[Explanation] On February 24th, the first anniversary of the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis.
As Russia and Ukraine are mired in the quagmire of war, and the US and the West continue to increase military aid, what will happen to the Ukraine crisis?
What uncertainties and challenges will the spillover effects of this crisis bring to the global and regional situation?
A few days ago, a reporter from China News Agency interviewed a number of experts for research, judgment and interpretation.
Experts said that as a major geopolitical conflict, the Ukrainian crisis has deeply affected the international market since its outbreak one year ago, and some developing countries have also been affected.
[Concurrent] Cui Hongjian, Director of the Institute of European Studies, China Institute of International Studies
The international market is highly sensitive to major geopolitical conflicts like the Ukraine crisis, and it will affect the direction of capital and industries.
For example, food, finance, energy and so on.
We know that both Russia and Ukraine are major food producers in the world, and (the conflict) has had a very large negative impact on the world's food security, especially for those countries that have hidden dangers in their food security and relatively weak financial capacity developing countries.
[Explanation] In the year since the crisis broke out, the EU has imposed nine rounds of sanctions on the Russian Communist Party.
Cui Hongjian, an expert on international issues, believes that not only did the sanctions fail to force Russia to make compromises, Europe itself was also affected by the backlash from the sanctions.
[Concurrent] Cui Hongjian, Director of the Institute of European Studies, China Institute of International Studies
Although Russia has indeed experienced some instability in the financial market in the early stage, in fact, on the European side, instead of achieving the goal of financial sanctions, it caused its own problems due to its energy sanctions against Russia in the later period. Inflation has risen sharply, and it has also caused chaos in prices in energy markets within Europe.
(Although) last year, Europe still avoided the situation of "not being able to survive the winter", but it does not mean that the current energy crisis in Europe has been completely resolved.
At present, some European countries are still facing relatively serious internal economic structural problems, and these factors will superimpose each other.
So now it seems that the economic situation in Europe as a whole this year is expected to be even worse than last year.
[Explanation] After the Ukrainian crisis broke out, the United States and the West provided Ukraine with a large amount of weapons and equipment, and the military and economic aid totaled more than 100 billion U.S. dollars. On the first anniversary of the Ukrainian crisis, U.S. President Biden paid a surprise visit to Ukraine and announced the provision of 5 billion U.S. dollars in aid, which sent a strong "demonstration" signal to the Western world.
[Concurrent] Professor Zhou Yongsheng, Institute of International Relations, China Foreign Affairs University
There has been a shortage of ammunition depots in various countries to support Ukraine itself.
Each country has its own policy towards Russia, and not all countries are willing to provide large-scale support to Ukraine.
Biden wants to encourage other countries to further increase their support to Ukraine through his visit to Ukraine at such an opportunity.
I think that the current support will not be weakened, but in order for NATO countries and European countries to increase their support to Ukraine, it depends on the changes in the entire Russia-Ukraine war.
[Concurrent] Cui Hongjian, Director of the Institute of European Studies, China Institute of International Studies
Over the past period of time, Ukraine’s demand for Western weapons assistance has been on the rise, especially the request for fighter jets, but (this time the United States) did not give Ukraine the fighter jets it wanted. In fact, this shows that the United States is now Such a speculative mentality, on the one hand, it hopes to use Ukraine to achieve its strategic goals towards Russia, but at the same time, it must try its best to avoid undermining the overall intention of the United States due to some uncertain factors. For the United States, it still hopes to put The Ukrainian crisis is controlled within the scope of a local conflict. In fact, it currently does not have enough will and ability to completely tear itself apart with Russia, or even fight.
[Explanation] At present, the war between Russia and Ukraine is still stalemate, and the peace talks have been temporarily shelved.
Ukraine is still seeking greater support from all parties. Putin also stated that Russia has not changed its policy goals when delivering the State of the Nation Address a few days ago.
[Concurrent] Cui Hongjian, Director of the Institute of European Studies, China Institute of International Studies
With the changes in the war, Uzbekistan is actually constantly adjusting its negotiating goals. Although the Russian side recently released that it can conduct unconditional negotiations, the latter sentence is very important, that is, to advise Uzbekistan to be based on reality. In fact, it shows that Russia has not changed its position.
As the background of the (Ukrainian crisis), not only is the U.S.-Russian relationship almost in a state of interruption in all aspects, but NATO is still expanding. It should be said that from these two aspects, it is really pushing the two sides to carry out realistic cooperation. The basis for negotiations has not been strengthened.
[Explanation] Experts believe that the international community should not only urge Russia and Ukraine to solve the problem through negotiations, but also require NATO and Western countries to take reasonable control over the escalating military aid.
[Concurrent] Professor Zhou Yongsheng, Institute of International Relations, China Foreign Affairs University
China is promoting peace and talks, and hopes that the two sides can resolve it through peaceful negotiations, so the most important thing is how to implement it.
[Concurrent] Cui Hongjian, Director of the Institute of European Studies, China Institute of International Studies
War or military or violent means cannot be abused. I think it is time for all parties, especially major countries, to sit down and think calmly, and truly proceed from their own responsibilities and the common interests of the international community to find a way to achieve coexistence in the future. But No confrontation, competition, but no conflict, such a correct way out.
Li Jiali and Dong Zeyu report from Beijing
Responsible editor: [He Sanli]