NATO is preparing to welcome a 31st member. After Hungary on Monday, Turkey finally gave the green light, Thursday, March 30, to Finland's accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), during a vote in Parliament.

"Finland will be a strong and capable ally, committed to the security of the Alliance," said President Sauli Niinistö, thanking the members of the transatlantic organisation for their support.

The country, which shares 1,340 kilometers of border with Russia, had officially submitted its request to NATO on May 18, 2022, three months after the start of the war in Ukraine, just like Sweden, whose membership remains blocked by Turkey for the time being.

Its now imminent integration marks a historic turning point for Finland, which has been defending a policy of military non-alignment for several decades. However, the question of NATO membership is not new in this country which, for several years, has been worried about Russian expansionist tendencies.

The border between Finland and Russia stretches for 1,340 kilometres. © graphic studio France 24

Fast-track voting

Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 caused panic, prompting many surrounding countries to rethink their defense policies.

In Finland, this concern about Russia's powerful neighbour was already very present since the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014. Two years later, the government conducted a study on the possibility of the country joining the Alliance, but no consensus was reached.

In December 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin tried to negotiate an agreement with the United States to obtain a guarantee of NATO's non-expansion to the East. A request rejected by Washington and which had also provoked a very firm reaction from the Finnish president.

"I say it and I repeat: Finland is free to consider the possibility of military alignment and a request for NATO membership," he warned during his greeting speech in January 2022, denouncing the questioning of "the sovereignty of several states" of the EU.

Relaunched by the Head of State on this occasion, the debate on NATO membership was finally the subject of an accelerated vote in the Finnish Parliament at the beginning of March.

While the legislative elections are held on Sunday, "the government wanted to pass this vote before the end of the parliamentary debates," said Sophie Enos-Attali, a teacher-researcher in political science specializing in security issues in the region. "Its goal is to participate as a member in the next NATO summit in Vilnius next July."

Paradigm shift

For the researcher, the Russian invasion of February 2022 acted as a "catalyst", accelerating a reflection already underway in the country, marked by a difficult and painful history with Russia.

Controlled for a century by its neighbor until the Russian Revolution of 1917, the Nordic country has since faced it twice, during the Winter Wars (1939-1940) and the Continuation War (1941-1944), losing both. It was at the end of the Second World War that Finland adopted a posture of neutrality, which evolved towards military non-alignment with the disappearance of the USSR.

"This policy has long been considered a protection vis-à-vis Russia, for fear of a new conflict with its neighbor," said Sophie Enos-Attali. "But mentalities have changed in Finland on this political posture resulting from the Cold War, now mostly perceived as belonging to the past. Added to this was the feeling of increased vulnerability caused by the war in Ukraine, which has definitely tipped opinion."

Ambiguity of the Russian threat

In November 2022, 78% of Finns said they were in favour of the country's accession to NATO, compared to 60% a few months earlier, in March 2022, at the very beginning of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine.

While citizens now see integration as the best way to guard against an attack by Russia, Moscow's reaction to this policy change remains a source of concern.

While the Kremlin openly views former members of the Soviet bloc as its sphere of influence, it maintains a more ambiguous position vis-à-vis its Nordic neighbors.

In May 2022, Vladimir Putin said that the integration of Sweden and Finland into NATO would not pose a direct threat to Russia. A very different exit from that of his Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergueï Ryabkov, who declared a few days earlier that this accession was a "serious mistake" that would have "considerable consequences".

Keeping hot and cold going, the Russian embassy in Stockholm this week cracked a devastating post, threatening Sweden and Finland if they join the alliance: "You can be sure that the new members of the hostile bloc will become a legitimate target for Russia's retaliatory measures, including military measures."

On the NATO side, the atmosphere is quite different: Jens Stoltenberg is already preparing to sabotage the champagne. "I look forward to raising the flag of Finland at NATO headquarters in the coming days," said the Secretary General of the Alliance on Friday, visibly enthusiastic about the prospect of welcoming Finland into the "NATO family".

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