Between political messages and periodic skirmishes. How does Washington see the recent clashes with Tehran's allies in Syria?

Washington — As military tensions in Syria mount, U.S. government circles seem to see the Syrian crisis at a crossroads of the Middle East conflict.

This comes after US President Joe Biden vowed additional measures to stop attacks targeting US bases in Syria, while Tehran threatened to retaliate following the US bombing of groups loyal to it there.

U.S. bases in northeastern Syria are being attacked by missiles and drones on the one hand, and on the other hand Russia has begun flying armed fighter jets over U.S. bases there, where at least 900 U.S. troops are present.

The Iranians feel that if they manage to inflict sufficient losses on U.S. positions, the Biden administration will leave Syria as it did with Afghanistan, and the Americans feel that if they respond in a strong way, it will deter Iran from further attacks.

In this context, Jawdat Bahgat, a professor at the Near East and South Asia Center at the US National Defense University, believes that "there is nothing new in these recent clashes between Iran and the United States in northeastern Syria, and one should not read them much," according to Al Jazeera Net.

John Kirby, the White House National Security Council's strategic communications coordinator, stressed that his country is not "seeking war with Iran, we are not looking for an armed conflict with that country or another war in the region, we are seeking to protect our mission in Syria, which is about defeating ISIS."

Reducing the U.S. footprint in the region

In turn, Barbara Slavin, an expert on Iran at the Stimson Institute in Washington, told Al Jazeera Net that she is not sure of the reason that sparked the recent clashes, but "Iran has long sought to reduce the US military footprint in the region, and it seems that it has agreed to the presence of 2500,<> American trainers in Iraq, but Iranian-backed militias are increasingly pursuing the small American contingent of troops in Syria."

In a hearing before the House Armed Services Committee last Thursday, U.S. Central Command commander Gen. Eric Corella said Iran and its proxies have fired drones or missiles 78 times at U.S. forces since the beginning of 2021, roughly one attack every 10 days.

Former Pentagon official and lecturer at the National Defense College in Washington, David Des Roches, believes that "Iran has made no secret of its desire to see the United States leave the entire Middle East region."

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Roche says that "the US presence in Syria – which has turned into a client state for Iran – angers the Iranians in particular, as the US presence prevents the Iranians from establishing a land bridge from Iran through Iraq and Syria towards Hezbollah in Lebanon, and prevents the regime of Bashar al-Assad from liquidating the Syrian opposition in the area of the Al-Tanf pocket."

Both the Iranians and the Assad regime feel that the Kurdish SDF will collapse quickly in the absence of U.S. support, and this allows Assad to retake oil-producing provinces and portray himself as a bulwark against the international threat of the Islamic State, so the Iranians have provided weapons (and in some cases guidance) to various Syrian militias to attack U.S. positions in Syria.

Calm or escalation?

"There are indications that various Iranian-sponsored Syrian militias may have distributed their military capabilities among civilian installations to deter the United States from launching major attacks that would cause civilian casualties, a practice used by Lebanon's Hezbollah that may have deterred a major and powerless blow against Iranian interests," Roche said.

However, both sides have confined their work to Syria, and if Iran strikes U.S. interests in Iraq or elsewhere, the United States will likely respond directly against an Iranian target outside Syria as a sign of deterrence. As before, Iranian proxies will declare their defiance of the Great Satan and return to the shadows."

Coinciding with the start of the rehabilitation of the Assad regime

Barbara Slavin links this escalation to growing signs that Syria will be rehabilitated and accepted into the Arab system, and these militias seem to have thought this was the right time to remind Washington that they are intervening in Syria against the wishes of the Assad regime and its Iranian patrons.

It further notes that "the recently announced Iran-Saudi deal and the Saudi promise to restore relations with Syria after Ramadan month are likely factors in the timing."

Slavin expects "more clashes in the near future, now that this episode of clashes is over."

Iranian leaders "have always called for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the entire Middle East and have always used their drones, missiles, speedboats, and cyber capabilities to make their point, while at the same time senior U.S. officials, including President Biden, have always insisted that the United States will maintain a strong presence in the Middle East," explains Jawdat Bahgat.

"Neither Tehran nor Washington is seeking all-out war, they are likely to try to calm the current crisis and are unlikely to stop their attacks and counterattacks. The challenge is that this shaky environment can prove unsustainable and open the door to miscalculation."

Asked about-for-tat attacks between militias affiliated with Iran and Washington, former Defense Secretary Mark Esper responded by saying that "the biggest question looming is: What's going on with Iran and its nuclear efforts? "We've heard some troubling news today that they may be getting closer and closer to possessing highly enriched uranium, and they may already have the capability to produce a nuclear bomb," he told CNN.