• Foreign Ministry Sanchez will ask Xi Jinping to mediate with Putin and not give him weapons for the "brutal and illegal aggression of Russia against Ukraine"

The relationship between Europe and China is too important to be put at risk "by not clearly setting out the terms of a healthy compromise." It is a demographic, economic, military power, a nuclear power and a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Also a human rights violator who plays dirty by pressuring the weakest, but is destined to be one of the superpowers, or perhaps the only one, that sets the course of the next century. But precisely for that reason, it is more important than ever to stand up, set limits and stand on the red lines, because then it may be too late. But without breaking relations or forcing a rupture "that is not viable, nor is it in the interest of Europe. Disengaging from China is not an option, our relations are not black or white, and neither can our response." That has been the message that this Thursday has launched the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in one of the most anticipated, most anticipated and also most applauded speeches of recent times.

"China is trying to change the international order: it is becoming more repressive at home and more assertive abroad," the Commission warns, and if the EU wants to have a place on the international chessboard it must move quickly and cannot depend on the US. These days the Spanish president, Pedro Sánchez, is in Beijing on the first European visit to the country after the meeting that Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin held in Moscow recently, and after the country's diplomatic efforts to offer a unique peace plan (Josep Borrell rightly says that it takes an enormous intellectual effort to truly consider it a plan for peace) between Russia and Ukraine. Next week Von der Leyen herself and French President Emmanuel Macron will travel there. And Brussels wants to lay the foundations so that there are no mistakes.

"Von der Leyen has delivered the speech on China that Europe was waiting for. It is a clear and solid vision of the relationship that recognizes that China has changed and that Europe's response must too, with an economic security strategy at the center," said Noah Barkin, China expert at Rhodium Group.

The EU believes that China has changed and there is no going back. Its position has become more authoritarian internally and increasingly aggressive and dominant outside, from Taiwan to Africa to relations with Washington to threatening and punishing partners like Lithuania. Imprisoning Western citizens, spying with little disguise, going a little further every day, pushing the limits.

"More distant and difficult relationships"

Von der Leyen's message, after China has been a secondary issue in the last decade and previous contacts have been very smooth, desperately seeking not to offend or anger an actor they consider as vital as dangerous, is that this no longer applies. "It is clear that our relations have become more distant and more difficult in recent years. We have seen a very deliberate hardening of China's overall strategic stance," she said. "And now it has been accompanied by an increase in increasingly assertive actions. There was a stark reminder of that last week in Moscow during President Xi's state visit. Far from being discouraged by the atrocious and illegal invasion of Ukraine, President Xi maintains his "boundless friendship" with Putin.

The important thing is not so much the rhetoric as the message. Brussels starts from the premise that there has been "a change of dynamics in the relationship between China and Russia. It is clear from this visit that China sees Putin's weakness as a way to increase its influence over Russia. And it is clear that the balance of power in that relationship, which for most of the last century favored Russia, has now been reversed." And that has monumental consequences for the international order and the balance of forces.

There are no errors or improvisation in the words of Von der Leyen, they are measured to the millimeter. If China, as he says, "has turned the page on the era of 'reform and opening-up' and is moving into a new era of security and control," Europe must respond. Without fuss, without looking for the shock, but neither looking the other way, burying the head like an ostrich or turning the other cheek. "We can hope that there will be an effort to make China less dependent on the world and the world more dependent on China, In his report to the recent Party Congress, President Xi told the Chinese people to prepare for the struggle ... the clear goal of the Chinese Communist Party is a systemic change of the international order with China at the center," von der Leyen warned.

"Disengaging is not an option"

Nothing that analysts have not been saying for decades, and a position still distant but closer to that of Washington, which pivoted before and is preparing for the clash at all levels. That is why the reaction here must cover all fronts. Strengthen the rules-based system, the free market, diplomacy and one-on-one dealing. "With all this in mind, our response must begin by working to strengthen the international system itself," von der Leyen said. "We need to strengthen the institutions and systems in which countries can compete and cooperate and from which they benefit. That is why it is vitally important that we ensure diplomatic stability and open communication with China. I believe that it is not feasible, nor is it in Europe's interest, to disengage from China. Our relationships are not black or white, and neither can our response. That is why we must focus on reducing risk, not disengaging, and this is part of the reason why I will soon visit Beijing together with President Macron."

Brussels has an offer of understanding, cooperation, collaboration, but that should be in different terms. China doesn't have much interest because that's how it's doing well. He has never been in a hurry, time seems to play in his favor, demographic currents too. He knows that Europe needs it in international relations, in trade relations, for the fight against climate change or now to try to stop the war in Ukraine. He will say yes and no, smiling but not committing to anything, condemning war but not seeking peace, claiming territorial integrity but reiterating his friendship with the aggressor.

"I think we need to leave room for discussion about a more ambitious partnership and how we can make competition fairer and more disciplined. And, more broadly, we need to think about how we can work together productively in the global system in the future and on what challenges," von der Leyen said in her applauded speech. "There are some islands of opportunity that we can build on." The theory, the new theory, is fine, but the practice is much more complicated.

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  • China
  • Ursula von der Leyen
  • Europe
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  • Josep Borrell
  • European Commission
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  • United States
  • Pedro Sanchez
  • Africa
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  • Vladimir Putin
  • Emmanuel Macron
  • Articles Pablo R. Suanzes