"The security of the State of Israel has been and will always be the mission of my life."

Before Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant uttered his words, which came in response to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's dismissal hours earlier, the man spent busy days trying to persuade Netanyahu to reverse his controversial judicial amendment plan: "For the sake of Israel's security, for the sake of our sons and daughters, the legislative process must be stopped now, to enable the State of Israel to celebrate Passover and Independence Day together, and to mourn Holocaust Remembrance Day."

Gallant has repeatedly spoken to Netanyahu that going ahead with this plan would bring woes to the military, and what scared him most was that the rope of protest initiated by reservists would stretch in the most important military institutions, such as the Air Force, Military Intelligence, Special Operations Units, and Electronic Units. The man then warned that anger could spill over into full-time soldiers, which could lead to deep and dangerous divisions within the occupation army, and harm the readiness of its elements for operations at a time when the occupying power is facing significant and imminent threats, such as Iran's nuclear program, Palestinian attacks, and recent tensions with Lebanese Hezbollah.

Barely a day after Galant's remarks, the Israeli prime minister summoned him and informed him of his dismissal, after the proposed amendments had ignited demonstrations in Israel for weeks. (Getty Images)

Galant's fears were not seemingly speculation, as worrying signals were already coming in. Perhaps the most prominent of these signs is the threat of some reserve officers in the Israeli occupation army – without revealing their personal identities – not to serve in the army if the judicial amendments are passed, because they "destroy everything that we served and fought for," as they said in a statement on February 24.

Perhaps these fears are what led Gallant to break his silence and bring his reservations out of the secret circle of government consultations into the open, where he appeared on television last Saturday night, telling the Israeli people that the IDF men are angry and frustrated to a degree he has never seen before, implying the military's dissatisfaction with what the Netanyahu government is doing.

For Netanyahu, that was the straw that broke the camel's back, and the moment he decided to tell everyone that he was determined to go as far as possible in order to pass these amendments. Barely a day after Galant's remarks, the Israeli prime minister summoned him and informed him of his dismissal, after the proposed amendments had ignited demonstrations in Israel for weeks, which had reached a peak in the past few days, with many in Israel and abroad arguing that these amendments undermined the independence of the judiciary in favor of the Knesset and the government seizing the lion's share of power, thus perpetuating the dominance of the extreme right, which has been winning an increasing share of the vote. Right-wing defenders of the project see it as ridding the occupying power of the domination of an unelected authority, the judiciary, and liberating it from the power of judges as guardians of the will of the Israeli people, who are no longer forced to adhere to the traditional liberal and democratic formula on which the Zionist state was founded nearly seven decades ago.

This heated conflict, in which the army has become a major pillar, leads us to a fundamental question about the nature of civil-military relations in Israel, in light of the unprecedented political tension in the country due to the rise of the most extreme government in the history of the Zionist state. Israel has long regarded itself as a state of complex, democratic institutions with a delicate balance between social blocs and numerous political institutions, but social transformations in Israel, as in many surrounding countries, have shattered and continue to destroy many of what many have considered untouchable foundations for decades. Are those foundations still firm enough to distance Israel from any chaotic scenario that undermines its constitutional nature? Or is it, like its neighbors, on a date with a radical change in the rules of the game with which the specter of a military coup becomes strongly present on the political stage?

Angry officers

Israeli soldiers fear that the judicial changes and their consequences will result in them being subject to war crimes charges in international courts. (Anatolia)

On the morning of March 9, Eshel Kleinhaus, a former commando officer, chose the most appropriate place in his view to deliver his message of protest against Prime Minister Netanyahu's planned changes in the structure of the judicial system, as he demonstrated with about 100 of his comrades in the combat units of the occupation army in front of the headquarters of the "Kohlit Policy Forum" in occupied Jerusalem, which many consider the main architect of the plans of the Netanyahu government, especially the weakening of the Supreme Court in the occupying state. Kleinhaus stood up with slogans against the judicial amendments, waved Israeli flags with several protesters, and threw piles of rubbish at the forum's headquarters.

The political shifts in Israel are not limited to the participation of senior officers in demonstrations against the government, but the escalation has since reached a further point in the form of threats by some soldiers not to obey orders for training and military service, including soldiers from the most important units of the Israeli army such as the Electronic Warfare Unit, Military Intelligence, the Air Force, and even Shin Bet operatives. For example, 37 of the 40 reservists in No. 69 Strategic Air Squadron, whose planes have access to Iran, announced that they would not attend the usual training on March 1, 2023. Just about a week later, more than 6000,200 reservists signed a petition not to show up to protest the alleged "judicial reform," and about <> reservists sent a letter to dismissed Defense Minister Yoav Galant stating that they would not show up for service if the government did not stop its proceedings.

