The uncertainty surrounding Swedish NATO membership persists. Hungary is expected to ratify Finland's NATO membership on Monday, Turkey is then believed to follow suit shortly. However, Sweden will have to wait for approval.

Turkey's motivations are clear: Sweden is singled out as a free state for terrorists and with major problems with Kurds who have links to the terrorist group PKK.

Hungary has so far not publicly justified its actions. Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström has been in contact with his Hungarian counterpart Peter Szijjártó after the Hungarian decision to ratify Finland only. However, Billström tells SVT that he has not received any information about the reasons for Hungary's actions.

Turkey's biggest obstacle

No matter what, Turkey is considered to be the biggest obstacle on Sweden's path to full NATO membership. President Erdogan is demanding that more than 120 people be extradited to Turkey and accuses the Swedish parliament of being infiltrated by terrorists. The rhetoric is partly a feature of the Turkish election debate, but the harsh statements by Erdoğan also mean that it is difficult to see how the Turkish position can be quickly changed.

In early April, Sweden's foreign minister expects to meet his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu in connection with a major NATO meeting. However, formal negotiations with Turkey are not expected to resume until after the May 14 elections.

Whether these can lead to Turkish ratification before the NATO summit in Vilnius in early July, however, is unclear.

Billstrom convinced

Tobias Billström has admittedly confidently said he is "completely convinced" that Sweden is a full member at the summit in Vilnius. He'll probably have to eat that if that's not the case. Here, the Foreign Minister was also pressed in Wednesday's debate where, among others, Peter Hultqvist (S) called for information about what information Billström based his statement on.

The Riksdag debate on saying yes to Swedish NATO membership was extensive, and lasted for over six hours. The decision to be taken was described as historic by several members. Becoming a member of the NATO defense alliance means that Sweden puts an end to over 200 years of nonalignment.

Despite the lively debate, the decision was still expected. Both the current and the previous governments are, of course, in favour of NATO membership. It was also decided by a large majority that the Riksdag's decision was made. All parties except the Left Party and the Green Party voted yes to Sweden's NATO accession.

Reduced foreign policy independence

Both the V and the MP are opposed to NATO membership. The two parties are deeply critical of Sweden entering an alliance that ultimately bases its deterrence on nuclear weapons. It also worsens Sweden's security policy situation, they say.

The parties believe that it is best for Swedish security to remain outside NATO. NATO membership means reduced scope for an independent foreign policy and risks that Sweden can be drawn into other conflicts, they believe.

But it is only V and MP who are behind these objections. The remaining riksdag parties believe that NATO membership is best for Swedish security in the situation that has arisen after Russia's attack on Ukraine. There are also no nuclear weapons on Swedish soil, according to the majority in the Riksdag, and this is also found in the decision made by the Riksdag.