A year of war in Ukraine: has the conflict reshuffled the cards in the European Union?

Yanis Darras 06:00 a.m., February 24, 2023

365 days, thousands of deaths and a bruised country.

Almost a year after the launch of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, to "demilitarize and denazify the country" as Vladimir Putin said during his television speech on February 24, 2022, Russian and Ukrainian soldiers are engaged a merciless battle. 

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If this military operation was to be rapid, the conflict was prolonged in the face of the Ukrainian resistance, supported by the aid of the West and in particular of the countries of the European Union.

Despite their significant energy dependence on Russia, the 27 have shown their unity in the face of Russian aggression against Ukraine. 

Oil, coal, media... Nine sets of sanctions have been adopted by the EU against the Mother Party, in an attempt to weaken the Kremlin.

Sanctions which also have consequences for the European economy.

However, the European Union has never seemed so united.

A center of gravity shifted to the East

"I think the European Union, with the possible exception of Hungary, is united on the fact that Vladimir Putin's responsibility in this war is enormous and therefore what is important is today to ensure that Ukraine is not beaten militarily by Russia", explains Christian Lequesne, professor at Sciences Po Paris.

A strategy assumed by the 27, faced with a conflict that upsets relations between them.

To the point of reshuffling the cards? 

Largely absent from the news in normal times, the countries of Eastern Europe and the Baltic countries have distinguished themselves in recent months by their determination to support the Ukrainians, and to stand firm against the Russian state.

"There is a kind of shift in the center of gravity towards these countries", notes the author of 

published by Les Presses de Sciences Po.  

"Firstly, these countries have a particular legitimacy to say: 'German and French states, we have always told you that Russia with Putin at its head was aggressive, and you did not want to believe us'. And secondly, these countries are also exposed to the conflict, in particular by welcoming thousands of Ukrainians" on their soil, he continues.

Because, among the eight million Ukrainians who have left their country since the beginning of the conflict, nearly 1.5 million of them are currently in Poland, indicated the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees on 15 last February. 

A Hungary against the tide

But one country stands out in particular: Hungary.

Viktor Orban, very critical of Brussels before the start of the conflict, now denounces a Europe "already at indirect war with Russia".

The Hungarian Prime Minister, who has condemned the Russian aggression with lip service, does not hesitate to question the sanctions taken by the Union, accusing them of accelerating inflation in Hungary.

"Brussels, use sanctions as a political weapon to target Russia. But it's Europe they're hurting," he said, as his country faces 25% inflation . 

However, "Viktor Orban basically shares with Putin, a criticism of the values ​​of Europe", explains Christian Lequesne.

"A Europe that is too liberal in economic terms, too liberal in morals or society," he continues.

"And since Viktor Orban is a great defender of the authoritarian model, he thinks that Putin is a great leader. (...) He therefore decided that it was necessary to clear" the President of the Russian Federation, adds the teacher . 

And in the West? 

On the other hand, the Franco-German couple maintains its will to sanction Russia and to help kyiv to fight against the Russian invasion.

However, "there is a delegitimization" of France and Germany with this conflict, notes the professor at Sciences Po Paris.

"These two countries believed in dialogue with Putin. And today, we realize that it is a dead end. (...) And, for Central Europeans, Swedes, Balts... Those who had a rather firm speech saying 'We cannot negotiate with this leader because we cannot trust him', they are the ones who are right today. However, that does not include Germany, nor the France," he concludes. 

This is enough to weaken confidence in the first two nations of the Union, singled out either for their energy dependence (Germany) on Russia, or for their comments on NATO in recent years.

A reference to Emmanuel Macron, who declared at the end of 2021, that the organization of the North Atlantic Treaty (NATO) in "state of brain death".

Less than a year later, Sweden and Finland will apply to join the alliance in the face of the Russian threat.