Was he born dead?.. American experts question the results of the Aqaba meeting

Washington -

Since the most extreme right-wing government in Israel's history came to power last December, the occupation's crimes against the Palestinians have escalated, leading to reactions and armed clashes that have intensified in the recent period.

This sparked Arab anger and international fears of being drawn into an Israeli-Palestinian conflict on a larger scale. Therefore, several initiatives for calm came, the most recent of which was the Aqaba meeting yesterday in Jordan, which was attended by representatives of the governments of Israel, Palestine, Jordan, Egypt and the United States.

According to the final statement of the Aqaba meeting, the Palestinian and Israeli sides agreed to support confidence-building steps to address outstanding issues through direct dialogue, and affirmed their commitment to all previous agreements between them, and work to achieve a just and lasting peace, and another meeting will be held in Sharm El-Sheikh next March to achieve the goals set in Aqaba.

However, many American experts questioned the success of the truce efforts, especially with the martyrdom of 62 Palestinians and the killing of 13 Israelis since the beginning of this year, which is a record rate in recent years.

The Palestinian resistance factions had preceded the Aqaba meeting by denouncing the participation of the Palestinian Authority, and considered it "a new stab at the sacrifices of the Palestinian people and a betrayal of the sacrifices of the martyrs."

Here's hoping the commitments in Aqaba communique from today's meeting will be honored.

But I worry.

The late movie mogul Samuel Goldwyn quipped an oral agreement isn't worth the paper it's written on.

Smotrich and Ben Gvir already denounced it.

https://t.co/ZrVCwle2Jv

— Aaron David Miller (@aarondmiller2) February 26, 2023

American fears

The American side fears an escalation of the security situation with the advent of the holy month of Ramadan and the Jewish Passover, which historically witnessed an increase in violence between the two parties.

The participation of Brett McGurk, the Middle East official at the National Security Council, in the Aqaba meeting, reflected the seriousness of the White House in trying to restore calm to the region.

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said the meeting was a starting point and implementation would be critical, adding that "the United States will continue to actively engage on this formula with all parties in the coming weeks."

And US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken had demanded - after the end of his visit to the West Bank and Israel at the beginning of this month - that Barbara Leaf, Assistant Minister for Near Eastern Affairs, remain, in order to meet with Hadi Amr, Special Representative for Palestinian Affairs, with the aim of discussing "constructive ideas for practical steps that each side can take." to de-escalate the situation."

A complex American vision

Washington believes in the weakness of the Palestinian Authority and its security forces over the past three years, particularly in the northern West Bank where it lacks popular support due to the ongoing economic crisis, accusations of corruption, and lack of progress in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

This led to the Palestinian Authority effectively losing control over the city of Jenin and its refugee camp, as they are now controlled by armed groups affiliated with Islamic Jihad and Hamas, as well as members of Fatah who do not abide by the instructions of the Palestinian Authority leadership, according to the American vision.

And American estimates indicate that the Palestinian Authority enjoys greater control over the city of Nablus, but at the same time armed movements are gaining increasing popularity, especially among Palestinian youth.

Pro-Israel right-wing think tanks also estimate that the Israeli army raids Jenin and Nablus from time to time because the PA security forces do not do so themselves.

This is at a time when the Palestinian side believes that the Israeli incursions undermine its ability and legitimacy to act against armed groups.

American doubts

American experts believe that Washington's renewed confidence in the Palestinian Authority is not based on its good performance, but rather on the lack of alternative options on the one hand, and on the other hand, they believe that there is also no confidence in the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

For his part, Aaron David Miller, senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, questioned the parties' fulfillment of the obligations contained in the agreement.

Miller, who was also a negotiator in the Middle East peace talks, tweeted, "We hope to fulfill the commitments contained in the Aqaba Statement issued by today's meeting, but I am concerned. As the late film magnate Samuel Goldwyn said sarcastically, a verbal agreement is not worth the paper it is written on, and Smotrich and Ben Gvir denounced it." By agreement already."

Two things are clear: a) the #PalestinianAuthority is unable/unwilling to secure areas it nominally controls;

b) the #Israel gov is not acting as though it has an interest in preventing PA's collapse.

Difficult to see how this ends well.

https://t.co/UqfO6UN51i via @timesofisrael

— Robert Satloff (@robsatloff) February 24, 2023

Robert Satloff, executive director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, tweeted, "Two things are clear: (a) the Palestinian Authority is unable/unwilling to secure the areas it controls, and (b) the Israeli government does not act as if "It has an interest in preventing the collapse of the Palestinian Authority. It's hard to see how well this ends."

Here's the communique from today's Aqaba security summit.

An important forum has been created to try to prevent violence from escalating out of control.

Bringing Jordan and Egypt formally into that process is helpful.

But I fear it's too late.

https://t.co/i0yS4vErqB

— Martin Indyk (@Martin_Indyk) February 26, 2023

Pessimism was expressed by Ambassador Martin Indyk, a former US envoy to the Middle East peace process and now an expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, and said in a tweet, "This Aqaba Statement issued today and this forum is an important attempt to prevent the escalation of violence out of control. It is useful to formally involve Jordan and Egypt in this." process, but I'm afraid it's too late."

In a statement, Americans for Peace Now, concerned with ending the Israeli occupation of the occupied Palestinian territories, called on US President Joe Biden's administration to shift from words to deeds, and from statements to affirming the consequences of violations of the language or spirit of the Aqaba understandings.

# Summit_of_shame.

- Al-Jazeera Channel (@AJArabic) February 26, 2023

US security coordinator

In this context, Israeli media reported new details about the American plan known as "Fenzel" (in reference to the American security coordinator Michael Fenzel) to restore the control of the Palestinian security services over the Jenin and Nablus regions.

Michael Wenzel leads security coordination efforts between the government of Israel and the Palestinian Authority, and the strengthening of security cooperation between them. Wenzel supervises more than 75 security specialists from 9 NATO countries, and he is based in Jerusalem, in addition to advanced sites in the city of Ramallah in the West Bank.

A recent study by the US Congressional Research Service stated that the original purpose of the Security Coordinator's presence since March 2005 was to help end violence by providing effective Palestinian security services, thus facilitating coordination and cooperation on mutual security issues, in addition to developing an effective and sustainable Palestinian security force.

The most important thing included in the plan is the provision of training 5,000 Palestinian security personnel to prepare Palestinian special forces. The training will take place inside Jordanian territory under American supervision, provided that the entry of the Palestinian forces into the new headquarters in Jenin and Nablus coincides with the reduction of the activities of the Israeli occupation army in these areas.