To understand military service, Israel imposes compulsory service for three years on men who have reached the age of 18, but many of them choose to join the reservists after the end of their term of office, which is voluntary rather than compulsory, which means that they are protected from possible punishment. They spend 30 days a year serving in frontline positions and participating in actual combat, so they must undergo training at least once a week, as they are relied upon to operate the air force and the special operations unit of Military Intelligence, as well as for the daily tasks of the Israeli army, especially in areas that require long technical knowledge, such as intelligence gathering.

Israeli military reservists demonstrate against judicial amendments. (Reuters)

Reservists appeared in large numbers in Israeli Operation Defensive Shield in Palestinian cities in 2002, the 2006 Lebanon war, and the recent successive campaigns of aggression against the Gaza Strip. Therefore, the fact that an increasing segment of these soldiers join the protesters and are willing to refrain from military service will be a crisis for Tel Aviv. For example, pilots joining the protests is a major dilemma, as nearly half of the Israeli Air Force's pilots are reservists, and they form the backbone of its operational capability, and their cessation of training can affect the readiness of the occupation army, specifically at a time when relations with Iran are tense and the occupation leaders talk about the importance of the Israeli army being ready to carry out any air strike against the Iranian nuclear program or interests associated with the Iranian regime. In the vicinity of the occupying power.

There are many reasons why the IDF is a stronghold of anti-government protests, chief among them that the army is the institution most sensitive to the infiltrations of the extreme Israeli right (many leaders of the occupation army consider right-wing infiltration a threat to the army), and more associated with the historical traditions of the occupying power. However, another equally important motivation motivating officers to oppose Netanyahu's judicial amendments is the fear that the judicial changes and their consequences will lead to them being subject to war crimes charges in international courts. Israel has long said that it has an independent legal and judicial system that prosecutes any military offenses or crimes of this kind, so there is no need for its soldiers to be subject to international investigation. Many Israeli officers thus regard the judicial system as a legal Iron Dome that distances them from being brought before international tribunals on war crimes charges.

The specter of a coup is not new

Netanyahu spent the first weeks after his government was inaugurated trying to pass what he calls "judicial reform," which was followed by an unprecedented escalation of protests. (Getty Images)

In 1996, when Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu first took office, senior military officers were quickly disillusioned with his government's policies, even not ruling out a military coup due to unrest within the military at the time. One of these disturbances at the time was related to Netanyahu's violation of the advice of Ami Ayalon, head of the Shin Bet security service, not to open an underground tunnel under the foundations of the Al-Aqsa Mosque, but Netanyahu ordered the opening of the tunnel that led to the outbreak of what is known as the "tunnel gift", which resulted in the death of dozens of Palestinians and the death of a number of occupation soldiers. By 2012, when Netanyahu was also prime minister, fears of a rebellion among the Israeli army were renewed, as Jewish extremists gained influence within the army that brought them to the top ranks, most of whom came from West Bank settlements and were raised on the beliefs of rabbis who called on them to disobey military orders if they contradicted their religious beliefs.

Decades ago, especially after the 1967 war, settlements in the West Bank became part of a pernicious plan by ultra-Orthodox Jews to settle the entire West Bank. According to left-wing Israeli writer Gershom Gorenberg, author of The Dismantling of Israel, men who believe in the sanctity of the Land of Israel are slowly climbing the ladder of (military) leadership, and the prospect of outright rebellion against the hierarchy of institutions looms, especially in the West Bank, which has become a parallel sphere to the constitutional Israeli state, where far-right movements and groups thrive.

With Netanyahu's return to power after 18 months in opposition last November, it was not surprising that a large percentage of soldiers working in West Bank settlements voted for right-wing and religious extremist parties, as they believe that their presence in the occupied West Bank is a crucial element from a religious perspective. The latest action took place on March 21, when the Israeli Knesset repealed legislation ordering the dismantling of four Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank.

