A new Scottish First Minister will be appointed on Monday 27 March, after the surprise resignation of Nicola Sturgeon in February, with the delicate mission of reviving a weakening independence movement.

Members of the Scottish National Party (SNP) have until Monday noon to decide between the three candidates. The result of this internal election that began two weeks ago will be known later today.

Scottish Local Government has jurisdiction over many matters including education, health and justice. More broadly, this election is important for the future of the United Kingdom, whose divisions between the four constituent nations (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) have been aggravated by Brexit.

Current Finance Minister Kate Forbes and Health Minister Humza Yousaf are the favourites, according to an Ipsos poll conducted between March 17 and 21. Ash Regan, a former minister under Nicola Sturgeon, is in third place.

The former First Minister, a staunch campaigner for Scottish independence, bid farewell to the local Parliament in Edinburgh on Thursday. "It will either be the second female prime minister or the first prime minister from an ethnic minority," she said. She called on her successor to "never forget that everything in this position is an opportunity to do something better for someone somewhere in Scotland".

Scotland has a population of 5.5 million.

45% for independence in the 2014 referendum

But support for independence, at the heart of the SNP's left-leaning party, is stagnating.

According to a YouGov poll on 13th March 46% of respondents are in favour of independence (in comparison with 50% last month). Including the undecided, the proportion drops to 39%. In the referendum held in 2014, 45% of Scots voted for independence.

The independence cause was however revived by Brexit, which was opposed by 62% of the Scots, the SNP seeing a break with London as the way to return to the European Union.

"Many of us are disappointed that there is not a more sustained movement for independence," said Kate Forbes, 32. "There is no path to independence without persuading 'no' voters to vote 'yes'," she added.

For Humza Yousaf, 37, too much time has been spent highlighting the failures of the British government in London and not enough time creating a vision for an independent Scotland.

Gender change

According to Ipsos, Kate Forbes is the Scots' favourite candidate, with 27% of the opinion in favour, against 22% for Humza Yousaf and 14% for Ash Regan. But within the SNP, Humza Yousaf comes out on top, with 38%. Kate Forbes is not far behind with 37% (22% for Regan).

Kate Forbes had a difficult start to the campaign because of her conservative views. She is a member of the Free Church of Scotland, which is opposed to same-sex marriage and abortion.

Humza Yousaf, who is close to Nicola Sturgeon, is criticised for his record in his various positions in the Scottish government.

Nicola Sturgeon, 52, announced her resignation on February 15 to everyone's surprise, explaining that she no longer had the necessary energy after eight years in power.

She also found herself in trouble after London blocked a controversial law facilitating gender change. This law was to allow the recognition of gender change, without medical advice and from the age of 16.

The British Supreme Court ruled last year that the Scottish government cannot hold a new referendum without London's agreement. But Nicola Sturgeon said she had "full confidence" that her successor would succeed in leading Scotland to independence.

With AFP

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