A year after the start of Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine, there are several possibilities for the future of this war. Will we witness a "protracted conflict", a forced settlement, or a "Russian collapse leading to a comprehensive defeat"?
Will the promised Western tanks help the Ukrainian army launch a "counterattack" or will things turn into a "war of positions and a permanent exchange of bombing"?
The French newspaper Le Monde asked 5 experts about their perception of the results of this war, on the occasion of the first anniversary of the Russian attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The responses were as follows, as reported by Jean-Philippe Leviev.
Nobody can win
Camille Grand, a researcher and head of the Defense Studies Department at the European Council on International Relations and former Deputy Secretary-General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), questioned the capabilities of both sides, and out of 3 possible possibilities from a military perspective, he favored his first hypothesis, which is the "permanent war" that No party can win it, believing that each party may think it is in his interest due to his own considerations.
The second hypothesis - according to the expert - is that the Ukrainians who do not mention their losses may be more exhausted than imagined, and then they will end up being forced to accept a compromise, although this possibility is politically unacceptable and out of the question, given their determination and the West's unwavering support for them.
As for the last hypothesis, it is that the Ukrainian army, which has better morale, better training, and better quality equipment, can make a breakthrough at some point on the front, causing a new Russian collapse that leads to a general defeat that forces Moscow to search for a way out of the war.
For his part, Michel Goya, a military historian and former colonel in the French Navy, after raising the possibility of a Russian collapse in southern Ukraine and moving the battle to Crimea, does not see that any party is able to impose a complete victory, and therefore the most likely hypothesis in his opinion is the continuation of the situation. the present situation for a very long time, after which the political transition can either relaunch war or seek peace.
Political collapse in Russia
As for Anna Colin Lebedev, a lecturer in political science and a specialist in the post-Soviet space, she believes that the possibility of political collapse in Russia, although it does not enjoy a great deal of consensus, should not be ruled out, due to Russia's economic isolation, and the lack of employment as a result of the mobilization and flight of a part. Of the eligible population, though it depends on how Russian citizens view this war because the sacrifice will be as great as the threat.
big war
For his part, Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenet, a researcher at the French Institute of Geopolitics and a member of the "Thomas Moore" Institute, believes that the Russians are aiming beyond Donbass, and that they are gathering the necessary human, economic and industrial means to invade the entire region, and their goal is still to wipe Ukraine off the map, especially Those who run Russia are veterans of the Cold War, and they want to reshape the geographic group that made up the Soviet Union, destroy what they call the hegemony of the "collective West" and tilt the global center of gravity towards Eurasia, around a new Sino-Russian axis.
In addition, a Ukrainian counterattack is looming on the horizon, with the arrival of heavy and light armor, new anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems, and long-range missiles, especially as the Western powers are reconsidering Russia's red lines, and after they feared that the delivery of weapons would lead to a nuclear conflict, they now see that it They still have a lot of wiggle room.
A stalemate and a permanent exchange of artillery fire
As for Jean-Claude Allar, the former commander of the Kosovo Force and a researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations, he does not see that the Russians have the intention and means to try to seize Kiev again, but rather their concern will be to complete the invasion of Donbass, and then seek after that to keep their positions, and the Ukrainians have no interest. In defending every square meter of their territory at any cost, but regaining the initiative thanks to Western aid they might threaten Crimea, then Russia would take all necessary measures to drown any attack under a flood of fire.
He concluded that the most likely hypothesis, in his opinion, is a stalemate in the conflict along the fortified line, without the guns being silenced. Rather, it will be a positional war with a permanent exchange of artillery.