Former Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi (left) expressed concern about the military's reshuffles before leaving office last December. (Reuters)

While Netanyahu spent the first weeks after his cabinet was inaugurated trying to pass judicial amendments, which were followed by an unprecedented escalation of protests, the Israeli army initially called for its removal from heated public debates, but its presence quickly became central to the impasse over the nature of the state the Israeli right wants to redefine. Not only has the current government sought to entrench Israeli rule in the West Bank and control the judiciary, but it has also submitted plans to restructure the army itself and the Ministry of Defense, and to take control of a special paramilitary police unit.

More clearly, Netanyahu has emerged to be moving toward decisive changes in the military to satisfy his coalition allies who have the power to dissolve his government. The first relates to modifications to the functions of the occupation police in the West Bank, and the second concerns how the occupation army supervises the occupied West Bank, for which the Israeli prime minister created a new position within the Ministry of Defense to oversee Area C of the occupied West Bank, a privilege granted by Netanyahu to his far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, which empowers him to regulate the planning of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and ensure that the occupation retains civilian control there.

Former Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi expressed concern about the military's reshuffles before he left office last December, as proposals for those amendments surfaced during negotiations for a new coalition government, setting a precedent for strained relations with the military before Netanyahu's government even took office. Moreover, senior army commanders warned that the amendments could provoke internal divisions and conflict between officers and soldiers, leading to the disintegration of the structure of the occupation army as an effective fighting force, and that expectations would be multiplied if the far-right's most important demand, the exemption of ultra-Orthodox Jews from military service, is met, not only de facto as it is today, but de jure. In an army where the influence of rabbis is growing day by day, fulfilling the demands of extremists and ultra-Orthodox parties to pass bills to legalize evasion of military service could create conflict within the corridors of the military and its leadership.

Social Contract and Military Leadership

The opposition agrees that the reforms are nothing more than an attempt to introduce an authoritarian, quasi-religious element into the governance structure of the Israeli occupation state. (Getty Images)

Israelis continued to circulate verbal threats by volunteer reservists not to serve in various army units, in the hope that they would remain mere pro forma protests that would not actually be translated. But on March 22, Israeli army commanders reported an already significant decrease in the number of ground reservists serving on the ground, announcing for the first time that only 57 percent of the reservists called up in the elite 551 parachute brigade were present, compared to 90 percent in normal times. This indicator was a shocking sign that the threat is easy to implement even at a critical time for the occupying power, as the blessed month of Ramadan has arrived, which usually brings more clashes with the Palestinians, resistance and people, and is one of the darkest times when the occupying power needs its reserve forces, and coincided with the threat of Palestinian prisoners to wage a comprehensive strike that threatens the occupation prison service.

Complicating matters further, the threats coincided with the expansion of the internal opposition in Israel, which now includes a long list of former senior security officials, former prime ministers, defense ministers, army chiefs of staff, deputy chiefs of staff and air force commanders, who have declared their opposition to the judicial amendments, most recently Kochavi, the former chief of staff. They agree that the reforms are nothing more than an attempt to introduce an authoritarian, semi-religious element into the structure of government in the Israeli occupation state, as the ultra-Orthodox are shifting more and more towards political presence, even allowing them to undermine the authority of the Supreme Court, by insisting on passing amendments that lead to politicians interfering in the process of selecting judges, allowing the Knesset to overturn Supreme Court decisions by a simple majority, and even removing some laws from judicial review.

After more than ten weeks of mass demonstrations, threats from reservists and warnings from senior Israeli experts about the potential damage to the security of the occupying power, its international relations and its internal cohesion, we can see that the chances of a large-scale constitutional crisis in the occupying power are increasing day by day. In the end, all options remain open, but if the proposed legislation, which leads to the overthrow of the legal system of the Israeli state as we know it, is stopped, and even if another scenario arises that allows the court to reverse the "legal reforms," the ultra-Orthodox religious parties in the ruling coalition will not let it pass easily, and their only option then will be to pressure Netanyahu to refuse to accept the judges' verdict as they like to call it or exit the coalition. In this case, the occupying power may face a constitutional crisis unprecedented in its history, which may be accompanied by widespread civil disobedience with the refusal of thousands of reservists to attend military service.

However, the army, the most vital institution of the occupying power, is at the heart of the current impasse, and although it is difficult to say with certainty whether a coup will take place, the crisis seems to be greater than "reforming or weakening the judiciary", and it really lies in the desire of a new right-wing coalition to redefine all major institutions in Israel, and the extent to which it is able to do so in the face of fierce resistance from Old statesmen.