Concerns to the public: how the situation with the allocation of US military assistance to Ukraine can change

Kiev fears that Washington may reduce the amount of military assistance allocated to Ukraine in order to get it to conclude an agreement with Russia, Politico writes, citing sources in the administration of Vladimir Zelensky.

“I think that both in Congress and in the administration (of the President of the United States. -

) there are people who want to adjust the amount of security assistance in order, I’m afraid, to encourage Ukrainians to make some kind of deal,” one of the advisers to the President of Ukraine, who wished to remain anonymous.

As the newspaper notes, Kiev also fears that the White House may try to convince Ukraine to set "more modest" goals in the current conflict.

As a pretext for this, the White House allegedly can use the loss of control over the House of Representatives, in which the Republicans are now the majority party.

In addition, Politico sources in the Ukrainian government confirmed reports that in January, CIA director William Burns urged Volodymyr Zelensky to “make as much progress as possible on the battlefield as soon as possible” as military support could begin to decline.

Other circumstances 

Recall that even before the US congressional elections in November 2022, representatives of the Republican Party stated that they intended, if not significantly reduce, then establish stricter control over the funds that the Biden administration sends to Ukraine.

For example, Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Green, who previously called for a complete end to aid to Ukraine, said that Republicans had submitted a bill to audit military aid to Kyiv.

In turn, the speaker of the lower house, Kevin McCarthy, warned that the Republicans in the current congress would not allow Washington to provide unlimited and unjustified financial assistance to Ukraine.

• Joe Biden's speech to the US Congress

• AFP

• © CHIP SOMODEVILLA / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA

However, President Joe Biden, during his recent visit to Kiev, said that, despite differences, the two parties allegedly stand in solidarity on the need to continue to provide assistance to Ukraine.

He promised that the United States would continue to support the Zelensky regime and announced new arms deliveries worth $500 million. The aid package will include artillery shells for HIMARS systems, howitzers, Javelin complexes, anti-tank shells, and radar equipment.

At the same time, the Biden administration believes that the volume and frequency of assistance packages allocated to Kyiv will still change.

This was reported to The Washington Post by a senior White House official, who noted that Washington is trying to convey to the Ukrainian authorities that the volume of assistance allocated in 2022 was possible only with the full control of the US Democratic Party of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

“We will continue to try to convey to them that we cannot do everything and everything forever,” a senior Biden administration official said, speaking of the Ukrainian leadership.

Also, the White House is unhappy with the way Kyiv is fighting, WP sources say.

While Washington considers the new regions of the Russian Federation on the coast of the Azov and Black Seas to be more important, Kyiv “expends a significant amount of resources and manpower” to hold Artyomovsk (Bakhmut), the sources of the publication complain.

"U.S. military analysts and planners argue that simultaneously defending Bakhmut and launching a spring counteroffensive to take territory that the United States considers more important is an unrealistic task," writes The Washington Post.

In addition, the White House believes that the military campaign to "liberate" the Crimean peninsula, which is announced in Kyiv, is currently beyond the strength of Ukrainian troops, the newspaper notes.

This “disparity between goals and capabilities” of the Kiev regime is worrisome in Europe, where they believe that the conflict in Ukraine will place an undue burden on the shoulders of Western countries as they try to cope with other problems, including high inflation and volatile energy prices.

“A very difficult period begins”

Reports of a potential change in American military assistance - in one direction or another - are steadily appearing in the Western media against the backdrop of changes in the combat operational situation "on the ground," said Alexei Podberyozkin, director of the Center for Military-Political Studies.

According to him, now the Armed Forces of Ukraine are in a difficult situation, so the Zelensky administration is sending signals through the media about its concern about the future of military assistance.

“A very difficult period begins for the Ukrainian armed forces and Kyiv.

In Europe and the United States, it is believed that in the next six to seven weeks (until the end of March) there is a possibility that the Armed Forces of Ukraine may be defeated.

The fact that they refuse to recognize this in Kyiv says that it is more important for the leaders of this regime not to win, but to prolong military operations at any cost, ”the expert said in a comment to RT.

• Joe Biden and Vladimir Zelensky

• AP

• © Evan Vucci

He explained that the United States is particularly concerned about such a scenario, since for Washington the defeat of Kyiv would mean a repeat of the geopolitical fiasco by analogy with the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

“At the same time, Ukraine is afraid that the current pause, when military equipment is already running out and there is nothing to fight with, professional personnel have been knocked out and the combat capability of the Ukrainian army is rapidly losing, will lead to its collapse.

This pause may drag on for several months, as a result of which the regime may collapse due to the inability of the armed forces to resist, ”the political scientist believes.

According to him, this is why Washington is now unlikely to significantly reduce the volume of military assistance to Kyiv.

“The scenario of using the loss of advantage in Congress to reduce aid to Kyiv is quite real, but is unlikely to be used at this stage.

As long as Ukraine continues to fight and waste Russia's economic resources and human potential, this situation remains convenient for Biden.

The United States will not refuse this profitable scheme and will continue to help Ukraine as long as it is at war with Russia, ”the analyst said.

In turn, Alexei Mukhin, Director General of the Center for Political Information, noted that the "consumption" of a large number of American weapons in Ukraine provides orders for the US military-industrial complex, which heals the country's economy and plays into the hands of the Biden administration.

“Washington announces unprecedented assistance to Ukraine, while the allocated funds go to American military-industrial complex companies for the production and purchase of weapons, as well as to intermediaries serving them - various banks and funds.

Now we are talking about supporting the US economy through new military contracts, so there are no reasons for a sharp reduction in the volume of military assistance for Ukraine even with a Republican Congress, ”the expert concluded.