Expectations of political and sectarian tensions... Why did Hezbollah announce Franjieh's support for the presidency of Lebanon?

Beirut -

After about 5 months of the presidential post being vacant, the electoral process in Lebanon entered a new phase of political polarization, with the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, announcing support for the candidacy of his ally, the head of the Marada Movement, Suleiman Franjieh, for the presidency, which was preceded by days of announcement by the head of the Amal movement. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.

Yesterday, Monday, Nasrallah announced support for Franjieh's candidacy for the post of President of the Republic, saying, "With regard to Hezbollah, we do not have anyone named Hezbollah's candidate ... and what we have is a candidate supported by Hezbollah ... and the specifications we want are present in the person of Suleiman Franjieh."

And while the Lebanese parliament failed over the course of 11 sessions to elect a new president, its speaker, Nabih Berri, has refrained for weeks from calling for a new session before he was sure that it would lead to the election of a president.

Hassan Nasrallah (right) said that Hezbollah's conditions and specifications for the presidency apply to Franjieh (communication sites)

This comes while many are anticipating the position of the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil, on the support of his ally, Hezbollah, the candidacy of his opponent, Franjieh, because their alliance is going through the most critical and delicate stages since the announcement of their understanding paper in 2005.

Experts also believe that it is the only serious declaration so far, while the nomination of Representative Michel Moawad by Hezbollah's opponents - led by the Forces Party - was within the framework of a duel and the search for a settlement later.

The dispute reinforces Franjieh's lack of a Christian incubator from the major blocs, which leads to questions about his chances of being elected, the nature of the political clash and the position of the regional powers on his candidacy.

Hassan Nasrallah announces his party's support for the arrival of former deputy and minister Suleiman Franjieh to the presidency in #Lebanon pic.twitter.com/OL2CqXHEgK

- Al-Jazeera Channel (@AJArabic) March 6, 2023

Franjieh nomination semantics

In a reading of the backgrounds of Franjieh's candidacy, writer and political analyst Ali Hamadeh says that Franjieh was known to be the real and actual candidate of Hezbollah, the Amal movement, and some of their allies.

And what happened - according to Hamada - is Nasrallah's revelation and consecration of the known, stopping at the issue of the fact that the Shiite duo (Hezbollah and the Amal movement) took the initiative to announce Franjieh, instead of announcing it himself, considering that the initiative of the duo weakened his candidacy, according to the sensitivity of the traditional sectarian equation, that the component The Shiite announced the name of the candidate for the first Maronite position, expecting an indirect response from the Maronite Patriarch Beshara Al-Rai.

He pointed out the possibility that his candidacy could also fuel political and sectarian fanaticism, as it was rejected by several parties, as came after the inability of the five-year international meeting that was held in Paris a few weeks ago, and included representatives of the United States, France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt, to reach a formula that facilitates externally the completion of the presidential elections internally.

On the other hand, writer and political analyst Daoud Rammal considers that Nasrallah's speech puts the presidential file on the table for consultation, but it may reflect negatively on him, as he turned into a candidate for a party that has many and complex regional problems with the outside world.

It's funny the scene of the Free Patriotic Movement meeting with the Lebanese Forces over rejecting the candidacy of Suleiman Franjieh.

They confidently wonder about specifications that were not in any of the president they brought together and called him strong.

Sayyed Nasrallah's speech seemed clear: "You will walk with us or you will walk on your own."

- Enas Karimeh (@EnassKarimeh) March 7, 2023

political screening

Ali Hamadeh believes that Franjieh's candidacy has made the presidential election more complicated, and may raise the level of tension, especially with Basil's opposition to Franjieh's election, and blocking the way for a third candidate, such as Army Commander Joseph Aoun.

He added that Bassil is betting that the relationship with Hezbollah will not completely explode, "but the political clash could lead to a confrontation whose results are not calculated politically."

In turn, Rammal believes that the sorting has become according to the following: most of the March 8 forces (with the exception of the Free Patriotic Movement) and its obvious candidate, Suleiman Franjieh, in exchange for most of what is known as the March 14 forces (the Lebanese Forces, Kataeb, and Progressive Socialist Party) and its declared candidate, Michel Moawad, despite his lack of support. broad politician.

