Climate: what can Africa expect from the new IPCC report?

Civilians cross a river after the second passage of Cyclone Freddy in Malawi, March 13, 2023, illustrating climate change. © AP/Thoko Chikondi

Text by: Christina Okello Follow

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will publish its latest report on Monday 20 March in the afternoon. This long-awaited summary of the state of the planet will add to the findings of previous reports. Since 2018, the same observation has been made: global warming has undeniably impacted Africa more than any other region in the world, although the continent has contributed very little to global greenhouse gas emissions.

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Previous IPCC reports had emphasized the urgency of acting against global warming. For this new component, Africans expect concrete policies, particularly in terms of financing adaptation measures to the consequences of this upheaval.

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The adaptation strategy has been on the back burner for all these years, even though it is Africa's priority. " complains, to RFI, Augustine Njamnshi, president of the Pan-African Alliance for Climate Justice.

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We were promised that we would double the funding " he says, referring to Article 6 of the Paris Agreement where the need to take into account the needs of developing countries is recognized, "but what amounts are we talking about? How much will be put on the table? On which aspects or areas will the cursor be placed? Let us be clear. ", insists the Cameroonian.

In February 2022, the experts' report concluded that adaptation is an essential axis to limit the damage of global warming on agriculture, water resources and coastal areas, but it remains neglected.

Forcing the solidarity of rich countries

Donors such as the World Bank and the Global Environment Facility prefer to finance projects that reduce sources of greenhouse gases rather than projects that mitigate their impacts.

Yet, there have been warnings. Drought, floods, cyclones... Africa is suffering the consequences of other people's emissions. Today, observers expect more incisive words from the IPCC to force the solidarity of rich countries.

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The biggest polluters must take urgent action and real action to help us meet the goals of the Paris Agreement ", insists for his part Nicaise Moulombi, Executive President of the Network of Civil Society Organizations for the Green Economy in Central Africa before adding that "the IPCC must clearly affirm it and not go through circuitous paths. What we want is money on the table for adapting to climate change," he told RFI.

► Read also IPCC report: to limit global warming, "it's now or never"

This Gabonese climate specialist has followed all IPCC reports since 2018. While he welcomes a greater contribution of the continent's experts to climate studies, he calls for better consideration of African realities, for example through data collection. "The lack of data prevents us from calculating the real value of conservation efforts," he explains, "and therefore from designing adaptation policies. But here again, funding is lacking.

This photograph taken and distributed by UNICEF on March 12, 2023 shows the impact of Cyclone Freddy in the city of Quelimane. Tropical Cyclone Freddy made landfall in Mozambique on the night of March 11, 2023 to March 12, 2023 for the second time in two weeks. AFP - ALFREDO ZUNIGA

No change without political will

The IPCC continues to recommend structural changes in our societies to limit warming to 1.5%. This requires political will. "Unless there is a radical change on this front, the scientific information contained in this latest report is not going to change anything in the face of the climate crisis," Njamnshi said.

Will the IPCC one day influence political decisions? "We have observed in the past that political and economic considerations have often prevailed over scientific recommendations," he said.

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We no longer want to be told: we still have to do studies over thirty years. The reality is there," says Nicaise Moulombi before continuing: "When there are floods, there are deaths, when there are landslides, there are deaths", words that take on a particular meaning in light of the recent floods in Malawi and Mozambique, caused by Cyclone Freddy.

Meanwhile, the temperature rises inexorably and worryingly. The year 2021 was the third or fourth warmest year on record in Africa, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

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