An article in the US magazine "Foreign Policy" warned that a Chinese decision to supply Russia with weapons will change the world, since only Beijing has the stockpiles and industrial capacity to compensate for Moscow's devastating losses of equipment in its war on Ukraine.
Worse, it would help foster a Russian-Chinese alliance that stands against Western interests, says author Richard Aboulafia, managing director at AeroDynamicx, a consultancy that manages the aerospace and defense industry.
U.S. President Joe Biden and other Western leaders have warned the Chinese leadership that providing lethal technologies to Russia, as well as other aid already provided, will have serious consequences.
One option is to cripple China's commercial aircraft industry, thereby striking a blow against Beijing's economic, technical and transportation aspirations. It would be a major blow to Chinese President Xi Jinping's stature as well, he said, as he has made technical self-sufficiency a key priority for the country.
Judgment Day
Aboulafia pointed out that the aviation sector is not just a matter of pride for China, but is the basis of its infrastructure and an essential means of transportation for a huge number of Chinese middle class.
According to the World Bank, air passenger traffic in China grew more than 10-fold between 2000 and 2019, from 62 million to 660 million.
This exponential growth in passenger numbers has made China a major customer of Western-made aircraft, with figures reported by manufacturers indicating that China accounted for 2 percent of global aircraft production. 2018, the peak year for imports, accounted for 23% of global aircraft production.
The aerospace industry expert said a Western decision to starve China Commercial Aircraft Enterprise (COMAC) of components for its large aircraft would be too embarrassing for Beijing.
Killing its programs to develop the industry could lead to more than several billion fixed costs, and it would also mean that China would have no choice but to continue importing Western aircraft from Airbus and Boeing, he said.
The expert concluded that Chinese officials will face a difficult situation after the self-sufficiency policies under the slogan "Made in China" for 2025, adopted by Chinese President Xi Jinping, are exposed, and their results have been very limited.
China will have a simple choice: rethink arms sales to Russia or recognize that the plans of a national aviation industry stand on its own and are untenable, at least in the next 12 to 15 years, he said.