(Two sessions face to face) How does China drive the "locomotive" of high-quality economic recovery?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, March 2. Question: How does China drive the "locomotive" of high-quality economic recovery?

　　——Interview with Yu Miaojie, deputy to the 14th National People's Congress and president of Liaoning University

　　China News Agency reporter Zheng Jiawei

　　This year's National Two Sessions will be held soon.

Against the backdrop of still bleak prospects for global economic recovery, the outside world is keenly watching China's economy.

At present, what are the "locomotives" driving the high-quality recovery of China's economy?

How can these "locomotives" be effectively driven?

China News Agency invited Yu Miaojie, a representative of the 14th National People's Congress and president of Liaoning University, to interpret the "Two Sessions Face to Face".

　An excerpt from the interview is as follows:

　　China News Agency reporter: Some people believe that under the influence of multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts and trade protectionism, there is still great uncertainty about whether the global economy will get out of the "low interest rate, low inflation, and low growth" situation this year. Or will continue to weaken, China needs to find new economic growth points.

What do you think about this point of view?

Yu Miaojie:

I have a different view on this. Exports this year are still one of the most important "locomotives" driving the high-quality recovery of China's economy.

There are two main reasons for the recent pessimism about external demand.

One is to worry about the economic crisis in Europe and the United States, which will greatly reduce the purchase of Chinese products.

But the reality has changed, and purchasing power in the US and European countries remains strong.

　　The second is to worry that China's supply chain and value chain have not yet recovered, and the supply capacity is insufficient.

If China's supply side is only hovering at a low level of supply, exports will indeed face challenges.

But this year China has a clear goal: to create consumption scenarios through high-quality supply, and even redefine consumption to provide strong support for exports.

Based on this, I judge that China's exports will remain strong this year, and there may be a trade surplus of 5 trillion yuan.

China News Agency reporter: How do you think this year's policies will work to better drive the important "locomotive" of "export"?

　Yu Miaojie:

The driving hub is to create effective demand through high-quality supply.

For example, just like the mobile phone industry was basically saturated in 2007, when traditional mobile phones had reached the extreme.

However, the emergence of smart phones has redefined the mobile phone. It is no longer just a communication tool, but also a handy computer with rich functions, thus reopening the market space. We have also witnessed a substantial increase in the consumption potential of mobile phones.

In other words, China must achieve more similar innovations on the supply side through high-quality development and create more effective demand.

　　In high-quality supply, the external supply of China's digital technology is crucial.

In recent years, the central and local governments have been vigorously promoting digital industrialization and industrial digitization, and stimulate economic development through intelligent manufacturing and digital manufacturing.

This year, we will continue to encourage breakthroughs in high-tech, new, special, and refined fields, and strive to achieve corner overtaking on the supply side through the empowerment of the digital economy and digital technology.

　　Of course, the diversification of export destinations is also very important, not limited to mature markets such as Europe and the United States.

Because in the long run, the gradual shrinkage of the US market is an inevitable trend. Developing countries and emerging economies should be the key development targets. The government should do a good job in supporting policies, planning in advance, and advancing steadily.

China News Service reporter: We noticed that the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of last year put "strengthening domestic demand" at the top of this year's economic work. What role do you think domestic demand and consumption will play in the high-quality recovery of China's economy?

Yu Miaojie:

Consumption is another important "locomotive" of the Chinese economy this year.

China's strategy of expanding domestic demand is an inevitable requirement for coping with changes in the international environment, and it is a strategy to respond to all changes without change.

The phrase "organically combining the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with the deepening of supply-side structural reform" is very critical. The combination of expanding domestic demand and supply-side structural reform is actually to create effective demand through more high-quality supply. We have already done this It has been discussed, and it is also the fundamental support for the strategy of expanding domestic demand.

　China News Agency reporter: In your opinion, what new measures will China take to further restore and expand consumption this year?

Yu Miaojie:

From a macro perspective, China needs to better protect residents' income, employment, and market players that create jobs.

The current situation is that the Chinese economy has been affected and impacted in the past three years. We must adopt a prudent monetary policy to assist and support the real economy with funds.

Among them, the banking industry must focus on changing the past situation where big banks supported large enterprises and small banks supported small enterprises. Now, banks regardless of size should support small and medium-sized enterprises, because small and medium-sized enterprises are the most difficult under the epidemic situation. Support for industries that have a relatively serious impact, such as catering, tourism, hotels, transportation, etc.

　　But maintaining employment does not necessarily mean expanding consumption, because it also depends on whether residents’ disposable income can be effectively increased. This is the second point I want to say: effectively increase the proportion of disposable income in total residents’ income, which is Demand that the government continue to cut taxes and fees.

In addition, the government has to increase investment in infrastructure, but this means that government revenue may decline. Therefore, a proactive fiscal policy must be adopted to provide a basis for further tax and fee reductions.

　　It should be noted that the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand is also based on further opening up to the outside world. At present, China must comprehensively build a new pattern of opening up to the outside world and actively introduce foreign capital, technology and management experience in order to go back and further stimulate China's ultra-large-scale Market advantage and internal driving potential, tap endogenous power.

China's economic situation is generally optimistic

　China News Agency reporter: The economic growth targets announced by China's two sessions every year are the focus of attention from the outside world.

We have also noticed that the economic growth targets set by various regions this year are relatively stable, mostly between 5% and 6%.

What do you think is a reasonable range for China's overall economic growth this year?

　　Yu Miaojie:

China's economic situation this year is generally optimistic, and it is possible to achieve a GDP growth rate of 6% or even higher.

There are two evidences to support this judgment.

　　From the perspective of the external environment, the international community has generally raised expectations for China's economy this year.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on February 3 that China's economic growth rate in 2023 will increase from 3% in 2022 to 5.2% due to the rebound in private sector consumption brought about by China's earlier-than-expected optimization and adjustment of entry-exit policies. That's 0.8 percentage points higher than the IMF's forecast in October last year.

But I personally think 5.2% is quite conservative.

　　From the perspective of internal potential, the most important point of support is that the economic growth potential that was not realized last year will be fully released this year.

Under the impact of the epidemic and other factors, China will only achieve a GDP growth rate of 3% in 2022, and the economic growth potential of 1%-2% has not been fully realized.

This year, China's economy has demonstrated sufficient vigor and vitality in the past month. According to the current situation, it can completely "make up" the growth of 1%-2% last year, plus the estimated growth of about 5% and 6%. Even higher GDP growth is quite possible.

(over)