The Secretary-General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Jens Stoltenberg, visited Japan and South Korea from January 29 to February 1, where he met in the capital, Seoul, with the defense and foreign ministers of South Korea, and he also met in the capital, Tokyo, with the president Japanese Minister Fumio Kishida, and this visit came after Japan announced in mid-December the new national security strategy, and South Korea announced in the same month its strategy for the Indian and Pacific Oceans (Indo-Pacific region).

Stoltenberg's visit comes in the context of accelerating international competition between the United States and China, as Washington was recently able to put on the agenda of NATO and the Group of Seven the priority of containing China and addressing what it considers "its efforts to undermine the international system," which necessarily requires strengthening economic and military ties with the powers of the region. Indo-Pacific, in particular Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Pacific Islands, to increase pressure on China on the one hand, and to prevent it from expanding its influence at the expense of its neighbors on the other hand, given that regional hegemony represents a necessary step in the path of China's rise as an international power, and therefore it must That the West works to disrupt it.

The declaration of Japan and South Korea on strategic directions cannot be separated from this escalating conflict, especially as it accompanies Beijing's adoption of a bolder foreign policy.

Japan.. Towards an offensive military doctrine

Japan views increasing Chinese incursions into Taiwan's airspace as one of the main security threats to the country.

(Al Jazeera)

The first Japanese national security document was issued in 2013 during the reign of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was adopting declared approaches to change the country's security doctrine in light of regional and international changes, and despite taking some steps and sticking to defending this approach until his assassination last year, it did not happen. - No - any real change in the Japanese constitution, especially Article 9, in which Tokyo commits not to have a conventional army and to suffice only with the "Japanese Self-Defense Force (JSDF)", as well as imposing a complete ban regarding arms exports.

Therefore, the new national security document is of particular importance because it approves a set of unprecedented steps capable of rendering constitutional restrictions ineffective even if they remain unchanged.

The new Japanese National Security Strategy includes three defense documents, which were officially approved by the government on December 16, 2022. The first is the National Security Strategy, which defines the general lines of the country's defense policy for the next decade. The second is the National Defense Strategy, which defines defense objectives and the means to achieve them. Finally, there is The Defense Construction Program that outlines major defense expenditures and procurement over the next five to ten years.

Japan's national security principles defined by the strategy consider the Japanese-US alliance, and the provision of extended deterrence, as "the cornerstone of Japan's national security policy." It also considers that this alliance plays an indispensable role for Japan's security and for achieving peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region.

Therefore, the strategy stresses the need to maintain and strengthen the US commitment to the region, and work to strengthen the Japanese-US alliance in all areas, including diplomacy, defense, and the economy.

The Japanese document also considers that Chinese military activities "represent - in an unprecedented manner - the greatest strategic challenge to ensuring Japan's peace and security," and that it is "a source of great concern" for Japan and the international community. , including its nuclear and missile capabilities, in addition to China's intensification of its attempts to unilaterally change the status quo by force in the maritime and airspaces in the East and South China seas, such as its intrusion into territorial waters and airspace around the disputed "Senkaku/Diaoyu" islands. between the two sides.

Currently, Japan only has the ability to intercept missiles directed at it, which is not sufficient to deter regional threats. Therefore, the new strategy establishes radical changes in Japan's security and defense policy.

(Reuters)

Similarly, Japan views the increasing Chinese incursions into Taiwan's airspace as one of the main security threats to the country, as China's behavior could lead to a major conflict between Washington and Beijing over Taiwan, a conflict that Japan is likely to be drawn into, given its proximity to the Taiwan Strait, The fact that it houses a large US military base in Okinawa could become a target for Chinese attacks.

In addition to China, Japan's Defense Strategy explicitly considers that "North Korea's military activities pose a more serious and imminent threat to Japan's national security than ever before," highlighting aspects such as North Korea's rapid development of intercontinental ballistic missile-related technologies, as well as the promotion of Its nuclear capabilities in terms of quality and quantity at maximum speed, in addition to Pyongyang's launch last year alone of more than 50 ballistic missiles that fell into the waters between Japan and North Korea, and its flight over Japan with an intercontinental ballistic missile last October.

