Alexandre Chauveau 09:54, March 20, 2023

This Monday afternoon will be voted the two motions of censure against the executive. If the one most likely to pass is the cross-party motion tabled by the Liot group, will there be enough votes to bring down the government? What is certain is that all eyes will be on the LR deputies, who now have the cards in hand.

A long day begins this Monday for the government: its fate is linked to the two motions of censure examined at 16 p.m. in the National Assembly. Two texts, one of the National Rally, the other transpartisan, at the initiative of the Liot group, co-signed by the Nupes, the only one that could attract elected LR and therefore give cold sweats to the executive. The threshold to be reached is 287 votes, the absolute majority. And in this case, the pension reform would be rejected. The right has the cards in hand.

Aurélien Pradié will vote the motion of censure

Even if those who vote for one of the two motions are in the minority in the group, they would still be between 10 and 15 who want to try to bring down the government. Among them, Aurélien Pradié, who announced this Monday morning on Europe 1 that he will vote for the transpartisan motion of censure tabled by Charles de Courson.

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Olivier Marleix, however, calls on his deputies to responsibility and team spirit this Monday morning in Le Figaro. But the dissidents LR assume, like Pierre Cordier, deputy of the Ardennes. "As a party leader, he must of course lay down a clear rule, which I can understand. The fact remains that MPs are accountable to their constituents and not to a political party. I am a representative of the people, I have to vote. And then it will be an opportunity to vote on this text."

30 LR votes needed to pass the motion of censure?

And among the voters, we logically find many opponents of the reform such as Fabien Di Filippo, Maxime Minot or Ian Boucard. But not all opponents of the text will vote for the motion, like Pierre-Henri Dumont, deputy of Pas-de-Calais. "Freedom of vote, of choice is consubstantial with each deputy. A motion of censure that would be signed by members of the RN or members of La France insoumise, it will be without me."

And according to various calculations, it would take 30 Republican votes for the motion to get a majority. A figure which, unless surprised, will not be reached this afternoon in the Chamber.