Iraqi Parliament Provokes Sadr in "Saint Lego". Will the leader of the movement move the street again?

Baghdad – The recent move by Sadrist leader Muqtada al-Sadr has opened the door to new expectations that he may return to the political arena by fueling mass protests against the House of Representatives after he succeeded in voting on 7 out of 15 articles of the new draft election law, which included merging provincial and legislative elections into one law, and adopting a single-district system according to the Saint Lego proportional mechanism.

Muqtada al-Sadr had directed the day before Wednesday – in a move described as ambiguous – not to travel 8 of the most prominent leaders of the movement outside Iraq during the month of Ramadan blessed, where a statement issued by his office "informed the administrative official in Hanana brother Mustafa Yaqoubi, to inform Sheikh Mahmoud Al-Jayashi and Mr. Haider Al-Jabri and Mr. Aoun Al Nabi and Sheikh Hassan Al-Adhari and Mr. Jalil Al-Nouri and Sheikh Ahmed Al-Mutairi and Sheikh Kazem Al-Issawi and Sheikh Muayad Al-Asadi not to travel for the presence of private and public necessities. "

These developments come a day after a session held by the House of Representatives on March 20, in which its members present voted on half of the articles of the amended electoral law, which the Sadrist movement strongly rejects after it won the majority of parliamentary seats (73 out of 329 seats) in the October 2021 elections, which adopted the multi-district system for the first time in the Iraqi elections.

Those elections also witnessed the rise of 40 independent deputies from political currents and movements that emerged from the protest squares and relied on the multi-district system, without adopting the "Saint Lego" method of proportional representation, which relied - in the previous elections of 2021 - on dividing the votes of alliances by 1.9%, which led - at the time - to enhance the chances of winning large blocs and entities at the expense of small parties and independents, according to observers.

The Sadrist movement staged a sit-in inside the Green Zone last July amid a dispute over government formation (Iraqi press)

What does the chest plan?

The Iraqi Council of Representatives is seeking to complete the vote on the remaining paragraphs of the amended election law in a session announced by Parliament that it will be next Saturday, March 25, which paves the way for several scenarios put forward in conjunction with Sadr's "ambiguous" tweet that 8 of the leaders of his movement will not travel.

Meanwhile, a prominent member of the Sadrist movement, who spoke on condition of anonymity, revealed that Sadr rejects the new election law, half of which the parliament voted on, and threatened to support mass protests against parliament this time if the latter insists on voting on the rest of the law.

In an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera Net, the spokesman indicates that Sadr's support for popular and mass protests will be in an unannounced way this time, according to him, attributing the reason for this to prevent the recurrence of infighting as happened last August inside the Green Zone, stressing that Sadr will wait until the end of Ramadan to identify the response of large blocs on the ground, as he put it.

Political researcher Majasha al-Tamimi describes the amendment to the new election law as a "direct provocation" to the Sadrist movement and the Supreme Authority in Najaf, which had called in 2019 for the enactment of an election law that enjoys the confidence of the masses, adding, "Resorting to the amendment is a violation of Najaf, which wants a law that encourages massive electoral participation."

As a result, the Iraqi arena will be heading for a new political crisis, especially since most of the political forces that are outside parliament and even the real independent forces stand against the amendment, according to Tamimi.

With regard to Sadr's travel ban on some of his movement's leaders, Tamimi, who is close to the Sadrist movement, said that so far, the travel ban statement has not been interpreted by the movement, pointing out that this is related to specific issues that may be related to the positions that the movement will take later, as he put it.

MP Hadi Al-Salami: Independent MPs and activists agreed to demonstrate to prevent the passage of the new election law (Al-Jazeera)

Will the protests return?

For his part, independent MP Hadi al-Salami reveals an agreement between a group of independent MPs, some emerging parties, different categories of activists and civil movements to organize a large demonstration and sit-in in front of the Green Zone and the parliament building on Friday and tomorrow, in order to prevent the holding of the parliament session and refuse to pass the rest of the paragraphs of the third amendment law to the new electoral law.

According to Al-Salami – who spoke to Al Jazeera Net – the parliamentary session, in which he voted on half of the paragraphs of the amended election law, is a violation of the rules of procedure of the Council, as the session was scheduled to be held on March 19, but the Speaker of Parliament held it at dawn on March 20 / March, contrary to the rules of procedure of the Council, which stipulates that the agenda of any session is announced 48 hours before it is held, according to him.

Among the other irregularities - recorded by the independent MP on the amended law - is that the mechanism for submitting it was not through the Council of Ministers or the President of the Republic, as the draft law came as a proposal from a group of deputies, stressing that the draft law must come through the executive authority, which in turn will supervise the elections through the Commission, warning that the new law will take Iraq back steps, as it will strengthen partisanship and the struggle for power and money.

Baghdad's Green Zone witnessed clashes between the Sadrist movement and armed factions in late July (Iraqi press)

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Independent political researcher Diaa Wajid al-Muhandis agrees with a member of the Sadrist movement in the return of Sadr in a new formula that does not depend on storming the Green Zone and the House of Representatives, but through popular pressure and stopping the movement's joints in state ministries, expecting large protests and demonstrations after Ramadan in which the Sadrist movement participates with civil forces rejecting the amended election law.

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, the engineer adds that the major political parties are proceeding with new arrangements for the next stage without taking into account that Sadr is the first winner of the recent elections, as well as not participating even with the "shadow" in the government of Shia Sudani, which includes dozens of advisers without any of them from the current.

Contrary to previous opinions, political analyst Ali al-Bayati seems optimistic that the parliament will succeed in completing the vote on the new election law and passing it with a majority of votes owned by the State Administration Alliance – which includes Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish blocs – without any opposition except for some independent blocs affiliated with the protests.

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Al Bayati reduces the possibility of popular protests that prevent the holding of a session next Saturday, especially since most of the political forces, whether participating in parliament or the opposition, are fully prepared for any electoral process.