With regard to the Russian threat, the document states that Russia's "aggression" against Ukraine clearly shows that Russia does not hesitate to resort to military means to achieve its security goals. Therefore, the Japanese strategy classifies Russia's foreign and military activities in the Indo-Pacific region as a "strong security concern," It refers to Russia's acceleration of its military activities in Japan's neighborhood, especially strengthening its armaments in the "Northern Territories", referring to the Kuril Islands, which Japan does not recognize Russia's sovereignty over.

Moreover, Russia has been increasing strategic coordination with China in recent years, especially military activities in Japan's neighborhood.

Notably, Russia designated Japan an "unfriendly" country, after Tokyo joined the G7 in imposing sanctions on Moscow in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

In order to face all these "challenges", Tokyo approved in the defense strategy a significant increase in annual military spending, from 1% to 2% of GDP, as Tokyo will spend about $320 billion over 5 years, and the annual defense budget will reach as much as Approximately $80 to $90 billion by 2027. Japan also aims to purchase 16 American F-16 fighters, develop the FX jet fighter jointly with Britain and Italy, as well as fund research and development of long-range and hypersonic missiles.

Tokyo is still pursuing a policy of establishing a balanced and stable relationship with Beijing within the approach of "hot economic relations and cold political relations."

(Reuters)

In practice, Japan currently has only the ability to intercept missiles directed at it, which is insufficient to deter regional threats. Therefore, the new strategy establishes radical changes in Japan's security and defense policy, as Tokyo seeks for the first time since World War II to possess Counterstrike capabilities as a precautionary step against any possible attack, which means Japan's ability to target fixed military installations deep in enemy territory, according to three main conditions: the existence of an inevitable threat to Japan or a friendly country that leads to an inevitable threat to Japan, and the absence of any other alternatives To avoid possible hostile strikes, and finally, the response must be proportionate and within the minimum necessary to eliminate the source of the threat.

Accordingly, Japan has taken long-term steps towards increasing the range of the domestic cruise missile to about 1,500 km, as well as developing alternatives that can be launched from air, sea, and submarines. It has also announced that it will obtain 500 Tomahawk land cruise missiles from the United States. , which has a range of 1,600 km, in conjunction with the direction of Tokyo and Washington towards a much deeper level of military cooperation and integration currently in place, especially since the strategy approves the establishment of a unified military command for the Japanese and American land, sea and air forces.

However, this new military orientation of Japan does not mean that the countries are seeking to engage in an actual military confrontation anytime soon. Tokyo is still pursuing a policy of establishing a balanced and stable relationship with Beijing within the approach of "hot economic relations and cold political relations", while Tokyo is taking steps to strengthen Its deterrence capabilities also tend to support its strong economic relations with China, a fact that is evident in China's position as Japan's largest trading partner.

On the other hand, Beijing is likely to continue its opposition to Japan's moves seeking to enhance its military capabilities, and Beijing could resort to imposing economic sanctions on Japanese companies and preventing them from accessing the huge Chinese market if Japan engages in what China considers unacceptable measures, such as Tokyo's participation in the The "American missile shield" system, or participation in a tripartite military alliance that includes the United States and South Korea.

South Korea's Indo-Pacific Strategy

The relationship with Japan was described as a "progressive partnership" between two "like-minded" countries, referring to their commitment to the values ​​of democracy and liberalism and the defense of the rules-based international order.

(Getty Images)

Turning to the Korean side, South Korea's strategy for the Indo-Pacific region is based on adhering to international values ​​and strengthening the rules-based international order. The document shows a clear divergence in the tone used towards the United States, Japan and China, as it pledged to continue strengthening the "alliance" with the United States. Considering it to be the "axis of peace and prosperity" in the region over the past 70 years, it also emphasized its efforts to develop into a "comprehensive global strategic alliance that includes not only security, but also the economy, advanced technologies, cyberspace and supply chains."

