China News Service, February 24 (Reporter Meng Xiangjun) On February 24, 2022, the Russian army entered Ukraine, and the country entered a wartime state.
Passing knives, firing, fueling, confrontation, seesaw, mediation... With the help of the United States and NATO countries, a shocking wound was torn in the center of the European continent.
One year has passed, and looking back at the largest geopolitical game since the 21st century, the stalemate has not been resolved and the intensity is still escalating.
Some critical moments together constitute an important factor in promoting the development of the situation.
Critical moment - the day before the crisis
On February 23, 2022, Russia's "Defender of the Fatherland Day", Putin routinely laid a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier next to the Kremlin to commemorate the soldiers who died during the Soviet Union.
Every this festival, Putin will give a speech.
At that time, he pointed out that Russia's call for the establishment of an equal and indivisible security system has not been responded to.
Ensuring national defense capabilities is Russia's most important task.
On the same day, the Russian Federation Council approved Putin's request to use Russian armed forces abroad.
Early the next morning, Putin announced to the world that he had entered Donbass.
Putin took the initiative to seek to build the framework of the security system he wanted, but this is not what the United States and Ukraine want.
On the 23rd, when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced sanctions against 351 Russians, U.S. President Joe Biden also announced sanctions on the Russian banking industry, and the curtain of "sanctions of the century" kicked off.
The Evolution of the Second Sanctions War at a Crucial Moment
One of the first "weapons" of the United States and the West is to exclude Russia from the payment system of the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), freeze the overseas assets of Russian companies, and list high-level Russian officials, rich people, and oligarchs as targets of sanctions.
From high-tech, luxury goods to aerospace, art, culture, and sports, the United States and the West swung the big stick of sanctions to the limit this year, imposing more than 15,000 sanctions on Russia, making it a history - becoming the world's sanctioned most countries.
On the eve of the first anniversary of the crisis, the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) adopted the initiative of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to impose sanctions on all Russian banks and financial institutions for a period of 50 years.
However, will this make it "injurious"?
In fact, Russia has been subject to Western sanctions for a long time since 2014, and has the ability to resist pressure and counter sanctions.
In addition to developing a local version of the financial information transmission system SPFS, Russia also pulled out a list of "unfriendly countries and regions", imposed "mirror-image sanctions" on Europe and the United States, and used ruble settlement orders and foreign exchange controls to pull back the situation.
The determination of the battle of the three besieged cities at the critical moment
Perhaps, no amount of sanctions will change the Russian military's will to continue to act.
For example, the Russian army's arduous siege of Mariupol, targeting the strategically important place that can connect Crimea and Donbass, left a deep impression on the outside world.
The "Azov Battalion" of the Ukrainian National Guard uses the Azov Iron and Steel Plant, which has a complex structure and strong defenses, as its base camp.
In order to capture the Ukrainian army, the Russian army changed its invasion into a blockade. Putin once ordered "not even a fly can fly out."
The reason for conquering this "steel fortress" is closely related to Putin's strategic goals.
"Azov Battalion" is considered to be inextricably linked to "Neo-Nazism".
Elimination of its main force means that Russia's desire to "denazize" has been realized to a certain extent.
Foreign media such as Reuters believe that the battle of Mariupol marked a major defeat for the Uzbek side this year.
Critical moment 4: From blitzkrieg to war of attrition
However, the goddess of victory did not always patronize the Russian army.
In the past year, the fall of the cruiser "Moscow" of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the explosion of the Crimea Bridge, and the missiles flying into Russia were all considered to be a setback to the morale of the Russian army.
Russia, which once thought it could force Ukraine to sit on the negotiating table with a "lightning offensive", now has to realize that shells and tanks from the United States and the West are being shipped to the battlefield, and the crisis has no end in sight.
Just like the tug-of-war between Russia and Ukraine over the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, although both sides know how dangerous it is to "play with fire" next to the nuclear reactor, this war of attrition can only continue.
Mitrokhin, a historian at the University of Bremen in Germany, pointed out to Qatar Al Jazeera that perhaps Russia and Ukraine do not have enough weapons, ammunition and soldiers to achieve their respective goals-Ukraine cannot return to the situation before Crimea entered Russia in 2014. borders, and Russia cannot control the entire Donbass.
Critical Moment 5 Negotiations Come to a Dead End
On the eve of the first anniversary of the escalation of the crisis, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated that Russia is ready to "achieve the goals of special military operations through political and diplomatic means."
Galuzin believes that the prerequisite for negotiations is that the West and Ukraine "put down their arms and stop attacking Russian cities."
In the past year, the Russia-Ukraine negotiations have been held intensively, followed by Turkey's mediation and good offices, and then to each talking their own way and reaching a dead end. According to Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova, the main responsibility lies with Ukraine.
She said that the Ukrainian government enacted legislation in September 2022 to prohibit negotiations with Russia because it was manipulated by the United States.
Putin previously emphasized that Russia has never rejected any form of peace talks, and the key lies in Ukraine.
Uzbekistan President Zelenskiy proposed multiple versions of negotiation conditions, such as five conditions for restarting negotiations, a 10-point "peace plan", and "three steps" to accelerate the realization of peace.
However, its core appeal has always revolved around the complete withdrawal of Russia's troops and the restoration of Ukrainian territory before 2014.
In this regard, Russian President's Press Secretary Peskov emphasized that if the "new realities" of the Ukrainian situation such as "four places entering Russia" are not considered, it is impossible to make progress in achieving peace.
