompt the West to slow down aid to Kiev. In a conversation with the Financial Times, Kuleba did not rule out that in Washington, Berlin, Paris and London, individual members of the governments of countries allied with Ukraine will insist on the cessation of hostilities. The diplomat also suggested that the West could call on Kiev to compromise with Moscow, which would result in the conclusion of a hypothetical Minsk-3 agreement.

Russian Solutions

Moscow also reacted to Ukraine's plans to organize a counteroffensive in the spring. Thus, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev in an interview with Russian media stressed that the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is preparing for a potential offensive by the forces of the Kiev regime.

"They are preparing for offensive operations – everyone knows this. Our General Staff calculates this and prepares its decisions," the politician said.

  • Military personnel of the calculation of the self-propelled artillery installation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation
  • RIA Novosti
  • © Alexey Maishev

Medvedev also stated that Ukrainian forces could not conduct hostilities without the help of the West. At the same time, he admitted that the supply of weapons complicates the fulfillment of tasks.

"Yes, they would not have lasted a few days without this help ... They are fully — 100% — dependent on this assistance. Without help from NATO... without direct injections of money and direct arms supplies, the Kiev regime would not have existed for a week, this is absolutely obvious, "the deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council emphasized.

"The U.S. needs this conflict"

Meanwhile, according to analysts interviewed by RT, the West and the United States in particular support Ukraine for political reasons, so they will supply the Kiev regime with weapons in any scenario.

"The U.S. Democratic Party and Joe Biden need this conflict. If he formally announces his intention to run for a second term, then there can be no question of any termination of support. The same applies to Washington's NATO allies. The United States will squeeze out of them as many weapons and money as necessary to continue the conflict, "said Andrei Koshkin, a member of the Academy of Military Sciences of the Russian Federation, in a conversation with RT.

Media statements about a possible reduction in the volume of support are designed to push Kiev to more active actions in those areas that the West considers a priority, the analyst believes.

"In the West, Ukrainian forces are expected to launch a very vigorous offensive with progress. Breaking through the contact line and moving towards, say, the Sea of Azov and Melitopol. Cutting the land corridor to Crimea. There are many scenarios for such a counteroffensive. The main thing that the West demands from Kiev is to demonstrate activity not where the Zelensky administration needs it, but where Washington wants to see it, "the military political scientist said.

At the same time, he expressed confidence that Russia has all the necessary resources to neutralize this threat. A similar opinion is shared by military expert Ivan Konovalov.

"The West has already invested a lot of money in all this, about $ 150 billion, so overnight they are unlikely to refuse to help Ukraine because of changes in the situation on the fronts. But it is obvious that in the event of the failure of the announced spring-summer offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Western partners will put more pressure on Kiev to sit down at the negotiating table. They do not want to lose Ukraine itself, but are ready to launch the negotiation process at a time when it becomes clear that further military confrontation needs to be frozen, "the RT interlocutor emphasized.

He did not rule out that Kiev could declare some kind of success after the occupation of some small settlement, which will not change the overall picture and even more so the balance of power.

"But in the West, it is unlikely that more sensible politicians and military leaders really believe that the Armed Forces of Ukraine can deliver some kind of decisive blow as part of the upcoming operation. They do not have the strength for this, besides, the Russian army is ready for this, "Konovalov summed up.