Sixth IPCC report: 3.5 billion people threatened, efforts still insufficient

According to the sixth IPCC report, published on March 20, 2023, humanity has never emitted as much CO2 as in 2022 © ecotree.green

Text by: Simon Rozé Follow

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its sixth report on Monday 20 March. A summary of the 10,000 pages of interim work published over the past eight years on the state of science, global warming and its consequences, ways to mitigate and adapt to it. And there's still a lot of work to be done.

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This report underlines the urgency of more ambitious actions and shows that, if we act now, it is still possible to ensure a livable and sustainable future for all. " says Hoasung Lee, who led this work. "A sustainable and livable future for all" is indeed what is at stake for humanity.

The colossal work carried out by IPCC scientists clarifies and refines our knowledge of global warming. It is "unequivocally" the consequence of humanity's emissions of greenhouse gases, with carbon dioxide (CO2) at the forefront.

More than a century of fossil fuel use (oil, gas and coal) has already led us to a planet 1.1°C warmer than pre-industrial temperatures. This consequently leads to more frequent and violent extreme weather events. These disasters affect the entire planet, and "nearly half of humanity lives in regions that are already highly vulnerable to global warming."

Without rapid and intense reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the situation will only get worse. "What is very important in this report, compared to previous ones, is the understanding of the risks if we exceed a warming of 1.5°C," says Matthias Garschagen, one of the 93 authors of this report. "This is a likely hypothesis that current policies lead us to. We will then lose ecosystems, glaciers, coral reefs, and more. Some of these losses will be irreversible. Exceeding the limit can sometimes be tempting but it should not be given the risks, "continues the expert.

Humanity has never produced as much CO2 as in 2022

Indeed, the current commitments made by States lead, according to the IPCC, to a warming of 2.8 ° C in 2100. But these commitments are not necessarily followed by actions to implement them. Thus, without strengthening current policies, the IPCC estimates that warming will probably reach 3.2°C by the same date. It is therefore urgent to change gears: humanity has never emitted as much CO2 as last year, and at this rate, the 1.5°C barrier will be crossed in "the near future".

Faced with this, there are two tools to be used together: mitigating global warming by ceasing to emit greenhouse gases, and adapting to the changes, sometimes inevitable, that are already emerging. "We often hear that there is not enough time to mitigate. It is true, we urgently need to reduce our emissions. But there is also not enough time to adapt," says Matthias Garschagen: "Think about what to do for coastal cities or for agricultural seeds. It takes time, you have to get organized. We must accelerate.

Indeed, this time constraint is more and more significant. This report thus highlights, more than the previous ones, the extreme sensitivity of systems to climate change. Clearly: for the same warming, the risks are actually higher than previously thought.

"We have solutions"

Fortunately, "the most important message is that we have solutions," insists Friederike Otto of Oxford University: "We know how to adapt. We know how to incentivize emissions reductions. It's not like we don't have the technology or the knowledge. We actually lack a sense of urgency. We are trying to point that out in this report. We have the solution and we need to implement it quickly to make the world a better place for everyone.

This report and its messages are accompanied by a "Summary for Decision Makers". A condensation of thousands of pages into 36 for heads of state and government. Like the IPCC's previous work, this body of knowledge, the state of science on the subject in 2023, will serve as a working basis and knowledge base for future climate negotiations, starting with the next COP28, to be held in Dubai at the end of the year.

This meeting will be crucial, as it will serve to take stock of the commitments made by countries following the 2015 Paris Agreement, and possibly to strengthen them. This sixth IPCC synthesis report clearly shows that it cannot be ignored.

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• Environment
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