On the other hand, the relationship with Japan was described as a "forward-looking partnership" between two countries united by "like-minded", referring to their commitment to the values ​​of democracy and liberalism and the defense of the rules-based international order. The strategy also stresses the necessity Improving relations with Japan and continuing diplomatic efforts to restore mutual trust, in reference to the outstanding differences between the two countries.

With regard to China, the strategy adopted calm language, compared to the Japanese document, aimed at not antagonizing China, as Seoul's strategy considers that Beijing is "the main partner for achieving prosperity and peace in the Indo-Pacific region," stressing the pursuit of a "more solid and mature" relationship based on respect. Mutual and reciprocal treatment, but at the same time the strategy sends a message to China that future cooperation will depend primarily on China's actions and its commitment to international standards and values.

While the document ignored Russia in a remarkable way, it affirmed South Korea's commitment to strengthening its partnership with NATO, and developing this partnership through the recently established Korea Mission to NATO. It also praised President Yun Seok Yul's participation in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in June 2022. As the first Korean president to do so.

South Korea has significantly doubled arms sales to the West, in line with efforts to strengthen security and military relations between Seoul and NATO, as last August Poland signed a record $15 billion arms sales deal from South Korea, and in general since 2014 it has sold South Korea Weapons for Norway, Finland, Estonia, Turkey, Australia and India.

Perhaps most of all, the new strategy obliges South Korea to actively participate in regional affairs, and to oppose any unilateral attempts to change the status quo in the Indo-Pacific region, which means that the Seoul government will have to follow the path of previous governments that have shied away from involvement in conflicts in the East. And the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait to avoid Beijing's reaction, and it is expected that China will exert economic pressure on South Korea as much as the practical steps that Seoul will take in the direction of implementing the strategy.

From the North Atlantic to Asia.. What do these changes mean?

Radical changes in Japan's defense doctrine simply mean that Washington has succeeded in attracting a significant ally to Western strategic efforts aimed at impeding China's rise.

(Reuters)

The visit of the Secretary-General of NATO to Japan and South Korea indicates the crystallization of a Western strategy based on the fact that the interests and security of North Atlantic and Asia are no longer separate, especially in light of the prospects for the growth of Russian-Chinese relations. Strengthening security and military cooperation between the United States and its Western allies on the one hand and Japan and Korea will lead The South on the other hand, in addition to the new security strategies of Tokyo and Seoul, to stimulate China's concerns more as an escalation in the US strategic efforts to contain its influence, which contributes to the increase in geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific region.

Specifically, the Japanese strategy, as well as the increase in the defense budget, will lead to deepening Tokyo's relations with the Indo-Pacific countries that have common goals related to maritime security activities, such as South Korea, Australia, the Philippines and Taiwan, as these countries will consider that the Japanese steps will contribute to easing the burdens of maritime security activities represented in freedom Navigation and fishing rights, which come on the list of their security priorities, also support their efforts in confronting the growing threats from Beijing and Pyongyang.

More importantly, the radical changes in Japan's defense doctrine simply mean that Washington has succeeded in attracting a significant ally to Western strategic efforts aimed at impeding the rise of China, a success that comes after another success represented in Germany's plans to rearm to counter the Russian threat, both of which are developments that have far-reaching geopolitical repercussions. At the international level, it is too early to say for sure.

These developments are of increasing importance given that they come after Washington formed triple and quadruple alliances such as the AUKUS alliance (comprising the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia), the QUAD alliance (the United States, Japan, India and Australia), and in In this framework, the strategies of Japan and South Korea can be viewed as part of Washington's efforts to push the two countries to strengthen their bilateral relations and overcome historical differences, given that the formation of an alliance that brings together the three countries, or South Korea's accession to the "Quad" alliance, enhances the organization of US strategic efforts to contain China. .

During the current decade, which Washington considers decisive in countering China's influence, the United States is not likely to reduce its strategic presence in the Indo-Pacific region, but, in the long term, Japan's development of its military capabilities and its possession of higher capabilities may contribute to reducing the security burden borne by the United States. the United States in the region, and may reduce the direct involvement of US forces in protecting their security interests in the region.

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This article is published in agreement with Asbab.

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