Washington - The incident in Moscow shooting down a US drone surprised US military officials who were watching it via a live video broadcast from the plane to an operations center at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, an incident that is expected to have several repercussions in the coming period.

Senior U.S. officials have been concerned for months that this type of incident or miscommunication in the Black Sea could lead to an even bigger problem, and Russian fighter jets frequently intercept U.S. and other allied aircraft over the Black Sea, as well as other areas where Western and Russian aircraft fly in adjacent airspace, from the Baltic Sea to off the coast of Alaska.

For its part, the Russian Defense Ministry issued a statement claiming that the drone was flying with "closed transceivers, violating the boundaries of the area of the temporary system for the use of airspace created for the purpose of conducting a special military operation," adding that the plane crashed due to a "sharp maneuver."

The downing of the U.S. drone by Russian planes is the first such incident since the end of the Cold War. U.S. officials said the United States has disrupted the drone program and is considering options for collecting its wreckage, but the Russians can get to the rest of the drone faster, as there are no U.S. military ships in the Black Sea, while the Russians have many in the region.

Goal of the marches

While the Pentagon declined to disclose the mission that the drone was carrying out while flying over the Black Sea, David Des Roches, a former Pentagon official and lecturer at the National Defense College in Washington, told Al Jazeera Net, "This is a very dangerous development, and it seems that the clash of Russian aircraft with a US drone over international waters is an attempt to prevent the United States from collecting information that may be useful to Ukraine militarily."

Matthew Wallen, CEO of the American Security Project, a think tank focused on military affairs, said: "The behavior of the Russian pilots in this incident is unprofessional, dangerous and troubling, but not unusual. "It's just another incident in a long line of reckless behavior by Russian pilots that even precedes the current war in Ukraine."

The Pentagon refused to disclose the tasks that the American march was carrying out (Reuters)

Attempts to understand the causes

In turn, the former Pentagon official and lecturer at the National Defense College in Washington Des Roches in his interview with Al Jazeera Net that there are 5 points to be taken into account when trying to understand what happened, as follows:

  • I don't think Russia would be so aggressive against a conventional American manned aircraft, they are trying to set a new standard for dealing with drones.
  • Russian actions (dropping fuel and then contacting the drone) is a risky procedure.
  • There is a strong possibility that Russian actions will damage Russian aircraft in other cases, and if the Russians try to shoot down U.S. drones again, they could lose a manned aircraft, which is important, and a major escalation.
  • The U.S. response is likely to be to increase drone sorties over international airspace, just to show we can.
  • The most important point is that what happened is not the work of a rational state that seeks to calm a difficult international situation.

Matthew Whalen considered that "if this drone were manned, it would significantly increase the risks involved, and the deliberate act of aggression by Russian pilots appears to have been taken knowing that the consequences of damaging a drone are seen as less provocative."

"Russian pilots not only damaged the MQ-9's propellant using their aircraft, they also tried to unload fuel onto the plane, it is not known whether they thought the fuel would damage the avionics, mechanics or control surfaces, or if they were trying to ignite it," Wallin said.

"It does not appear that the Russian pilots did not try to shoot down the drone, but rather they were trying to clamp it down and may have collided because of their incompetence," he said.

"Drawing on dozens of statistical tests, we found by far the most consistent support for ... Russian forces are acting in a manner aimed at compelling a change in patterns of specific U.S. and allied behavior."

Russia may want to drive the US military out of the Black Sea. https://t.co/lOv74PLteP

— William Courtney (@courtneywmh) March 14, 2023

What's more?

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, US defense expert Michael Beck said, "It has become very worrying, it is unlikely that the United States will retaliate directly from Russia, but allowing Russia to control international airspace over the Black Sea is unacceptable, and it will be interesting to see how Washington responds, will these drones be accompanied by American or NATO fighters to protect them from similar attacks?".

Former U.S. ambassador to Georgia and Kazakhstan and now a research expert at the RAND Corporation William Curtin warned of the goals of the Russian move, saying that "based on dozens of statistical tests, we have found by far the most accurate hypothesis that Russian forces are acting in a way that aims to bring about a change in the patterns of behavior of the United States and its allies with the aim of expelling the U.S. military from the Black Sea."