MOSCOW – The "Day of Unity" between the peoples of Russia and Belarus, celebrated on April 2 of each year, has a new content after both countries came under the same sword from Western sanctions, which in turn accelerated the process of rapprochement between the two countries, after years of hesitation and divergence.
Years earlier, relations between Moscow and Minsk could hardly be considered clear, punctuated by mutual accusations of delaying long-talked mergers between the two countries, voices from Minsk talking about the threat to Belarusian sovereignty by Russia, and calls for a more independent foreign policy from Moscow.
The enemy of my enemy
The situation began to change significantly following the imposition of sanctions by Western countries on Belarus over the events of 2020, when protests erupted in the country after the presidential election, during which Moscow unreservedly supported President Alexander Lukashenko.
Relations between Minsk and Moscow improved further after the start of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, with Belarus providing territory to the Russian military, and sharing with Russia Western pressure and sanctions, although it was not directly involved in the war.
Beginnings
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, diplomatic relations between Moscow and Minsk were established on June 25, 1992. On December 8, 1999, a treaty establishing a strategic partnership was signed between the two countries, which preceded the signing of the Russian-Belarusian group in April 1996, and on April 2, 1997, the culmination of understanding was achieved by forming a union between the two countries.
The legal basis of Russian-Belarusian relations consists of more than 300 treaties and agreements. The two countries are also bound by multilateral agreements within the framework of the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
Russia and Belarus have been cooperating within the framework of the Commonwealth of Independent States (since 1991), the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) (since 2002), the Customs Union (since 2010) and the Common Economic Space (since 2012). The two countries are members of the Eurasian Economic Union, which also includes Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan since 2015.
As enshrined in Russian foreign policy doctrine, Belarus is a strategic ally of Russia, and strengthening cooperation with it within the framework of the Union State is a key priority for Moscow, along with integration within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union.
Rugged merger
The integration process between the two countries has lasted for more than 20 years, punctuated by various forms of complications, due to divergent strategic interests, and for considerations of a purely economic nature.
But even in conditions of hesitation and uncertainty, the 1999 treaty constituted a framework for a legal norm, which later included the adoption of a federal constitution, the creation of supranational bodies (including a bicameral parliament, judicial institutions, etc.), the formation of a single economic space, the introduction of a common currency, the unification of energy regimes, the harmonization of trade and tariff policies, and the introduction of a single tax system.
However, for subjective and objective reasons, these processes have not yet been fully completed.
Economic lung
Russia provides regular loans to Belarus to boost its financial stability, including repaying and servicing state debt and replenishing its gold and foreign currency reserves.
According to data from the Belarusian Ministry of Finance, the volume of Minsk's debt from Russian government loans from June 2019 to date amounted to $ 7.55 billion.
But even lending operations were not without problems, as happened in 2019, when Belarus expected to obtain a new loan from Russia worth $ 630 million to be used to refinance debt obligations owed to the Russian side, but "problems" faced the process of attracting funds, so Belarus went to the Chinese "alternative", and signed an agreement with Beijing to provide an urgent loan of $ 500 million.
Russia is the main supplier of oil and gas to Belarus, with refineries in the former Soviet republic operating on Russian raw materials. For Minsk, the re-export of crude and refined oil from Russia that is not subject to duties (before Western sanctions) was one of the main sources of income, and with the entry into force of Western sanctions, the Belarusian budget lost a significant part of its income.
Belarus is also heavily dependent on Russian gas, importing about 20 billion cubic meters of it annually. In addition, the construction of the Belarusian nuclear power plant is the largest bilateral investment project between the two countries, which was agreed in 2012.
War with Ukraine and unity of destiny
For Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, the past year has not been easy, with Minsk once again falling into the circle of targeting Western sanctions, part of which was due to the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Although Minsk has always been subject to various restrictions, it has never been subject to such serious restrictions before.
At the same time, Russia found itself under unprecedented sanctions pressure, and most of these restrictions also affected Belarus.
Most Russian observers almost agree that this has brought the two countries closer together, as Lukashenko himself said in early March, "If Russia collapses, Belarus will be next, not even next, because we will collapse together."
Lukashenko's rhetoric implies that if Moscow loses in the confrontation with the West, Minsk will then fall, and therefore, Minsk seems to have made up its mind with a long-term and, perhaps, eventual alliance with Moscow.
Lukashenko's statement on Friday that if necessary he would agree with Putin to introduce strategic nuclear weapons into his country may be the highest level of support Belarus has expressed for Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union.