KHARTOUM – The battle between lists and blocs entitled to sign the final agreement to resolve the political crisis in Sudan, set for April 11, has intensified once again, paving the way for the formation of a new transitional government that will end military rule and transfer full power to a civilian leadership by April <>, according to a spokesman for the political process.
A group of partisan forces and armed movements boycotted the signing of the framework agreement signed between military leaders and about 52 civil and political forces on the fifth of last December, after the Freedom and Change Coalition refused to include the Democratic Bloc in the agreement, insisting that only two Darfur movements - Justice, Equality and Sudan Liberation - sign away from the bloc, which includes about 16 organizations.
With increasing pressure on civilian forces to expand the base of participation to ensure the formation of an agreed government, the Freedom and Change Coalition accepted the entry of new forces representing eastern Sudan, Darfur and civil entities, but so far it has been reluctant to include other groups affiliated with the Democratic Bloc under the pretext of supporting the actions of the army commander who overthrew the civilian government on October 21, 2021.
In this report, Al Jazeera Net seeks to answer the most prominent questions related to the final agreement.
We welcome the statements of the President of the Sovereign Council, General Burhan, today in North Kordofan-um Siala, the political process must be inclusive without exclusion and these statements must be translated into reality to ensure the success of the political process.
— Mubarak Ardol (@MubarakArdol) March 21, 2023
What do the divisions of forces rejecting and supporting the political process look like?
On the signed version of the framework agreement, vacant places were left allocated to political parties and forces that did not sign the agreement, but are still agreed parties to be part of the final political process, including: the Arab Socialist Baath Party, the Nasserist Party, the Sudan Liberation Movement and Army led by Minni Arko Minawi, the Justice and Equality Movement led by Jibril Ibrahim, as well as other professional and trade union forces.
The political process enjoys the support of the main parties in Freedom and Change, led by: the National Ummah, the Sudanese Congress, the Federal Assembly, a faction of the Professionals Association, and the Federal National Party, in addition to forces representing the Revolutionary Front, the most important of which are: the Sudan Liberation Movement-Transitional Council led by Hadi Idris, the Sudan Liberation Forces Gathering headed by Taher Hajar, the Popular Movement led by Malik Agar, the Popular Democratic Revolutionary Movement led by Yasser Arman, in addition to the Beja Congress and others.
On the other side, which refuses to enter the political process, stands the democratic bloc, which has mostly divided its components from freedom and change and includes 16 organizations and entities, including the parties to the peace agreement, most notably: Justice and Equality headed by Jibril Ibrahim, Sudan Liberation led by Minni Arko Minawi, the Sudan Liberation Movement led by Mustafa Tambour, the Third Front "Tamazuj" led by Muhammad Ali Qureshi, the Northern Entity the People's Movement led by Khamis Jalab, the People's Liberation and Justice Front, the Sudan Liberation Movement led by Muhammad Shakosh, and the "Unionist Party – Revolutionary Front".
As for the political forces in the Democratic Bloc, they are represented by the original Unionist Party, the Democratic Alliance for Justice, in addition to civil entities and demand bodies.
Political meetings with specific forces will not solve the country's crisis and cannot and cannot lead to political stability in it, this is a repetition of mistakes and a reproduction of failed past experiences, the President of the Sovereign Council and his deputy are responsible for forty million Sudanese, it is unreasonable and we cannot let certain people determine the future of the country,
— Mubarak Ardol (@MubarakArdol) March 16, 2023
What are the bases and criteria for accession to the Framework Agreement?
Civil and military forces have agreed since the overthrow of the government of President Omar al-Bashir in April 2019 that the Freedom and Change Coalition represents the forces of the revolution that struggled to overthrow the former regime, and therefore it has the right to join the framework agreement, according to the assurances of the leader of the coalition, Mohamed Abdel Hakam, telling Al Jazeera Net that it is the basic criterion that guaranteed them to sign the agreement.
This is followed – according to Abdel Hakam – by the so-called Transitional Forces, which are not part of the coalition but took a position rejecting the army's measures on October 25, 2021, and here emerges a faction of the Popular Congress Party and a faction of the original Unionist Party led by Hassan al-Mirghani.
The third is the peace forces, which are the movements that signed an agreement with the transitional government in Juba in late 2020, as well as the parties that signed peace agreements with the previous government, represented by Tijani Cissé, who participated in the Doha peace agreement to end the war in Darfur in 2011.
According to political analyst Othman Fadlallah, other forces were added at the request of some countries in the region in order to expand participation, including the federal origin led by Mohamed Othman Al-Mirghani, who was attached to satisfy Cairo as its strategic ally, according to his description of Al Jazeera Net.
On October 17, 2022, the Freedom and Change Coalition presented its vision on the foundations and principles of the political solution leading to the end of the coup, addressing the parties to the political process and their roles, as it named the forces of the revolution against the October 25 coup, namely: Freedom and Change, political forces, armed struggle movements, resistance committees, the Professionals Association, trade union bodies, and democratic civil society, and granted them the right to choose the prime minister.
The vision also identified the "Transitional Forces" as signatories to the political declaration and participated in the draft transitional constitution prepared by the Steering Committee of the Bar Association, and granted them the right to be consulted by the Prime Minister during his quest to form the executive authority, and here it excluded armed movements that supported the army's measures to accompany them in the process, on the grounds that the peace agreement signed with these movements represents a strategic issue.
