Between the unity of its ranks and the ambitions of its leaders. What are the chances of the Turkish opposition ousting Erdogan in the presidential election?

ANKARA - With 4 candidates, the countdown to the Turkish presidential elections scheduled for May 14 continues, and at the top of the candidates comes the current President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, head of the Justice and Development Party, and the traditional opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, head of the Republican People's Party, in addition to both the head of the Balad Party, Muharrem Ince, and Sinan Ogan.

Opinion polls gained media momentum amid a state of follow-up, and the latest statistics were as follows:

March 20 Janar Research Center (independent) poll:

The Justice and Development Party (AKP) 40.7%, the CHP 23.1%, the Good Party 7%, the Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) 10.8%, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) 7.6%, the Balad Party 4.7%, and the New Welfare Party 1.4%.

Center for Social Studies Unialem poll (independent) March 18-20:

The Justice and Development Party (AKP) 30.2%, the CHP 24.2%, the Good Party 8%, the Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) 8.4%, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) 5.9%, the Balad Party 3.1%, and the New Welfare Party 1.4%.

MAC Research Center (independent) March 8-15:

The Justice and Development Party (AKP) 34.2%, the Republican People's Party (CHP) 26%, the Good Party (IYY) 13.6%, the Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) 9.3%, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) 6.3%, the Balad Party 1%, and the New Welfare Party 1.3%.

Erdogan and his experience

According to experts, with the rise of Erdogan's star over the past years, he has enjoyed the confidence of the Turkish voter with his balance of achievements and development.

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, academic and political expert Muhammad Ali Murat said that Erdogan is the strongest candidate, as he has more than 20 years of internal and external political experience, adding that "the close relationship with the conservative sector established by Erdogan is the most important element that supported him in power so far."

"Despite the reality of the opposition, which has no reasonable promises other than the promise of an ambiguous and complex political system, Turkey's recent economic difficulties are the biggest obstacle Erdogan may face in the elections.

Hussein al-Ali, an academic researcher on Turkish affairs in Ankara, agreed that Erdogan's strengths are his long organizational and administrative experience, since he was mayor of Istanbul in 1994.

He adds to Al Jazeera Net that as a result of Erdogan's experience, there is a sense of confidence by many voters, in addition to that Erdogan is leaning on a strong party base.

Al-Ali pointed out that the "nationalist, conservative Islamic" identity of Erdogan and his party makes him have the support of a broad segment of Turkish society.

Turkey was hit by a devastating earthquake on February 50 that hit the south of the country, killing more than 400,22 people, and more than <>,<> buildings were damaged, including the collapse of about <>,<> buildings.

According to Mehmet Ali Merat, Erdogan's standing was shaken in the first days after the earthquake, but the president's performance in the face of the earthquake increased his standing among the people, while the opposition's performance was simple.

Unifying the ranks of the opposition

In the face of Erdogan, the opposition was forced to unite with six parties under the so-called "six-party table", before renaming its alliance the "Nation Alliance" led by Kılıçdaroğlu.

Kılıçdaroğlu has not won any elections against Erdogan since the latter took power in 2002, except for a partial lead in the 2019 municipal elections and his party's election to the mayors of Ankara and Istanbul.

Kılıçdaroğlu has been making multiple visits to different parties in an attempt to rally support for the Turkish opposition, including last week's visit to the Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), which has not announced an independent candidate in the election, in an apparent sign of opposition support.

According to Mert, "previous elections show that HDP votes largely go to the side to which voters are directed."

However, Erdogan still has the ability to attract some of these votes from the conservative Kurdish segment, the political expert added.

"These votes will play a decisive role in determining the winning candidate, and in addition, the increased influence of the Kurdish party will distance the nationalist votes of the Good Party from Kılıçdaroğlu," he said.

Opposition competition among themselves

On the other hand, Muharrem Ince's candidacy complicates the scene for Kılıçdaroğlu, because the former's popularity deducts from the opposition's balance, especially since Ince is a former member of the Republican People's Party.

Ince was the former candidate of the Republican People's Party (CHP) in the last presidential elections in 2018, which Erdogan won from the first round with 52.59%, and Ince came in second place with 30.64%.

Ince resigned from the party on February 2021, 17, to establish his party on May <> of the same year.

Kılıçdaroğlu and Ince met last Wednesday at the headquarters of the Balad party, in an attempt to dissuade him from running in the elections, according to observers.

Ince is seeking "answers to his aspirations for the CHP leadership, which will be vacant from Kılıçdaroğlu instead of participating in the government," Mert said.

According to al-Ali, no tangible result was reached from the meeting, as he "only accepts that he is the candidate of the opposition and sees himself as the most capable of representing it."

Murrat, on the other hand, added that with Erdogan's victory, the liquidation of the six-table alliance will pave the way for Ince to "pursue his political ambitions."

Opinion polls point to a significant lead for Erdogan (left) over rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu (agencies)

Will the elections be decided from the first round?

Observers believe that the candidacy of Sinan Ogan, a former politician in the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), known for his anti-Syrian refugee statements and candidate for the "Ata" alliance (meaning ancestors), will contribute - as is the case of Ince - to cutting the votes of the opposition leader and raising the chance of Erdogan winning.

According to Ali, Ogan, due to his orientation, "will be drawn from the votes of extremists who support the nationalist Good Party and the Nationalist Movement Party, but they will be marginal votes, especially from the MHP being in power."

The two political experts ruled out the possibility of deciding the elections from the first round in the presence of 4 candidates.

"It is difficult for any party to get more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round. However, Erdogan is more fortunate than Kılıçdaroğlu."