"At the same time as Finland becomes a NATO member, uncertainty increases for Sweden"

The decision in the Turkish parliament was expected but is still a miscalculation for Sweden as it definitely confirms that Finland is now taking the step into NATO, while Sweden will have to continue to wait outside.

This was precisely the situation Swedish politicians wanted to avoid when a majority of the riksdag parties decided that Sweden should submit a membership application to NATO.

Admittedly, Sweden is now more or less surrounded by NATO countries, which of course strengthens Swedish security. In addition, several major NATO countries have promised Sweden support and help in the event of an attack.

Greater risk of provocations

But there are downsides to being left out. The most important is that Sweden, unlike Finland, now lacks NATO's formal security guarantees. Another is that in the long run it may be difficult to maintain close defense policy cooperation with Finland, which will now become part of NATO's defense organization. A third is that Sweden is now at greater risk of being subjected to provocations and influence operations by Russia. A fourth is that Sweden ends up in a more vulnerable position in the event of a conflict in the Baltic Sea.

However, an important factor here is time. If the Swedish process is delayed for a few weeks, or maybe a month, this may not matter so much. It would be more serious if Swedish membership were to drag on.

Foreign Minister Tobias Billström, who previously said that he is convinced that Sweden is a NATO member at the summit in Vilnius in July, has publicly now lowered expectations. It may take longer than that, says the foreign minister.

The uncertainty surrounding Sweden's NATO process

The entire NATO process has become increasingly uncertain for Sweden recently. And there are two things above all.

The first is President Erdogan's fierce attacks on Sweden at the press conference held in Ankara when the Turkish president announced that Finland would be approved. The criticism was mainly that Sweden does not intervene hard enough against terrorists. The statements do not indicate that Turkey is about to reconsider its position on Sweden.

In addition, an election will be held in Turkey on 14 May, which may also mean that it will be difficult in practical terms for the Turkish Parliament to ratify Sweden's application for membership before the summit in Vilnius. After that, Turkey's parliament is closed until October.

The second factor that creates uncertainty about Swedish NATO membership is the new signals from Hungary. In connection with the Hungarian parliament's ratification of Finland as a NATO member, demands were made on Sweden, which include that Hungary demand a promise to avoid criticism from Sweden that the country does not comply with the rule of law and the like. Foreign Minister Tobias Billström does not want to make any such promises.

How long – or short – the Swedish path to NATO membership will thus be is thus currently unclear.

Failure for NATO if Sweden is not included

After today's decision in Turkey, only formalities remain before Finland can be formally admitted as a full member of NATO. Thus, Finland will be protected by the NATO defence alliance and its security guarantees in Article 5 of the NATO Treaty.

Sweden must now pin its hopes on the pressure from other countries that will gradually increase until the summit in Vilnius. Because even for NATO, it would be a failure if Sweden does not become a member by then.