The European Union fears the collapse of Tunisia. Objective evaluation or exaggeration?

TUNIS – European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell's statement about the bloc's fears of a collapse in Tunisia's political and economic situation has provoked mixed reactions, with one party seeing the situation on the brink of explosion and others saying those fears are exaggerated.

Borrell said that the situation in Tunisia is moving towards an imminent collapse, and that the collapse threatens the flow of migrants to the European Union, stressing that the Union cannot turn a blind eye to what is happening in Tunisia, ruling out at the same time helping Tunisia if it does not sign an agreement with the IMF.

But the Tunisian Foreign Ministry rejected Borrell's remarks, saying they were "disproportionate both in view of the historically established and proven resilience of the Tunisian people, as well as with regard to the threat posed by migration from southern countries to Europe."

"Selective statements continue to ignore any responsibility for the situation that prevailed in Tunisia from 2011 until July 25, 2021," the Tunisian Foreign Ministry said, when President Kais Saied announced exceptional measures to isolate the previous government and parliament.

Bruel's remarks on Monday came after the European Parliament adopted a resolution on Tunisia last Thursday, calling for the release of "arbitrarily detained" and the reinstatement of dismissed judges, calling for the suspension of cooperation with the ministries of justice and interior.

It also follows the suspension by the World Bank until further notice of future partnership and cooperation discussions with Tunisia for the period 2023-2027, following statements by President Kais Saied that were racist against irregular migrants from sub-Saharan African countries.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell says situation in Tunisia is heading towards imminent collapse (French)

The Edge of Collapse

Hicham Ajbouni, a leader of the Democratic Current Party, said that the European Union's assessment of the situation in Tunisia was not surprising, denouncing what he considered a comprehensive deterioration of the political situation and the climate of freedoms and the economic situation under President Kais Saied.

He confirms to Al Jazeera Net that "Tunisia is on the verge of collapse" due to economic recession, weak growth, high unemployment, erosion of hard currency stocks, the decline of the dinar, the decline of sovereign numbering to its lowest levels, and the absence of a horizon to sign an agreement with the IMF.

This opposition attributed the deterioration of the situation to the policy of Kais Saied, who said that he "lives in denial of the deteriorating reality, and seeks to throw Tunisia into a new adventure of grassroots construction, by establishing a regional council for the regions without paying any attention to the economic aspect."

"The economic situation has been affected by the crisis political situation as a result of President Kais Saied's seizure of power in his hands, his use of state agencies to pursue and incite his opponents, and his uniqueness in writing the constitution and formulating a political system on his size," al-Ajbouni said.

Ajbouni added that the next "will be the worst" if Tunisia does not obtain a loan from the International Monetary Fund, noting that the European Union is looking for its interests to achieve a kind of stability in Tunisia for fear of a large flow of migrant boats towards its coasts.

Exaggeration of the Union

But Mohsen Nabti, a leader of the Popular Current party that supports the president's measures, says that the statements of the European Union's foreign policy chief are "exaggerated," stressing that Tunisia is not collapsed and that its situation is no different from the situation in European countries.

Compared to what European countries – such as Italy during the Corona pandemic, or other European countries that were negatively affected by the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war – Nabti believes that the Tunisian situation is "normal", and that the statements of the EU official are incorrect.

"Why didn't this official talk about the collapse of Tunisia when the terrorists tried to invade it? Why didn't we hear his voice when there were two political assassinations? And why didn't he talk about its collapse when they plunged Tunisia into debt? Isn't it because their plan was to dismantle the state?"

Nabati acknowledges the difficult economic situation as a result of previous and long accumulations of corruption, the absence of economic reforms and the absence of social justice.

He stressed that Tunisia is able to recover from the financial crisis with the will and orientation towards rising international powers in the world, such as China and Asian countries, stressing that Tunisia's partnership with the European Union "has not benefited it in anything other than the destruction of its industrial and economic fabric."

Great difficulties

From the point of view of economist Moez Hadidane, the talk of the European Union's foreign policy official about the collapse of Tunisia "exaggerated", but he tells Al Jazeera Net that Tunisia is not immune from this collapse if the necessary reforms do not start.

He tells Al Jazeera Net that the European Union is going to carry out a kind of blackmail veiled to Tunisia by helping it obtain a loan with the IMF in exchange for responding to its conditions of accepting to be a land of refuge for sub-Saharan African migrants.

Tunisia is expected to embark on a path fraught with financial risks that will have serious repercussions that could lead to social explosion if it does not obtain loans from the World Bank, the IMF or the European Union to finance its 2023 budget.

Despite the IMF's initial approval to lend Tunisia 1.9 billion dinars in installments over four years, Hadidane said the agreement remained "frozen" because of the opposition of the president and the labor union to the IMF's conditions to remove subsidies and forfeit public institutions.

For his part, says economic expert Ezzedine Saidan for Al Jazeera Net that Tunisia is not currently living in a state of collapse because the collapse "means the bankruptcy of institutions and banks and worsen unemployment significantly," indicating that they live more precisely economic and financial difficulties are very large.

Delayed repairs

He attributed in his speech to Al Jazeera Net the reason for the exacerbation of the financial and economic crisis in Tunisia to the delay of reforms significantly since 2011 due to political instability and the succession of governments according to the logic of partisan quotas and neglect of the economic aspect in exchange for power-sharing.

He stressed that Tunisia's failure to obtain a loan from the IMF will make Tunisia face great difficulties in mobilizing its resources in hard currency, and asked: "How will it finance its expenditures for the year 2023? How will it repay its debt in hard currency for this year and the following years?"

Tunisia has been going through a political, economic and social crisis since the outbreak of the revolution 11 years ago, but today it is at a crossroads and a blockage following the exceptional measures by which President Kais Saied rules the country, especially due to the continuous rise in prices and shortages of basic consumer goods.

The government reduced government subsidy expenditures on fuel and basic materials this year to reduce the budget deficit to 7.5 billion dinars, and the government raised the price of fuel last year 5 times, and it will not be different this year, according to observers.

Tunisia's budget for 2023 is estimated at 70 billion dinars ($22.7 billion). The budget was drafted on the assumption of borrowing from abroad by about 15 billion dinars ($ 5 billion), but this is unlikely - according to observers - especially in the absence of an agreement with the IMF.