The fear of large-scale cyber attacks that characterized the first weeks of the war was not unfounded. In recent years, Russia has repeatedly carried out attacks on Ukraine's electricity grid.
But the doomsday scenarios of collapsed financial systems and shuttered cities have so far not materialized.
According to Pontus Johnson, professor at KTH and director of the Center for Cyber Defense and Information Security, the missing attacks can partly be explained by a lack of planning. Carrying out complicated cyberattacks takes time, he explains.
"I think pretty much the entire Russian military apparatus was pretty unprepared for the war.
Better defense
Another explanation lies in the fact that Ukraine has simply become better at defending itself, while at the same time receiving extensive support from Western actors in the form of both equipment and training.
"Since 2014, they have trained themselves and been trained to defend their systems. Russia has been subjecting them to low-intensity cyberattacks for a decade, Johnson said.
Unrealistic expectations
Carolina Vendil Pallin, research leader at the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), shares the picture that Ukraine's defenses have strengthened sharply in recent years. At the same time, expectations of Russia have been unrealistic, she says.
She also highlights the fact that Russia's own cyber defenses appear to be even more neglected than its offensive branch.
"Russia has also been subjected to massive cyber attacks in 2022. If you compare, it is probably the case that the society that has the most social functions running is the one that is most vulnerable, and in this case it has been Russia