Jacques Serais 09:46, March 20, 2023

The National Assembly is preparing to vote on the two motions of censure tabled by the opposition. If they are voted by a majority of MPs, they can bring down the government. Will Emmanuel Macron have to separate from his Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne?

After the article 49-3 of this Thursday, place this Monday to the examination of the motions of censure in the National Assembly. One is issued by the National Rally and the other by the centrist group LIOT. The latter is the only one likely to bring down the government. Nevertheless, this scenario remains very unlikely because it would require between 25 and 30 LR deputies to support it. In this context, Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne is more than ever on an ejection seat.

"I assume to be a fuse"

Everything suggests that the Prime Minister may be leaving imminently in the coming days. Ten months after her appointment to Matignon, Elisabeth Borne is more damaged than ever. She admits it herself: "I assume to be a fuse" she declared last Thursday to Emmanuel Macron during the council of ministers acknowledgment the use of 49-3.

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The Head of State would therefore have every good reason to part with it. However, at this stage, this option is not preferred. "That would satisfy the demands of the opponents. I don't see the President giving them this gift," said a heavyweight of the majority.

An insoluble equation

Emmanuel Macron is still determined to enforce this reform. He wants "that the text on pensions can go to the end of its democratic journey," he recalled at the Elysee on Sunday evening.

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And if criticism fuse, even within the government, against Elisabeth Borne, Emmanuel Macron does not necessarily have other solutions. Who will replace her? For what benefit? Barely a year into his second term, the President is already faced with an intractable equation.