Romain Rouillard 6:00 p.m., March 06, 2023

As France has just recorded its driest February since 1959, questions are being raised about the availability of water resources over the coming summer.

Nevertheless, according to some specialists, it is still too early to adhere to the most pessimistic hypotheses.

DECRYPTION

While we can naturally rejoice in having been able to take advantage of a largely sunny winter, the significant rainfall deficit recorded in February darkens the picture considerably.

On February 22, Météo France even announced the longest drought ever recorded with 32 consecutive days without any significant rain in France.

So much so that the Minister for the Ecological Transition, Christophe Béchu, called on the prefects, at the start of last week, to take orders restricting water "from now on", adding that "the humidity of the soil is in places comparable at the end of a month of May".

While the summer of 2022 had already been marked by an unprecedented drought, 

Tensions related to water sharing? 

Usually regenerated during the winter, the water tables show a filling rate that is far too low for the season.

However, it is much more difficult for rainwater to penetrate when the vegetation regains its rights because it is retained more in the soil by the roots of the trees.

In the event of a new episode of drought next summer, the situation would then become quite critical.

"I think that large cities may have occasional difficulties in supplying drinking water. Many rural municipalities in Brittany, the Massif Central or the hinterland of Nice or Var will also be affected", predicts Alexandre Brun, geographer, urban planner and lecturer at Paul-Valéry University in Montpellier. 

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A reality that could lead to tensions related to the sharing of water.

"Brittany, for example, depends above all on surface water. So we could pull the pipe to use the neighbour's water, the Paris Basin in particular. But the neighbor in question risks not being very cooperative. So concretely, we could see tensions between cities and countryside", analyzes the specialist.

If this drought continues next summer, it could also hamper river circulation due to the lack of depth in the rivers whose supply depends on groundwater.

“We will therefore have a transfer to the road, for a much worse environmental assessment. This could also lead to delivery delays for certain materials”, notes Alexandre Brun. 

Too early to predict the "apocalypse"

Nevertheless, in the opinion of several specialists, it is still too early to risk such predictions.

"There is a rainfall deficit, it is undeniable. Now, it is very difficult to make a quantitative forecast of the rain beyond 15 days", nuance Vazken Andréassian, hydrologist and director of research at INRAE.

According to him, if the situation is badly embarked, it is not excluded that the situation could still change.

"It's a bit like when you concede two goals in the first five minutes in a football game. Technically you can still win the game but you are not in the best condition to do so." 

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Clearly, if the country were to experience heavy rainfall in the weeks to come, summer could be considered under better auspices.

"In 2021, the summer was very humid in a lot of regions of France, especially in the North of France", recalls Vazken Andréassian.

The specialist therefore gives little credence to the most alarmist hypotheses.

"In addition, we talk a lot about groundwater but the 'French water table' does not exist. There are many quite different local situations. There is also the fact that it will certainly rain more in some places than in others. others. There are also places where the water table has a greater inertia. In short, predicting the apocalypse for the whole terrain does not seem serious to me". 

Still, the rate of filling of groundwater remains the indicator favored by the prefects to take water restriction measures during the summer.

"It is this indicator, which is not so bad, which determines whether you will have the right to fill your swimming pool or wash your car", recalls the expert.

In other words, in the event of a drought this summer, all French people would suffer repercussions.

And this even if the drought does not reach the most critical thresholds.