If Donald Trump ended up in jail, it would not affect his political career. The law of the United States allows to opt for the Presidency – which in that country is the head of State and Government – being charged, being tried or even after having been convicted and in prison. In the latter case, yes, there would be practical consequences difficult to imagine, and that revolve fundamentally around a question: how can a country be directed from a cell?
The legal, therefore, does not take away the bizarre. For now, Trump will go, probably on Tuesday, before the New York Justice accompanied by the agents of the Secret Service who are in charge of his security for being a former president. The Secret Service must coordinate with the NYPD on everything related to fingerprinting, height measurement and photography of the former president. There remains the great question of the perp walk, that is, of the promenade to which all those arrested in New York are subjected, handcuffed with their hands behind their backs and two officers grabbing their arms. Will they dare to do it with a former president? Will the Secret Service, which is ultimately responsible for who approaches Trump and who doesn't, allow it?
There are many uncertainties in the case. As would Trump's eventual jail sentence. Would I go with the Secret Service? Would they sleep with him in the cell? In the corridor? These are questions that may seem absurd, but have no answer. U.S. law has no answer for them.
Now, that is to anticipate events a lot. The first question is whether Trump is going to turn himself in. Apparently, the former president is willing to do so. That renders futile the assertion by his almost certain rival for the Republican nomination, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, that the state "will not cooperate on the extradition request" that New York authorities will presumably send him. DeSantis' claim is unconstitutional. But, above all, it seems an attempt to score points among the former president's followers, because Trump, according to those close to him, is going to surrender voluntarily.
The second question is whether the judge in the case will accept the prosecution's charges. At the moment, we do not know what they are although, according to the US media, it could be more than 30. In many cases, judges significantly cut prosecutors' indictments, so if that were to happen with Trump, it wouldn't be exceptional. Of course, to know that we will have to wait, at least, weeks.
Finally, there is the question of witnesses. There the Prosecutor's Office is in theoretically slippery terrain. One of his main assets is the pornographic actress Stormy Daniels, whom Trump's defense will accuse, predictably, of having orchestrated all the assembly to relaunch his dying career.
The other is Michael Cohen, the former head of the Trump Organization's legal team, who is the 'umbrella' under which the former president organizes his businesses, and who has been convicted of fraud and has his former chief financial officer, David Weisselberg (who played a central role in the payments to Daniels). But Cohen has spent three years in jail for tax fraud and violating campaign finance legislation, and has become Trump's "public enemy number one." That could call into question his credibility as a witness, since the former president's defense would not have a hard time presenting him as a confessed criminal and a former employee of Donald Trump moved by resentment.
The point, however, is that the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of Manhattan is, without a doubt, the most professional and effective in the United States, as it has jurisdiction over none other than Wall Street. So it seems unlikely that he has thrown himself foolishly and madly into a case of historic magnitude. Be that as it may, we will only have the answer in the coming weeks or, more likely, months. Meanwhile, one thing is clear: candidate Trump continues to lead, with enormous advantage, the polls of the Republican Party to the elections of 2024. And the only thing that can prevent him from running are two things: a health problem (which, considering the longevity of his parents, seems unlikely), or losing the primaries. From jail, from the courthouse or from Mar-a-Lago, candidate Trump continues.
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