"The path is clear: Europe remains technologically neutral," German Transport Minister Volker Wissing said in a tweet on Saturday (March 25th) to comment on the agreement reached between Berlin and the European Commission on the issue of combustion engines, which had been pending for several weeks because of Germany's blockade.

The EU has finally endorsed the transition to 100% electric engines in Europe after 2035... with one exception: new vehicles will be able to continue to be equipped with combustion engines if they use "CO2-neutral fuels", in the words of Volker Wissing.

A way for Berlin to obtain satisfaction on the subject of synthetic fuels (or e-fuels). The latter are produced without oil unlike gasoline, kerosene or diesel but from CO2 and low-carbon electricity, as defined by the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission.

"The idea is to have 'sustainable fuels', i.e. products that will continue to emit CO2 but which, in the total cycle, will have fewer emissions than cars that are propelled with oil," explains Thierry Bros, professor at Sciences Po and specialist in energy issues.

Fuels "attractive on paper"

These synthetic fuels, which are still under development, have several advantages: they have the same properties as petrol or diesel and they can be used without having to modify the engine of a vehicle – unlike electric vehicles that require technological modifications.

This ease of adaptation to combustion engines partly explains the interest that several car manufacturers have in the development of these e-fuels. Porsche in the lead. The Volkswagen subsidiary is developing a major project with Siemens in Chile, for which it has invested 100 million euros. Hydrogen is produced through electricity from wind turbines and, recombined with CO2 taken from the atmosphere, this hydrogen is transformed into liquid synthetic fuel that can be stored and transported.

The two manufacturers anticipate a production of 130,000 liters of synthetic gasoline by the end of 2022, 55 million liters in 2024 and 550 million liters in 2026. A drop of water compared to the more than 2,400 billion liters of oil (2.1 Gtoe) consumed worldwide in the road transport sector in 2021, according to the French Institute of Petroleum New Energies.

"E-fuels are attractive on paper, but, in reality, it is not a mature technology," says Nicolas Goldberg, energy expert at Columbus Consulting. "There are several energy-efficient operations: you have to produce hydrogen and recombine it with CO2. This is of no large-scale interest for individual vehicles. It is mainly luxury car manufacturers who are pushing in the direction of synthetic fuels."

In addition, several lobbies in Europe are campaigning in favour of these e-fuels: Concawe, Ufip Energies and Mobility... and the eFuel Alliance. This industrial lobby group includes major German automotive suppliers (Bosch, ZF, Mahle) as well as major oil and gas companies (ExxonMobil to Repsol).

After the EU-Germany agreement on combustion engines, the director of the eFuel Alliance, Ralf Diemer, also "welcomed" this compromise in a press release: "By sticking consistently and persistently to technological openness, the FDP (the liberal party of the German government coalition that worked to obtain this European concession, editor's note) has opened a door that should make possible in the long term the use of climate-friendly e-fuels for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles."

"Trojan horse" of the automotive industry?

Climate-friendly e-fuels... with certain limitations. Although carbon neutral, synthetic fuels still emit nitrogen oxides (NO2) and carcinogenic particles, says the NGO Transport & Environment (T&E).

According to T&E, these e-fuels "are also a much less environmentally friendly solution for cars than battery-electric cars". And to give this figure: by 2030, an electric car will emit 53% less CO2 over its entire life cycle than a car running on synthetic fuels.

The NGO also says that in 2035, "the production of e-fuels will only be in its infancy: only five million cars, out of the 287 million that should have the EU car fleet, could run on synthetic fuel." Finally, it believes that e-fuels are a "Trojan horse" of the automotive industry to extend the life of combustion engines and that this risks delaying investments in the electrification of the car fleet.

Nicolas Goldberg also sees in this agreement between the European Commission and Germany a "bad signal" sent to the European car industry: "This opens a breach. The car industry is being told, 'You can continue to produce combustion vehicles that are compatible with synthetic fuels', but they won't necessarily be filled with 100% e-fuels." A mixture of synthetic fuel with a fossil fuel (gasoline or diesel) would, for example, be theoretically possible.

Without succeeding in convincing over time in the automotive sector, synthetic fuels could, however, be used in the air or maritime sectors. As for the transition to all-electric in Europe from 2035, concludes Nicolas Goldberg, "it is a unique opportunity to rethink the use of the vehicle in our way of life."

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