Despite the rejection on Monday, March 20 of the two motions of censure tabled in the National Assembly after the government's appeal to 49.3, opposition to the bill to reform pensions does not disarm. They still hope to make the government back down before its law is enacted.

Like the left-wing coalition Nupes, they want to continue to use "all the means at their disposal" to defeat this contested pension reform, from support for the social movement to a referendum of shared initiative via the Constitutional Council.

• The street does not disarm

The rest of the pension reform can be played out in the streets. As soon as the government decided to use 49.3 to pass its bill, many spontaneous demonstrations took place in several cities in France, including on the Place de la Concorde in Paris to denounce "a denial of democracy" and a passage "in force" of the project. After weeks of peaceful mobilization, the latter have often been punctuated by violence – a sign of a hardening of the movement.

In addition to popular discontent, on the side of the unions and the opposition, calls to continue the mobilization also continue. While the inter-union has already launched a new call for mobilization on Thursday, March 23, the leader of the rebellious France Jean-Luc Mélenchon has, for his part, called to "move to popular censorship", "in any place and in any circumstance".

"I hope that this popular censorship will be expressed massively, in any place in all circumstances, and that it will allow us to obtain the withdrawal of the text," he said at a press briefing near the National Assembly.

Could a strong mobilization be enough? The opposition regularly uses the example of the 2006 first employment contract (CPE). This law, which provided for a special permanent contract for young people with a trial period of two years, was also adopted with the use of 49.3 by Dominique de Villepin. This led to several weeks of blockades in high schools and universities and demonstrations involving up to three million demonstrators. The law was eventually suspended and then repealed by a new vote.

• The Constitutional Council, another recourse

In addition to 49.3, MPs have other tools to lift the bill. Among them: recourse to the Constitutional Council. "There will be several against this text if it is voted," said Charles de Courson, centrist deputy of the Liot group.

The deputies opposed to the reform intend to rely on the opinion of the Council of State, which had alerted the government of a risk of unconstitutionality of certain measures of its project and in particular its lack of clear figures, the one initially presented by the government having been undermined as the debates progressed.

It is... shedding light on the legal weaknesses of the reform

— Jérôme Guedj (@JeromeGuedj) March 17, 2023

The leader of the Insoumise in the National Assembly, Mathilde Panot, promised that the left would seize the Constitutional Council, as well as the National Rally group.

The referral to the Constitutional Council also makes it possible to suspend the deadline for promulgating the law and must be examined within one month. Thanks to Article 61.3 of the Constitution, however, the government can ask the Constitutional Council to examine the text urgently, which reduces the time limit to eight days.

• Towards a referendum of shared initiative?

A request for a referendum of shared initiative (RIP) was also submitted Monday to the Constitutional Council. A constitutional weapon at the disposal of MPs, the RIP provides for the possibility of organising a popular consultation on a bill "on the initiative of one fifth of the members of Parliament", i.e. at least 185 of the 925 MPs (577 MPs, 348 senators). It must also be "supported by a tenth of the electorate", i.e. 4.87 million people, whose signatures must be collected within nine months.

Some 250 parliamentarians, deputies and senators mainly from the left, deposited it on the desk of the President of the National Assembly on Friday, March 17. And while the reform had just been adopted in Parliament, this request was transmitted to the Constitutional Council which must now verify its admissibility.

For Valérie Rabault, Socialist vice-president of the National Assembly, the procedure would make it possible to "block for nine months the implementation of this reform". But "if a RIP is triggered on pensions, it must be triggered before the promulgation of the law".

• "Only one solution, dissolution"?

The slogan flourishes in the processions. The dissolution is agitated by Emmanuel Macron as a recurring threat since the legislative elections of June 2022 left him only a relative majority to govern. It was still on the eve of 49.3 to hope to bring into line the Republicans reluctant to vote for the reform.

If this scenario recedes after the rejection of the two motions of censure, in the ranks of the supporters of the executive, the new legislative appears as a solution. An official of the majority group said recently, on condition of anonymity, that the sequence of retreats and the 49-3 is "a crash. There needs to be a dissolution." And start off on the right foot by winning the elections that would boost Macronia's political capital.

Still, the maneuver is hazardous. In 1997, Jacques Chirac tried the operation that cost him his majority. A possible dissolution of 2023 could lead to the same consequences...

Without a crystal ball, it is difficult to predict who could emerge as the winner of these hypothetical legislative elections: the Nupes, provided they agree on the investitures, could make a leap by capitalizing on the successful social movement. But observers warn that the most likely winner is likely to be the RN, thriving on growing discontent in French society. The National Assembly would then risk being more fragmented than ever, making the existence of a majority unlikely.

At the very least, the sequence of retirements could cost Elisabeth Borne her job. President Emmanuel Macron could change prime minister to try to give a new impetus to his new five-year term. Pending her decision, Elisabeth Borne said Monday night she was "determined to continue to carry the necessary transformations" to the country, after the adoption by Parliament of its highly contested pension reform.

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