First of all. Many things suggest that an indictment is imminent. Prosecutors have indicated that, as have several agencies begun working to strengthen security in and around the New York court ahead of an indictment expected next week. But exactly what day an indictment might come, and if so, what day Donald Trump is formally arrested, we don't know — nor does Donald Trump, according to a statement from his representatives.
The investigation concerns Trump's involvement in payouts to former film actress Stephanie Clifford, better known as Stormy Daniels
But to understand why I claim Trump welcomes an indictment, you have to understand the other investigations that are also underway against the ex-president, allegations he himself described as witch hunts and declared himself innocent of.
In Georgia, he is being investigated for asking officials to "find 11,780 votes," which was required for Trump to win the state after the 2020 election. In Washington, the Justice Department is still investigating the storming of the Capitol, and prosecutors have summoned the White House general counsel for questioning, among other things. In addition, it is also investigating Donald Trump's handling of classified documents found in Mar-a-Lago.
'Scandalous abuse of power'
All of these investigations are far more dangerous to the president than the investigation that could lead to impeachment next week. Party colleagues of Trump have been wary of statements about the federal investigations and about the investigation in Georgia.
But all the tours around the investigation in New York have generated significantly more criticism. Several different prosecutors have been working on the case. And the investigation has gone from initially being about whether the suspicious payments to Stormy Daniels constituted violations of election laws, to the fact that it now seems to be more about how Trump recorded the payout (which went through lawyer Michael Cohen), as "legal costs."
"Outrageous abuse of power by a radical district attorney," House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy (Rep), wrote today. Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene went further, threatening party colleagues: "Republicans who stand by and cheer on when he is persecuted" will be "remembered, despised and punished by the voter base."
To be freed a dream scenario
Here, Trump sees an opportunity for martyrdom. "Protest, take back our nation!" he wrote in a post on Truth social today. If there is an indictment, not only will his most important supporters rally behind him and protest. Many more moderate Republican voters and politicians will be forced into the ex-president's corner, and suddenly, then, Trump has succeeded in laying the groundwork to bring more people on board with attacks on the remaining investigations.
The dream scenario for Donald Trump is therefore to be indicted in New York – but then acquitted in court. Few things would give Trump as much of a push back toward a return to the White House.