The NATO negotiations between Sweden, Turkey and Finland resumed at the end of February after a short break, but so far the countries have not reached a solution.
Turkey has hinted at only approving Finland's application.
And according to Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (M), the probability that that scenario can become reality has increased and that Finland will join NATO without Sweden, he announced during a press conference today.
- It is not positive for anyone, not Sweden, Finland or NATO, says Kjell Engelbrekt, professor of political science at the Norwegian Defense Academy.
Sweden and Finland today have a coordinated defense policy and if Finland continues without Sweden, the cooperation must be separated.
- We already have a package solution and if Finland goes on its own, there can be no coordination, because it must be formally done under NATO.
NATO also benefits from showing unity, now NATO shows the opposite, says Kjell Engelbrekt.
If Finland goes ahead on its own – how does that affect the security situation in Sweden?
- If it takes time before Sweden joins and we simultaneously declare that we will join NATO, then we are no longer covered by article five (the countries are no longer obliged to help each other).
We become more vulnerable to influence operations and military attacks.
One can coldly count on higher defense spending if it drags on.
Ulf Kristersson (M) believes that Sweden is safer now than before the application for NATO membership. Is it true?
- In the short term, that is true, as the United States and Great Britain have promised support.
If it drags on, maybe there are new governments in power and then you don't know what that means.
But I don't know any politician who believes that there are any advantages if Finland goes ahead on its own.