Gaddafi's uranium. Where is he hidden? And who stole it? Does it have environmental risks?

The disappearance of 10 barrels of uranium powder somewhere in Libyan territory, and then finding them a day after the International Atomic Energy Agency announced their disappearance, raises questions about who tried to seize the "yellow cake", as well as its risks to humans and the environment.

On March 15, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) revealed that about 2.5 tonnes of natural uranium had disappeared from a site in Libya, which it did not specify exactly.

Within 24 hours, the forces of retired General Khalifa Haftar announced the discovery of the missing uranium barrels.

Like the IAEA, Haftar's forces did not say where they found the uranium powder or where it was hidden.

Yellowcake is produced by crushing raw uranium rocks, turning into uranium powder or uranium concentrate.

To turn the yellowcake into nuclear fuel, it is enriched by centrifuges, separating uranium-235 (0.7% of the yellowcake) from uranium-238 (99.3% of the yellowcake), according to nuclear energy experts.

Through a complex process, uranium-235 (radioactive) is raised from 0.7 to 3 and even 5 percent, and this tiny percentage of "enriched uranium" represents nuclear fuel.

Libyan nuclear program

The Libyan nuclear program dates back to the seventies of the last century, when Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi tried to build nuclear reactors, where he succeeded in 1979, with the help of the Soviet Union, in building the first nuclear research center in the Tajoura area, the eastern suburb of the capital Tripoli.

A second nuclear plant was built in Gaddafi's hometown of Sirte (450 km east of Tripoli), also with the support of the Soviet Union, after US pressure on Argentina and Belgium not to transfer nuclear technology to Libya.

Media reports speak of the presence of a nuclear research center in the Tamanhint area of Sabha governorate (750 km south of Tripoli), where there is a military air base, while others see it as just a camp where uranium powder barrels smuggled from Niger were stored.

Because the Soviet Union did not allow advanced technology to be provided to Libya that would allow Gaddafi to acquire nuclear weapons later, and with the difficulty of obtaining this technology, Libya turned to the black market and received help from Pakistan's nuclear bomb father, Abdul Qadeer Khan.

According to IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei, a meeting between Abdul Qadeer Khan and a senior Libyan official in January 1984 in which the Pakistani scientist talked about the technologies needed to acquire nuclear material, key resources and capabilities, and offered Tripoli to sell it centrifuge technology to enrich uranium.

The year 1984 marks the actual start of Libya's nuclear program to produce a nuclear weapon, especially after Tripoli acquired centrifuges.

Libya has uranium reserves in the western Aouinat region, near the city of Ghat, in the far southwest, near the triangle of Algeria, Niger and Libya, known for its richness in uranium ore, which is inhabited by Tuareg tribes.

Although it does not exploit the Western Owainat mines to obtain uranium ore, media reports have talked about Libya obtaining uranium ore through the black market, from mines in northern Niger, which France uses to supply its nuclear reactors.

Although Libya has spent billions of dollars over many years to build a nuclear program for military purposes, former director of the Atomic Energy Agency Mohamed ElBaradei described it as a "failure" project, as Gaddafi was far from producing the atomic bomb.

After the US invaded Iraq in March 2003 for allegedly possessing a nuclear weapon, and in order to avoid the fate of President Saddam Hussein and his regime, Gaddafi voluntarily gave up his nuclear program in December of the same year.

Haftar's forces announce finding uranium shipments 'missing' (social media)

Where is the yellow cake hidden?

Haftar's forces' talk that the missing uranium barrels were found towards Chad confirms that they are located in southern Libya and not in the north, and means that the only possibility is that they were hidden in the Tamanhint area (45 km northeast of Sabha), and not in Tajoura, which is under the control of the Government of National Unity, nor in Sirte in the north, which is under the control of Haftar's forces and mercenaries of the Russian company Wagner.

This possibility was confirmed by Libyan nuclear engineer Abdul Hakim al-Taweel, who worked at the Tajoura Nuclear Research Center, saying that "the barrels of yellow cake in Tamanhint were there in a camp, and it is the business of external security and Muammar's guards, because even we Libyan nuclear engineers in Tajoura heard about it from afar and we do not know anything about its details."

The location of the yellowcake is not exactly as secret as it seems, as the CNN crew was able, in 2011, after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi's regime, to reach a facility 15 minutes northeast of Sabha, and photographed the stored uranium yellow cake, according to the site "Bawabat Al-Wasat".

American journalist Aris Dimitrakopoulos quoted a 2013 UN report that the uranium storage site was located in a military facility near the city of Sabha, and contained approximately 6,400 barrels.

Who stole the barrels of yellow cake?

No one claimed responsibility for stealing 10 barrels of yellowcake from the Tamanhint camp, which is under the control of Haftar's forces, which a Chadian faction is accused of stealing.

Haftar's forces reported in a statement that those who seized them (barrels of yellow cake) are ignorant of their nature, and do not know their danger, and left them after realizing that they are useless.

Haftar's forces said it was likely that one of the Chadian factions expected that this warehouse, which is guarded in this empty area, contained ammunition or weapons that they could benefit from.

Haftar's forces reached this conclusion based on the fact that the barrels found towards Chad were 5 km from the storage site.

This narrative is supported by the fact that the theft was not professional, and the uranium barrels were abandoned without being hunted, so it is unlikely that an international party was behind the operation.

The suspicions could have been directed to Russia's Wagner, which is stationed at the Tamanhint air base, near the heavily guarded uranium depot.

There was also concern about Iran, which needs the yellowcake to run its nuclear reactors, or about Israel, which is trying to prevent Iran or any Arab country from developing even a peaceful nuclear program.

Since the fall of Gaddafi, Libya has struggled to sell yellowcake abroad, encouraged by the International Atomic Energy Agency, and it does not provide adequate security for uranium barrels, making stealing small quantities of it not an impossible task.

Haftar's forces explain that they found an opening in the uranium barrel depot, from the side, that allows one barrel to exit.

The IAEA did not comment on a statement by Haftar's forces, which blamed them for not providing the needs of the guards, which include special clothes, masks and others, as promised.

Its harm is no different from the harms of sand

Haftar's forces say uranium powder causes several diseases such as paralysis and infertility. With the IAEA not providing the necessary clothing and masks to protect against these diseases, the guards are at a considerable distance from the warehouse to ensure that they are not infected or exposed to the risk of infection.

But Libyan nuclear engineer Abdul Hakim al-Tawil says the yellowcake barrels in Tamanhint are not dangerous, not radioactive, and do not threaten human health.

"These barrels contain uranium called yellowcake, uranium ore powder, and it consists of 99.3 percent uranium-238, which is natural uranium that is neither dangerous nor radioactive (this is the most important point)," he said.

"The whole story is that they are barrels with uranium dust, if you do not approach it or inhale it in a large amount, it is no different from the desert sand and its harms," he said.