We have seen in the travels a statement signed by the official spokesman of the truncated political process, stating that an important meeting was held under the chairmanship of the army commander and the signatories of the framework. This step confirms the transgression of calls for reform of the process as we warned earlier. This truncated process will not lead to stability no matter how much it claims otherwise.
— Mini Arko Minawi. | Mona Arko Minawi (@ArkoMinawi) March 16, 2023
Who are the rejected?
Says the Secretary-General of the National Unionist Party United Mohamed Hadi Mahmoud, that the counter-revolutionary parties that have been associated with the ousted regime and are still trying to turn back the clock, can not be added to the political process, in addition to the components supported the procedures of October 25 / October and are still associated with it although the putschists signed on their exit from the political scene, but still these insist on the presence of the military in power during the transitional period, adding to the island net "can not be entrusted with the democratic transition They have to wait for the elections."
Political analyst Othman Fadlallah said, "The map of the participating forces has been drawn up for a long time and includes forces classified as centrist and excluding leftist, Baathist, communist and National Congress forces."
What is the position of the excluded democratic bloc on the agreement?
Bloc spokesman Mohamed Zakaria confirmed that the list of the framework agreement was determined by the Central Council for Freedom and Change according to its own criteria, as it included 18 organizations from the coalition, while invitations were sent to only 4 organizations from the Democratic Bloc to participate in the political process "without justifications or criteria," according to his belief.
Zakaria explains to Al Jazeera Net that the Central Council monopolized the authority to determine the parties and refused to amend the list with flimsy justifications, including not to sink the political process, although a number of signatories to the framework fell with the Bashir regime in 2019.
The list in its current form, as the spokesman pointed out, gives the Central Council absolute majority and total control over the decision-making mechanism, in all issues related to determining and housing the executive structures and the duration and programs of the transitional period, adding, "In short, it is a complete monopoly of the political process with symbolic and nominal representation of others, all with the approval of the military component and the tripartite mechanism."
With the meeting of the guest house this evening, the political process entered a new and qualitative phase and is moving towards a final agreement based on democratic civilian rule to achieve the goals of the revolution and state building, and this is what the people of Sudan deserve.
— Yassir Arman (@Yassir_Arman) March 15, 2023
Do understandings succeed in light of the distancing of key forces?
According to the spokesman for the political process, Khaled Omar Youssef, the first day of next April will witness the signing of the final agreement between the military and the civilian forces that joined the framework agreement, provided that on the sixth of the same month the transitional constitution will be signed, so that on the 11th of the same month the civilian government will be formed and the reins of power will be received from the military, which were determined by the consensus of civilians, military and important international parties.
Commenting on this, the spokesman for the Democratic Bloc, Muhammad Zakaria, says that any political process based on the levers of exclusion and monopoly will not produce a successful and sustainable transition to the tyranny of the partisan agenda of the centralists and will not withstand the opposition of the Democratic Bloc, the Communist Party, the Baath Party, the radical current and a wide segment of political, civil and societal forces and resistance committees, and will end in failure.
He added that "the previous partnership during the government of former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok was founded on a broader partisan and civil base, and yet it faced challenges, and the framework sites produced a partnership with a very narrow base, which reinforces the hypothesis of failure."
However, the leader of the Freedom and Change Movement, Mohamed Abdel Hakam, expressed confidence that the political process is proceeding steadily and successfully, especially after agreeing on specific dates for ending military rule and handing over power to a civilian leadership, pointing out that the understandings on the time matrix took place in the presence of important international parties in addition to military and civilian leaders.
And agrees in that journalist and political analyst Osman Fadlallah, saying to Al Jazeera Net that the options for the leaders of the Justice and Equality Movement and the liberation of Sudan limited, and points out that the success of the equation and its failure depends on the position of the army, which confirmed its leaders during the past hours that they are closer to stand behind the ongoing political process.
He pointed out that the project was designed by the countries of the region and the West completely, and pressure is now being exerted on the political forces to commit to it and implement it, because the desired state in Sudan is a state with specific specifications that are completely pro-Western, and continues, "This is why Minawi and Jibril cannot stand in front of a locomotive with international and regional momentum."
Fadlallah believes that the rise of the political process is conditional on economic support for the next government, and if available, it will succeed regardless of the opposing currents, given that the economy is the decisive factor now.
However, the leader of the Democratic Bloc Mubarak Ardol rules out the continuation of the political transition in the absence of the Democratic Bloc, and says to Al Jazeera Net that the bloc "is not easy to bypass and is considered a weighty part of the political organizations that signed the peace agreement in Sudan and have regional and international links."
Where is the exit?
From Mohamed Zakaria's point of view, the solution lies in liberating the political process from the shackles of monopoly so that the Sudanese can be partners in decision-making and in shaping the transition scene, and agreeing on a minimum program that establishes a broad-based government with limited programs that implements and completes peace, addresses pension issues and meets the requirements for holding elections.
The Secretary-General of the National Unionist Party, Mohamed Hadi Mahmoud, speaks to Al Jazeera Net about the need to take into account the political, civil and societal components that represent the parties to the political process, especially after the revolution, which won the admiration of the world, which paves the way for the exit of the military from power and the formation of a purely civilian government that leads the transitional period to free and fair elections and the manufacture of a permanent constitution.