This equation may push - according to Rammal - to move to a third name, "if we witness a parallel external movement that pushes towards the achievement of maturity."

Intractability and negotiation

Hamadeh believes that Franjieh's name is non-negotiable for Hezbollah and the Amal movement, and the call for dialogue that Berri previously and Nasrallah later launched was to search for a mechanism for formulating a satisfactory settlement for the opponents that would ensure Franjieh's arrival.

Perhaps the duo's insistence on Franjieh's name - according to Hamadeh - is part of Hezbollah's strategic calculations, on the basis that the presidency is the point of balance in the Lebanese system, and is sufficient to protect its back externally.

It is considered that the control of the political system by Hezbollah requires holding a fixed presidency for 6 years, while holding the presidency of Parliament that controls the political game for 4 years, in return for not reluctance to conclude a deal on the presidency of the government, whose term remains mobile and it is easy to overturn it.

In other words: "The two sides want the presidency from their share in return for negotiating the presidency of the government from the share of their opponents," according to Hamadeh.

On the other hand, Daoud Rammal finds that the duo is luring everyone into negotiation, as it seeks to secure a two-thirds quorum, as a card previously used in the process of disrupting the presidential election before Aoun's arrival, and perhaps the duo has data that they are able to secure half plus one (65 votes) to elect Franjieh.

session fate

Ali Hamadeh expects that Nabih Berri will call for a session to elect a president as soon as possible, and Hezbollah will try to win over and tempt Gebran Bassil with a set of gains, definitely on the way to joining the opponents of Franjieh's election.

And he talks about data about the opposition forces seeking to prevent the blocs from leaking to support Franjieh, as the Lebanese Forces party seeks to unite the opposition, and a new approach to the relationship with the Free Patriotic Movement, as required by the interest of blocking Franjieh.

On the other hand, Daoud Rammal does not expect Berri to call soon for a session to elect a president, because it is conditioned on ensuring the election of a president, that is, after agreeing on the mechanism for entering parliament and how to manage the related benefits, most notably the next government.

And he believes that the duo provided a service to the parliamentary blocs, specifically the Christian ones, because the announcement of Franjieh's candidacy made it easier for the opponents to manage the presidential battle, and it became against a clear name, and not against a white paper.

Franjieh and the region

Suleiman Franjieh (57 years), former deputy and minister, is considered one of the oldest and most prominent allies of Hezbollah Christians, and he has a close personal relationship and friendship with the head of the Syrian regime, Bashar al-Assad, which makes him, according to experts, the candidate of Iran, Hezbollah and the Syrian regime.

The leader of the Marada Movement hails from the Zgharta region in northern Lebanon - which has a Maronite majority - which witnessed a fierce battle in the parliamentary elections.

Although Franjieh's list won only two parliamentary seats, for Representatives Tony Suleiman Franjieh and William Tawk, Franjieh has a long political legacy from his family, a number of whose members were killed in the civil war, not to mention that his grandfather is the late President Suleiman Franjieh.

Here, Ali Hamadeh believes that the Arab position on Franjieh will be revealed by Saudi Arabia later, in coordination with its partners in the Gulf Cooperation Council.

While "France may shirk its view of the need to complete the elections, regardless of the identity of the president, because Washington, which leaves it a wide margin to move, will have a closer position to the Arab position, given that Franjieh is Iran's candidate through its strong arm, Hezbollah," according to Hamadeh's description.

He says that the achievement of the merits is difficult to obtain, and if Hezbollah succeeds in delivering Franjieh, Lebanon will enter a stage of a prolonged clash similar to the clash after the extension of former President Emile Lahoud in 2004, and the accompanying major security disturbances.

For his part, Rammal believes that "if the next president is not affiliated with a regional axis, then the external and Gulf openness towards Lebanon will begin, and the political, economic and financial blockade will recede. But if a president affiliated with the axis of resistance arrives, the blockade will continue and the subsequent exacerbation of crises and turmoil." .