AMMAN — The Jordanian Foreign Ministry and the surrounding political kitchens are active in the Jordanian capital, driven by an obsession with achieving a political breakthrough that ends the state of coolness with the Syrian regime, by putting an end to the rupture between Damascus and Arab countries, thus relieving Jordan's northern flank of the danger of the spread of armed gangs, and the smuggling of weapons and drugs.
In addition, Amman is looking to export electricity to Lebanon and Syria, a file that witnessed accelerated steps about a year ago, following the Beirut port bombing, in addition to Jordan's quest for exemptions from the sanctions of the US "Caesar" Act against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his collaborators.
The war in Ukraine, the intertwining of Turkish-Russian interests in the region, the announcement of the imminent resumption of Saudi-Iranian relations under Chinese auspices, and the acceleration of the pace of Arab rapprochement with Damascus; these are reasons outlined by political sources for Al Jazeera Net as circumstances that contributed to creating a suitable environment for the success of the Jordanian initiative for a political solution in Syria.
This comes as Saudi state television announced on Thursday evening that the kingdom was in talks with Syria to resume consular services between the two sides.
Reuters news agency quoted sources as saying that Syria and Saudi Arabia had agreed to reopen their embassies after severing diplomatic ties more than a decade ago.
Jordan's objectives of the initiative
Despite the acceleration of diplomacy, no one has a clear vision of the "Arab Initiative for a Solution in Syria," announced by Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi last September on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.
Its support from international bodies is also shrouded in ambiguity, but Western engagement - especially the United States - has rebounded after the exceptions granted to the Syrian regime after the earthquake that struck northern Syria and southern Turkey last month.
For former security chief retired Lieutenant General Hussein Hawatmeh, "coexistence with the weak Syrian regime is better than the emergence of an immature Syrian leadership and the start of Arab-Arab conflicts, at a time when Jordan is suffering from an economic crisis and the stalemate of the peace process," he told Al Jazeera Net.
Political analyst Amer Al-Sabaileh believes that Jordan is the most affected by the Syrian crisis, expressing his understanding of Jordan's official endeavor - at all levels - to protect its internal security, as the damage has exceeded the economic, social and demographic axes, to crime and drugs, as well as the changes that hit international priorities, in light of the Ukraine war, and the failure of the Algiers summit to return Syria to the Arab League.
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Al-Sabaileh pointed out that Jordan is leading the initiative as "a geographical partner for Syria, and affected at all levels; economically, demographically and security, and an ally of the United States, and has a US military presence, which gives it the opportunity to present its concerns to the United States clearly and without restrictions."
Al-Sabaileh does not believe that Jordan knows what it can offer under the title of "the Arab initiative for a political solution in Syria", but rather that it is closer to the idea of sensors and test balloons, which it uses to know the flexibility of each party, and the ability of the Syrians to compromise; the final version is unclear, especially since the Syrian regime believes that it is without opposition, or to be precise, "the opposition has lost its momentum and international attention, so the Syrian regime does not have to make concessions."
The American Position
Amer al-Sabaileh pointed out that the most important obstacles to the initiative lie in what the American eye sees in Syria, which focuses on the Russian military presence.
Meanwhile, House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Khaldoun sometimes separates the success of the Arab initiative from the need for American support.
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Hayna says that "Bashar al-Assad's visit to some Arab countries is clear evidence of the initiative's ability to live without American support," which contradicts the statement of Al-Sabayla, who asserts that "what determines the success of the initiative or not is the strength of Western and American support."
Khaldoun is sometimes secretive about the terms and details of the initiative, due to the importance of confidentiality of discussions between the concerned parties, expecting the initiative to succeed and be accepted by the Syrian regime as soon as it is announced.
In this context, political sources told Al Jazeera Net that "it is too early to judge the success of the initiative or not, but there is Arab-Arab communication, at various levels, but internationally there are crises that negatively affected the chances of international consensus in Syria, such as the Iranian nuclear file and the Ukrainian war.
The divergence of Western positions on the political solution in Syria so far, and the hardening of the European Union's position on the Syrian regime, push Arab countries to think about their interests away from external considerations, according to the sources.
Bashar al-Assad visited Oman in a behavior that he understood as an attempt to open American lines, but the visit did not seem to succeed, according to Al-Sabaylah, who reads Assad's visit to Russia and talking about new Russian military bases in Syria as a response with multi-directional messages.
On Tuesday, the United States reiterated its opposition to normalizing relations with Bashar al-Assad after he made his second visit in two years to the United Arab Emirates on Sunday.
US State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said in a statement to reporters, "We will not normalize relations with the Assad regime," stressing that the US administration does not encourage anyone to this normalization in the absence of any real progress towards a political solution.
"We urge all those engaged with Damascus to think honestly and reflect on how their engagement can help meet the needs of Syrians wherever they live."