- Imputation What will happen to Trump's candidacy for the White House?
The 23 members of the New York grand jury that has decided in the case of payments made by former US President Donald Trump to pornographic actress Stormy Daniels – and possibly also to erotic model Karen McDougal – could have unwittingly become, too, the judges of the 2024 election campaign.
The race for the White House has been dynamited by the grand jury's decision to indict Trump. In the absence of the president turning himself in – which could happen on Tuesday – and for the charges to be made public – which could also occur that same day, although that is not certain – there is one thing clear in the field of political reality: Donald Trump has further strengthened his leadership in the Republican Party.
This is acknowledged by sources close to his rivals, starting with his only major rival in the Republican nomination for 2024, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Since December, Trump's lead over DeSantis in the polls has only grown. The president's announcement that he was going to be "arrested" two weeks ago triggered that difference. And, now, the fact that Trump is going to be "signed" can increase it even more, which according to the latest polls was already 14 points.
The reason is simple: Trump's indictment has triggered a wave of sympathy for him among the Republican bases, which already gave him more than considerable support. As a consequence, and in order not to commit electoral suicide, Trump's rivals in the race for the White House, such as DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence, have already been quick to express their rejection of the accusation. The 23 members of the Manhattan grand jury – or, at least, sixteen of them, which is the minimum required when voting on an indictment – have adhered to the strictest legality but have injected a dose of extra populism into a campaign that was already oozing demagoguery.
For DeSantis, the problem is twofold. For one, he only has five weeks left to announce that he is running. That's because state law prohibits a state elected office — such as governor — from running for federal office — as president — without resigning from office. And DeSantis doesn't want to leave the position he already has. That, in the first place, is a sign of weakness, because it indicates that the candidate is not willing to "burn the ships" for the White House, which in turn insinuates that he is not clear that he will win the nomination or the general election, so he wants, as 'Plan B', to maintain his current position.
So DeSantis has to ask the Florida Congress to overturn that rule. That's no problem; the problem is that the Florida Congress concludes its session on May 5. In other words, DeSantis has five weeks to ask to be exempted from the obligation to resign as governor to run for president.
And, with which he has armed, it is likely that many Trump supporters see in that move a betrayal of the former president, who saved DeSantis' political career in 2020. Running for office – or taking the necessary steps to run for office – when one's only major rival is suffering what voters perceive as political persecution is not the best calling card to an angry, blame-seeking electorate for what it considers a 'manhunt' – in this case, Trump – by the political and institutional class.
Ideas vs. personality
As a person close to Trump, who worked with him in the government and prefers to remain anonymous, says, "DeSantis has the ideas, but Trump has the personality." And, in an information environment dominated by a trial with sex, 'porn', accusations of corruption, fraud and politicization, personality, blows of effect, and image is what counts. DeSantis' ideas, his war with the multinational Disney, his attacks on 'woke' culture and his control of the Florida education system do not have much to do in the court of public opinion in front of a series of headlines with a 'porn' star, the 'Playmate' of the Year of 1998, and a former president.
The indictment also breaks DeSantis' strategy. To date, Trump's biggest advantage in this election is that they may be a repeat of 2016. On the one hand, he, with 40% of the vote. On the other, half a dozen - at least - Republican candidates, the other 60% contesting. Thus, Trump wins for sure, even if it takes time, just like eight years ago.
To prevent that, DeSantis was counting on former New Jersey governor and 2016 White House candidate Chris Christie to launch his own bid for president. Christie has no chance of winning but, by the calculation of DeSantis' advisers, is a political kamikaze who is willing to go straight for Trump, with whom he has had a relationship that has oscillated between love and hate, sometimes even simultaneously. The former governor of New Jersey, thus, could distract Trump, and even fight with him for some of his voters, while the methodical, boring and very effective DeSantis would build his electoral base for the country. But again, with the legal process open, any Christie attack on Trump will have zero impact, and will end any chance of getting a single vote at the expense of the former president.
So Trump has, at least for now, the path to the Republican nomination much more open, at least within the framework set by an unprecedented situation. Trump, who did not win the popular vote in either of the two elections he ran for, could achieve his political relaunch, perhaps, from another vote, this time of a Manhattan grand jury, which he also did not win.
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- Donald Trump
- United States