Stop or again? The popular Social Democrat Prime Minister, Sanna Marin, will try to win a second term against her rivals on the right and far right in a general election that promises to be very close on Sunday 2nd April in Finland.

The 37-year-old leader, who has gained international fame in four years, comes third in the latest polls but in a handkerchief with the leader of the National Coalition (centre-right), Petteri Orpo, and the leader of the Party of Finns, anti-immigration and eurosceptic, Riikka Purra.

The post of Prime Minister traditionally falls in Finland to the leader of the party that comes out on top, making the final order of arrival crucial. According to the latest poll published on Thursday, the National Coalition is due to come out ahead with 19.8%, ahead of the Finns Party with 19.5%, then Sanna Marin's SDP with 18.7%, tiny differences that are within the margin of error.

"It's a situation full of suspense and it's difficult to say at this stage which party will be first on election day," said Tuomo Turja of Taloustutkimus.

"Sanna Marin is a divisive figure"

The Finns Party has already been in government, before a split in 2017 that saw a more radical line prevail. But if he comes out ahead on Sunday, it would be a first that could see him beat his electoral record (19.05% in 2011) – and another gust on the European political scene.

Unknown, even to a good part of Finns, when she came to power at the end of 2019, Sanna Marin has built a global reputation, with her title – since lost – of the youngest leader in the world.

Having become head of government after the resignation of her comrade Antti Rinne, this is the first time she has led her camp to the electoral battle.

Crowned with the status of the most popular Prime Minister in the twenty-first century, she also has a much more contrasting image at home than abroad.

"Sanna Marin is a divisive figure. She has fans like a rock star, but on the other hand, there are plenty of people who can't stand her," said Marko Junkkari, a political journalist at the leading daily Helsingin Sanomat.

His five-party government coalition, made up of the Social Democrats, the Centre, the Greens, the Left Alliance and a Swedish-speaking party, has been floundering for several months. The centrist party has already warned that it will refuse to renew the outgoing alliance.

Sanna Marin is attacked by the opposition over the debt which has increased by nearly 10 points of GDP during her mandate. "The forecasts are very bad. Our public finances will collapse and this will lead to the erosion of the foundations of our welfare state," Petteri Orpo, who advocates a €6 billion savings plan, told AFP.

Anti-immigration sentiment and inflationary surges

All three major parties are able to improve on their 2019 scores, but the biggest gain since last summer came from the Finns party, which capitalized on anti-immigration sentiment and inflationary surges.

The party has turned neighbouring Sweden into a foil, pointing to its endless war of immigrant gangs, in a Finland where the share of foreign-born inhabitants remains among the lowest in Europe. "We don't want to go the way of Sweden. We stress the effects of a dangerous immigration policy," Riikka Purra told AFP.

His party sees leaving the EU as a long-term goal and wants to push back Finland's carbon neutrality goal, currently set for 2035.

Negotiations to form a government are expected to be difficult, in an election marked by a record share of women party leaders – seven out of eight.

Once a heavyweight in Finnish politics, the Centre Party went from first party in 2015 to its lowest ever, after having been in the right-wing and left-wing executives for eight years. Even in the – probable – case of a pitiful score, his choice of alliance promises to be crucial, because without him the right and the extreme right have little chance of building a majority.

Another option favoured by some analysts is a left-right unity government. "Currently, the most likely scenario is a blue-red government based on the National Coalition and the SDP," Turja said.

The election precedes by a few days a date that will be historic for Finland, with an entry into NATO that could take place next week. But the election result is unlikely to derail the process, as all major parties are now advocates of entry into the Atlantic Alliance, a tipping point caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

With AFP

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