Critical Moment Six Proxy War and Nuclear Deterrence
The fact is that in the past year, from helmets to armored vehicles and self-propelled artillery, the US and the West have escalated their military aid to Ukraine.
NATO also provides personnel training and intelligence support to the Ukrainian military.
Up to now, the total amount of military aid from Western countries to Ukraine may have reached the level of 100 billion U.S. dollars.
Among them, since the Biden administration came to power, the United States has pledged US$30.4 billion in military aid to Ukraine.
Just before the first anniversary of the outbreak of the crisis, Biden made a surprise visit to Kiev, shook hands and hugged Zelensky, and supported Ukraine to continue its confrontation with Russia.
Some foreign media bluntly pointed out that this is a "proxy war" launched by Western countries led by the United States, with the intention of using Ukraine as a geopolitical bet to consume Russia.
This approach naturally aroused Russia's anger.
While Biden was in Poland, Putin announced in Russia that Russia would suspend the implementation of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.
You must know that this treaty is the only arms control treaty between Russia and the United States, and if it loses its constraints, the consequences will be disastrous.
At the same time, Putin frequently released signals, instructing the strengthening of the "nuclear trinity" force, announcing that the new "Sarmat" intercontinental missile system will be put on combat duty, etc., all of which made the United States taste good.
After all, the United States cannot easily break the balance of nuclear deterrence at present.
At a critical
It has to be pointed out that while the United States is launching a war of attrition against Russia, it also has other strategic intentions.
For example, take the opportunity to strengthen military deployment in Eastern Europe, the three Baltic countries and other areas surrounding Russia; win over allies to "show unity" and "activate" NATO, which was once described by French President Macron as "brain dead".
In the past year, NATO has been very busy. There is not much room for its expansion in Europe, and its tentacles are gradually extending to the Asia-Pacific.
However, it is still his heart to absorb Sweden and Finland from Northern Europe into the contract.
After the launch of Russia's special military operation, Sweden and Finland became more and more worried, and finally decided to fall back to NATO.
However, joining NATO requires the unanimous consent of all member states.
During this period, there appeared two "blockers" - Turkey and Hungary.
In particular, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hinted that Finland could be approved to join NATO, but not Sweden.
He accused Sweden of sheltering Kurdish forces opposed to the Turkish government and allowed demonstrators to burn the Koran in front of the Turkish embassy.
Therefore, Finland and Sweden may not be able to "hand in hand" and be approved to join NATO together.
However, both countries have submitted applications, and NATO's road to expansion is still a step forward.
Critical Moment Eight "Beixi" and the Energy Crisis
In the past year, the "Beixi-1" and "Beixi-2" pipelines, the main gas transmission arteries between Europe and Russia, suffered heavy losses and fell into silence following the Western energy sanctions against Russia and the explosion and leakage in September 2022.
Investigations by Germany, Denmark and Sweden concluded that the pipeline may have been sabotaged.
A revelation by the senior American investigative reporter Seymour Hersh brought the incident to a climax.
He believes that the White House is the mastermind behind the Nord Stream pipeline bombing, and its purpose is to prevent Germany and other European countries from establishing close ties with Russia through energy trade.
Doing so can not only force Europe to cut off its energy dependence on Russia, but also push Europe to continue its confrontation with Russia.
In Europe, which has lost low-cost energy, natural gas and oil prices have soared many times. The United States took the opportunity to make money and sold natural gas to Europe at 3 to 4 times the price.
This move was criticized by Macron, who believed that the United States had done "what a true friend should not do."
In short, who is the biggest beneficiary of the "North Stream" pipeline explosion?
The answer is clear at a glance.
The Black Sea Journey of Nine Grain Ships at a Critical Moment
In addition to energy issues, the food crisis has gradually become prominent.
Nearly 70% of Ukraine's land area is black land. It has innate high-quality resources. From 2019 to 2020, it ranked second in the world in terms of grain exports. It is a veritable "European granary".
However, after the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, Ukrainian grain planting has been affected, and the area sown in spring in 2022 will be more than half that of the previous year.
Russia, also a major exporter of wheat and corn, was also affected.
In addition, the port of Uzbekistan was once paralyzed, channels blocked, and logistics interrupted.
Coupled with a series of chain reactions such as rising international transportation costs and high grain and fertilizer prices, the food crisis broke out.
Although under the mediation of Turkey in July, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations signed the "Black Sea Food Agreement" and resumed some grain shipments, the spillover impact of the crisis is still fermenting.
Statistics from the United Nations Development Program show that rising food and energy prices have pushed 71 million people around the world into poverty, with countries in the Balkans and sub-Saharan Africa hardest hit.
At the critical moment, when will the people stay away from suffering?
Under the crisis, multiple problems such as energy, food, and supply chains superimposed the new crown epidemic, pushing up inflation and putting Europe on the brink of recession.
As the severe winter approaches, ordinary people in Europe have to choose between keeping warm and eating.
People can't afford gas and electricity bills, so they can only use firewood, the "oldest fuel" for heating, or wear more clothes, and some people can't even use microwave ovens or kettles.
This unbearable winter has brought enormous pressure on people's lives, and the millions of refugees fleeing Ukraine have also put European countries under enormous economic and social pressure.
As described by The Washington Post, the fog of war, conflict over ideologies and even historical legacies still hangs over Ukraine.
(over)