Analysis

Xi Jinping in Moscow: convergences on what the world order should be, divergences on how to achieve it

On Monday, March 20, the Chinese president arrived in Moscow for a three-day state visit. The arrival of his plane was broadcast live, a media treatment reserved for important guests. AP - v.v.s.

Text by: Stéphane Lagarde Follow

7 min

President Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow on Monday, March 20, for a three-day state visit to Russia. A visit in a particular international context with the conflict in Ukraine, the arrest warrant issued by the ICC against Vladimir Putin and Sino-American tensions. According to Zhao Long, deputy director of the Shanghai Institute of International Relations, while China and Russia share the idea that the international order can be unjust and needs to be reformed, there are differences in how to solve problems.

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Interview by our correspondent in Beijing and Louise May

RFI: Criticism has recently emerged in Chinese academic circles relativizing the "rock-solid friendship" between China and Russia. How to explain this slingshot?

Zhao Long: What you call criticism are not necessarily criticism, but there may be differences of perception about the relationship between Moscow and Beijing today. Some have indeed argued that cooperation between the two countries is limitless, while others question not the relations between China and Russia but the fact that there is no limit to this cooperation. We often hear, for example, about the "rock-solid friendship" between Russia and China, but rarely examples of this friendship are given.

The so-called rock-solid friendship manifests itself, in the first place, at the political level. The two countries have many points of agreement on understanding the current international system and changes in the international order. Both China and Russia say they want to promote a multipolar world and increase the representation of developing countries. Added to this is the neighbourly relationship and a common geopolitical and economic environment. The two countries are complementary in their development.

► Read also: Xi Jinping's state visit to Moscow, a "trip of friendship, cooperation and peace"

Russia's economy is driven by the export of its natural resources. And China has a huge market with significant demand, especially in terms of resources. There is also strong complementarity in the field of technology and science, which means that bilateral trade between Russia and China has exploded in the past two years. It exceeded $190 billion last year, and there is talk of crossing the $200 billion mark this year. Finally, there is the common history. Relations between China and Russia experienced a groping stage at the time of the USSR (Editor's note: the Sino-Vietnamese war in 1979), but also after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, when there were some unpleasant moments between the two countries.

RFI: How does the Chinese intelligentsia perceive this "eternal friendship" between Russia and China?

First, the phrase "eternal friendship" is inaccurate, because eternity is difficult to predict. On the other hand, the strategic orientation to develop these friendly relations in the long term exists. But again, there are a lot of interpretations and misunderstandings in the media.

Russia, like China, intends to avoid obstacles in the path of their relations that they wish to allow to develop naturally. But China also hopes for this kind of cooperation with other countries. And then, this friendship also depends on the abilities and requirements of each, and this is not unlimited. It is hard to imagine that the two capitals will always agree 100%. The strategic partnership between Russia and China, and mutual trust, allow for better coordination on various issues.

What the Chinese intelligentsia does not understand is this idea of eternity that exists only in theory. The China-Russia relationship should be well maintained, and for that it should be based on the interests of both sides and their common interests in the international community. The key principles are non-alignment, non-confrontation and non-targeting of third parties. The needs of both parties are very clear in this regard. It is about enabling the partnership to resist external influences.

RFI: Is it possible for China to further help Russia in the war in Ukraine? Could this go beyond "normal" trade relations, for example by supplying military equipment?

If you look at official Chinese statements, it is always stressed that China stands on the side of peace and dialogue, which is incompatible with military assistance. China should therefore remain very cautious about exporting commercial dual-use military equipment, which could be perceived as military assistance to Russia. That's a red line for Beijing I think.

RFI: Russia continues its attacks on Ukraine after more than a year of conflict. How then can Beijing and Moscow call for a new world order, jointly?

China and Russia believe that the current international order is unjust, unreasonable and imperfect. But it is true that we also have differences in how to solve the problem. China has insisted, through both the Chinese President and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, that the international order must be maintained, but also reformed and improved at the same time. The most important thing for Beijing is to increase its fairness, that is, to ensure that the order is not dominated by a few countries, and then the voice of developing countries should be more visible. Russia believes that it is not among the main beneficiaries of globalization or the current international order. It even has a sense of downgrading and believes that Russia's interests are not well served by the international order today.

Some in Russia speak of destructive reconstruction, that is, decomposition before a new beginning, and the establishment of a new order. So there is the same goal of achieving a multipolar, more equitable order, but the approaches can be completely different on some major issues. I think it's mainly related to the strategy of both countries.

RFI: Professor Feng Yujun, in collaboration with Dr. Wen Longjie, have just published a study that made quite a splash about Putin's messianic ideology of nationalism. The report states, inter alia, that the notion of "cultural boundaries" contradicts that of respect for the sovereignty of countries.

It is true that Russian society, including its elites, has a different view of current conflicts in the world, starting with the Ukrainian issue. Some Chinese intellectuals believe that there is a strong cultural and historical imperial imprint in Russian ideology. This means, among other things, that Russia does not view regional conflicts in the modern sense of sovereign independence. There are also notions of national pride and unified civilizational space. That is why China and other countries say that the Ukrainian issue is very complicated, because it is home to many complex historical and ethnic identity issues. And what Mr. Feng also says in his report is that this is a factor that should not be overlooked. Many countries today, mainly the United States and Europe, see the Ukrainian issue only from the point of view of the modern sovereign state and they may not understand what lies behind Russia's decisions. This makes mutual understanding between the West and Russia difficult.

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• China
• Russia
• Xi Jinping
• Vladimir Poutine