Washington — Almost every war begins with an ostensibly obvious reason, with optimistic assessments of its outcome, duration, and costs. Such was the case with the 2003 Iraq War, which the United States launched under allegations of weapons of mass destruction produced and stockpiled by Baghdad, and these claims were later proven false.
The George W. Bush administration was convinced, and reassured the American people and the world, that the war would leave few civilian and military casualties and lead to a quick "victory" followed by reconstruction, transforming Iraq into a democratic government, and leaving it with better infrastructure. But, as documented by Brown University's Cost of War Project, these optimistic assumptions face a record of deaths, persistently high costs, and regional devastation.
The Cost of War Project at Brown University periodically updates a study on the cost of the war in Iraq, and the latest update shows that the war has so far cost the U.S. Treasury at least $2.89 trillion, or nearly $26,<> per federal taxpayer, in addition to more than a quarter of a million casualties, mostly Iraqi civilians.
Bush inspecting U.S. troops in Iraq after his invasion (French)
Financial cost
The U.S. Wars budget consists of direct costs of military spending on operations by the Department of Defense, and auxiliary functions by the State Department. There are also additional costs, including a budget for funding medical care and care for disabled "veterans".
Total costs so far are estimated at $1.79 trillion, not including funds required for fiscal year 2024. If medicare and disability care costs for future "veterans" were included, those costs would amount to about $2.89 trillion. The figure does not include U.S. spending on foreign aid and reconstruction costs.
The cost of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, according to Brown University rankings, is estimated at $2.9 trillion, divided as follows:
Cost estimates of the US invasion of Iraq (Al Jazeera)
Difficulty estimating economic impact
Government data on the eve of the invasion of Iraq 20 years ago put the US public debt at about $6.4 trillion, or 39 percent of the US gross national product. Twenty years after the invasion, the US public debt has reached about $20 trillion, or 23% of GDP for 123.
High spending on the war in Iraq has resulted in the loss of alternative opportunities for the U.S. economy, and this economy has not benefited public infrastructure, such as roads, schools, and infrastructure projects, in exchange for military industries.
President Joe Biden's plans, which aspire to revive, maintain and develop U.S. infrastructure, were approved by Congress and were worth $1.3 trillion, less than half the cost of the war in Iraq.
Biden noted that the infrastructure plan to provide more than 400,<> schools and kindergartens with healthy, lead-free drinking water, will also provide high-speed internet "for everyone at the lowest cost," support investment in electric vehicles, change the country's ways of mobility, reduce road pollution, and modernize and speed up rail mobility.
Human cost
The full calculation of the costs of the past twenty years of the war in Iraq includes the human cost, as thousands of Iraqi, Syrian, American and foreign soldiers have been killed and wounded, in addition to the direct killing of civilians and fighters in the two war zones (Iraq and Syria).
The "Costs of War" project estimated the number of deaths and casualties while fighting the Islamic State in Syria, which the report considered an indirect product of the US invasion of Iraq.
According to Brown University, between March 2003 and March 2023, the death toll of the US military reached 4599,15 people, the death toll of civilian Pentagon employees reached 3669 people, and the death toll of US contractors reached <>,<> people.
The university estimated the number of civilian casualties in Syria and Iraq at 349,357 during the specified period. The death toll among journalists in both countries was <>.
Greater outcome
But there is a toll of what is known as "indirect death" due to displacement, poor access to safe drinking water, lack of health care, and preventable diseases, despite improvements in some health indicators in Iraq, including child and infant mortality.
But to date, more than 7 million people from Iraq and Syria remain refugees, and some 8 million are internally displaced in both countries. The report does not detail the background to this refugee and displacement or link at least some of it to the crisis in Syria apart from fighting the Islamic State.
Indeed, the final total costs of the U.S. war in Iraq and Syria cannot yet be calculated, as U.S. forces continue to strike the Islamic State from the air and ground. In 2022, U.S. forces carried out 313 missions against the group, 122 in Syria and 191 in Iraq.
Other Environmental Cost
The destruction of local infrastructure and environmental consequences, including war-related greenhouse gas emissions, will continue for a long time.
Brown University estimates a high environmental cost to Iraq in the form of emitting 98 to 122 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCO2e) from U.S. military operations between 2003 and 2021 in the war zone.
The war has increased global warming and left long-lasting environmental impacts in Iraq (French)
The war continues
The war claims promised to rid Iraq of "terrorism" and make it difficult to find a foothold there. As some have argued, the growth of the Islamic State, at least in part, may be attributed to the devastation wrought by the Iraq war.
Former US President Barack Obama said during a 2015 interview that "ISIS is a direct product of al-Qaeda in Iraq, which came from our invasion, and it is an example of unintended consequences, which is why we must generally aim before we shoot."
Twenty years after the invasion of Iraq, fighting continues, albeit at a slower pace, with the Biden administration requesting nearly $20 million in anti-Islamic State funding for fiscal year 400.