Recently, according to "China News Weekly" and other media reports, since 2023, Beijing, Guangzhou, Jinan, and Dalian have issued compulsory education degree warnings.
Beijing’s 2023 government work report stated that from 2017 to 2022, Beijing has accumulatively increased 180,000 primary and secondary school places, and plans to continue to increase 20,000 primary and secondary school places in 2023.
These degree pressures stem from the substantial increase in the birth population in the year when the "universal two-child" policy was implemented in 2016.
However, the other side of the story is that after just one year of the birth peak, the birth population in my country has continued to decline rapidly since 2017, from 17.23 million in that year to 9.56 million in 2022.
The large fluctuations in the birth population have caused a series of chain reactions to educational resources at different stages.
The decline in the number of births will naturally affect kindergartens first. According to reports, the first round of kindergarten closures has already occurred.
It is not difficult to predict that primary schools, secondary schools and colleges will face population fluctuations in turn, which will eventually affect the labor market.
Simply calculated based on the birth population, many places issued degree warnings this year because 2016 and 2017 are the peak years of birth population since the 21st century.
At the same time, because there will be only 12 million children born in 2020, 5.23 million fewer than in 2017, kindergartens in some places this year have become "difficult to find a child".
According to the changes in the birth population, if the current enrollment scale of colleges and universities remains unchanged, by 2039, the number of college enrollments in my country is likely to exceed the birth population.
In the next few years, will a group of kindergartens and schools be closed?
This is a matter of considerable public concern.
Obviously, in response to changes in the birth population, relevant departments should make forward-looking top-level design, scientifically arrange school development, take the opportunity of the reduction in birth population, improve school (kindergarten) construction standards, promote the construction of small schools (gardens) and small classes, implement Small-class teaching and personalized education can improve the quality of school teaching, relieve social educational anxiety, and build a birth-friendly society.
Take kindergarten as an example.
According to the number of births, by 2024, there may be tens of millions more kindergarten places in my country.
If the current kindergarten class size and teacher-to-child ratio remain unchanged, a considerable number of kindergartens will reduce the number of teachers due to dissatisfaction with recruitment, or even close down.
However, the current teacher-to-child ratio in kindergartens in my country is obviously low. According to the National Statistical Bulletin on Educational Development, in 2021, there will be 48.0521 million preschool children in kindergartens in my country, 3.191 million full-time teachers in preschool education, and a teacher-to-child ratio of full-time teachers. 1:15.
In developed countries, this ratio is about 1:10, 1:9, and some countries can even reach 1:7.
Increasing the teacher-to-child ratio can not only improve the working environment of preschool teachers, but also improve the quality of preschool education.
If the teacher-to-child ratio of full-time teachers is increased to 1:10, the number of kindergarten teachers in our country will not increase due to the decrease in the birth population.
But to achieve this, the relevant departments need to increase the per-student allocation for preschool education and increase investment in pre-school education. If the current per-student allocation standard is used to allocate funds, there will be fewer children in kindergartens, making it difficult for kindergartens to continue.
The same is true for the construction of teachers and school development in other stages of education.
According to the National Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Education, in 2021, there will be 21,000 large and super large classes with more than 56 students in primary schools in my country, accounting for 0.73% of the total number of classes.
Among them, there are 482 super large classes with more than 66 students, accounting for 0.02% of the total number of classes.
According to statistics, the average class size of ordinary primary schools in my country is 38, and that of junior high schools is 46.
In developed countries, the class size of primary and junior high schools is between 20 and 25 students.
Therefore, when the number of students in school decreases, whether to develop primary school education according to the current class size, or to reduce the class size to between 20 and 25 students requires local governments to make decisions.
Reducing the class size and increasing the teacher-student ratio (teacher-to-child ratio) are the correct choices to deal with the reduction in the birth population.
This move can not only improve the quality of school education, but also make the scale of the school and the number of degrees flexible.
In the future, with the implementation of measures to encourage births, if the birth population rises again, schools will have sufficient space to accept additional school-age children.
Xiong Bingqi Source: China Youth Daily