Washington — As part of the US reaction to the passage of a law by the Israeli Knesset (parliament) that immediately ends a decision in force since 2005 to evacuate 4 settlements in the northern West Bank, Washington expressed concern about the decision as provocative, amid fears that the Israeli move could push more tension during the month of Ramadan and the Jewish and Christian Passover holidays.
Officially, Washington opposes the recent settlement measures, and the Biden administration reiterates that the United States continues to believe that a two-state solution remains the best way to ensure that Israelis and Palestinians live side by side in peace and security.
Al Jazeera Net presents in the form of a question and answer the nature of the relationship between Biden and the government of Benjamin Netanyahu, and to what extent Washington can pressure Tel Aviv at a time when the Biden administration does not care about the file of the Palestinian issue.
What are the reasons for the recent American anger at the Netanyahu government and its policies towards the Palestinians?
Charles Dunn, a former White House and State Department official and expert at the Middle East Institute in Washington, believes that the United States is concerned about the repeal of the 2005 law, an action it considers inflammatory and also a direct reneging on a promise it made to former President George W. Bush, and the Biden administration wants the Israeli government to reverse the repeal of this law, or at least the promise not to allow settlers to move to Area C in the aftermath.
Dan wondered – in an interview with Al Jazeera Net – "whether the Netanyahu government has the will and ability to do any of that, and if not, it represents another headache for the Biden administration, which wants above all to keep things quiet in Israel and Palestine, and increases the indignation that many in the administration already feel about the direction of the new Israeli government."
In turn, the former official in the US State Department and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Gregory Avtandilian in an interview with Al Jazeera Net that "the Biden administration's talk against the new Israeli settlement law stems from its belief that it will fuel Palestinian anger and will lead to more violence in the occupied West Bank, and thus the issue of settlements has become one of many controversial issues affecting US-Israeli relations."
What are the limits of the "special relationship" between Washington and Tel Aviv?
Says an expert in international relations at the Institute for Democracy of the Arab World Now Adam Shapiro – in an interview with Al Jazeera Net – that "so far there have been no limits to the so-called Israeli-American special relationship, and what the Israeli government is doing is exploiting the lack of restrictions imposed by the United States to take measures for logical conclusions or extensions, the Israeli government does not respond to American demands at a time when Washington has a long record of not supporting its words with deeds when it comes to Israel."
Why is Netanyahu not afraid of Biden's wrath?
Avtandilian stated that Netanyahu believes that he can get away with such measures, because the majority in the US Congress is still very supportive of Israel regardless of its policies, although more Democrats are becoming critical of Israeli policies, especially those of far-right ministers, and yet Israel enjoys bipartisan support in Congress.
Biden understands these balances, so he will not threaten to cut off aid to Israel, and the US president and his administration believe that the Israeli right is pursuing policies that are likely to lead to violence, and will continue to speak out against these policies.
Why isn't Biden taking a tough stance on recent Israeli policies?
US President Joe Biden has a long history of supporting Israel during his chairmanship of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and during his 8 years as Vice President Obama.
Avtandilian pointed out in an interview with Al Jazeera Net that "the United States will continue to defend the security of Israel, especially against Iranian threats and its proxies, such as Hezbollah, and if there is a strong position by the Arab countries that recently met with the United States and Israel in Sharm el-Sheikh, the Biden administration may take steps against the political and diplomatic interests of Israel."
What considerations does Biden have in his calculations toward Netanyahu?
Aaron David Miller, a former official and expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, said in an interview with Al Jazeera Net that there are 3 reasons that Biden puts in his calculations that make him avoid confronting the Israeli government and its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as follows:
First, the confrontation decision will be a politically bad decision, as any public confrontation with Israel will not end with a change in its position, making confrontation useless, especially in light of the broad bipartisan support within Congress for Israel.
Second, Biden looks back at recent history when he was Barack Obama's vice president, where Obama did not succeed in pressuring Netanyahu, and Netanyahu challenged him and got a lot in this confrontation.
Third: The file of negotiations with Iran, Biden does not want to consume his credit in a file in which there is no return from confronting Israel, and he sees maintaining a good relationship with Netanyahu.
Does Biden Have Red Lines on Netanyahu's Government Extremism?
Biden realizes that there is no return from the political confrontation with Netanyahu, and there is no need for direct Washington intervention while the situation remains under relative control, and David Miller considered that Biden has 3 red lines regarding the policies of the Netanyahu government towards the Palestinians, namely:
- That Israel is trying to change the status of Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock.
- Begin a massive settlement operation through, for example, 300,<> Jews will be transferred to settle in Area C of the West Bank.
- For Israel to try to change the situation on the ground by force by deporting thousands of Palestinians or using excessive violence is unacceptable.
Does Biden care about the Palestinian issue?
Aaron Miller says that the issue of Palestine has become a mainly local issue that only the Palestinians, Israelis, Jordan and Egypt care about its developments, and it is no longer an important regional issue that preoccupies the major powers, and it is difficult to imagine the conflict turning into a regional war in which Arab countries participate, and the tension in it does not affect energy prices, and it no longer has a significant impact on the global agenda in light of the current focus on Ukraine globally, Iran, Yemen and the earthquake of Turkey and Syria regionally.
Does Washington have tools that can be used against Israel?
Charles Dunn argues that if Washington really wants to pressure Israel, it should stop defending it in international forums such as the United Nations, but if this forces Tel Aviv to make comprehensive course corrections, that is another story.
While Adam Shapiro sees that there are many tools that the Biden administration can use, from loan guarantees to diplomatic moves to visa bans to aid cuts, etc., yet so far the Biden administration has only been willing to issue moderate and carefully crafted cash.
He pointed out that there is a very long road to go before there are real consequences, although it begins only with political will, but it is now absent from the calculations of decision-makers in Washington.