Brazil is holding its breath. Jair Bolsonaro returns to Brasilia on Thursday, March 30 after a three-month stay in the United States, determined to play a major political role in Lula's Brazil, which narrowly beat him in the October presidential election.

By returning to his country, the former far-right president, targeted by a series of investigations, is exposed to legal proceedings and ineligibility as well as possible imprisonment.

Bolsonaro, head of state from 2019 to 2022, is scheduled to arrive in Brasilia on a commercial flight from Orlando, Florida, his Liberal Party (PL) announced.

He had left Brazil on December 30, even before the end of his mandate. Thus, he boycotted the inauguration ceremony of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, to which, according to protocol, he should have passed the presidential sash.

"I will not lead the opposition, I will participate (in the political life) of my party, bringing my experience," he told CNN Brazil on Wednesday night at the Orlando airport, before flying.

After an electoral defeat that plunged him into silence or even depression, Bolsonaro, 68, had declared last week his intention to "travel the country", and "to do politics" to defend ultra-conservative values in Brazil.

This return is greeted with nervousness in Brasilia where the Military Police will ensure in large numbers that no gathering takes place. It "will be ready to quickly close access to the esplanade of the Three Powers (in the heart of the capital, editor's note) as well as to the airport," Sandro Alevar, Secretary of Public Security of Brasilia, said Wednesday at a press conference.

But the day could be tense: on social networks, Bolsonaro supporters were called to greet him in large numbers at the airport, even if it is not planned that he addresses them.

PL deputy Gustavo Gayer called for "solid support" at the airport to "pave the way for Bolsonaro to return to the presidency."

Lula in trouble

Politically, "Lula will now have to govern with an organized opposition, it could make a big difference," Jairo Nicolau, a political scientist at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), told AFP.

As soon as he arrives, Bolsonaro must go to the premises of the PL, under escort of vehicles of the Military Police, like any ex-president. He is to be welcomed by Valdemar Costa Netto, the leader of this party under whose colors he had run for president, and by deputies, allied senators and former ministers.

The Liberal Party, which confirmed to AFP that Bolsonaro, by becoming its honorary president, would receive monthly emoluments of nearly 7,000 euros, made a great publicity of the arrival of the former head of state.

Bolsonaro's return to Brazil comes as President Lula goes through a sequence deemed bad by analysts, less than three months after taking office.

After contracting pneumonia, he had to postpone this week a state visit to China on which his advisers were counting to restore his image following various controversies and untimely statements.

After the premises of the PL, Bolsonaro must go to his future residence, in a very protected residential complex in the neighborhood of Jardim Botanico in Brasilia, with his wife Michelle.

The 41-year-old devout evangelical has just taken over as head of the women's wing of the PL and could possibly run for president in 2026.

Five Supreme Court Investigations

Bolsonaro enters into controversy over luxury jewelry, worth several million euros, received from Saudi Arabia that he would have illegally entered Brazil. He has just returned part of it.

But he is especially in the crosshairs of justice for several cases and has lost his immunity.

Jair Bolsonaro is under five investigations at the Supreme Court in cases that could lead to prison sentences.

The most recent concerns his role in the January 8 riots against the places of power in Brasilia, ransacked by thousands of his supporters.

The other four relate to alleged crimes during his tenure: disinformation about the electronic ballot box system or Covid.

Jair Bolsonaro is also under 16 investigations at the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE).

He could be sentenced to eight years of ineligibility, which would prevent him from running for president in 2026.

With AFP

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