The United States, Europe, and Japan have imposed severe economic sanctions one after another against Russia, which has embarked on a military invasion of Ukraine.
As the Putin administration becomes nervous about the rising domestic backlash and strengthens its repression, how do citizens perceive it, and is there an impact on their lives?
In addition, I summarized how countries other than Europe, the United States, and Japan are facing Russia.
Putin administration strengthens information control, etc.
Since Russia's Putin administration launched a military invasion, it has become nervous about growing domestic opposition, and has further strengthened repression such as information control.
In March 2022, shortly after the invasion began, the Putin administration enacted a revised law that strengthened information controls, spreading false information about the activities of the Russian military and calling for actions that would discredit the military, officials said. If found, severe punishment will be imposed.
Under this law, politicians and journalists have been sentenced to prison for ``spreading false information and losing confidence in the military''.
According to a Russian human rights group, about 20,000 people have been detained so far for protesting the military invasion and the mobilization of reserves.
In December last year, the Putin administration enacted a new law that expands the scope of the designation of "foreign agents", which means foreign spies, to individuals and groups deemed "under foreign influence" by the authorities. was also targeted.
In line with this, the FSB (Federal Security Service), a security agency, issued an order prohibiting the provision of information on the mobilization of reserve forces and inside information about the military to third parties, It is perceived as a move to control information that is inconvenient for the administration, such as the poor environment that was obtained.
According to the Russian Ministry of Justice, a total of 552 individuals and organizations were designated as "foreign agents" from 2013 to February 17, and in the one year from February last year alone, nearly 40% of the total numbered 216. increase.
Recently,
Zemfira, a popular singer among young people who continues to sing anti-war songs criticizing military aggression, and an
activist working to protect the human rights of sexual minorities have been designated as "foreign agents." , there is a sense of blockage in a society that eliminates diversity.
The Putin regime has also stepped up its crackdown on domestic human rights groups.
▽ "Memorial", which won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2022, was ordered to seize the office this month following the dissolution order in 2021, and was forced to close.
In January, the court ordered the dissolution of the Moscow Helsinki Group, a human rights group that was founded by Dr. Sakharov, a Nobel Peace Prize winner in 1976, and is said to be the oldest in Russia.
Gudkov, a sociologist who has been critical of the Putin administration, told NHK, ``The regime is threatening people to lose their right to express their opinions, while continuing to oppress the people and society. The regime is not just becoming authoritarian, it is becoming authoritarian.”
A patriotic atmosphere spreads in the survey that 75% "support"
Since the Putin administration of Russia began its military invasion, it has increased pressure to control information and suppress anti-war voices. increase.
According to the results of a survey released by the Levada Center, a Russian independent pollster, on the 2nd of this month, both "clearly support" and "somewhat support" Russia's military operations in Ukraine. 75% of respondents answered that they “clearly do not support” or “somewhat do not support” combined, far exceeding 19%.
Inside Russia, posters praising Russian soldiers who are said to be fighting on the front lines as heroes have been put up on main streets, and stickers with the "Z" mark, which has become a symbol of support for military aggression, have been put up. Buses and cars are also running, and the administration is making efforts to appeal to the patriotism of the people, saying that the invasion of Ukraine is now a battle to defend the homeland.
In addition, activities to support military soldiers are becoming active in various parts of Russia.
Of these, in Sakhalin Province in the Far East of Russia, a rally was held on the 18th of this month to support the Russian army, organized by the state government and veterans' groups.
Among them, about 1,200 vehicles bearing the "Z" mark and the Russian flag ran in a line about 40 kilometers of road, calling for support for the military invasion.
A 56-year-old participant said: "It's important for the soldiers who are defending our interests in Ukraine to know that we are with them and we really support them. So many people are here. Yes, all Russians are united."
In addition, in Vladivostok, the central city of the Far East, an organization made up of the wives of military personnel held an event on the 14th of this month to send relief supplies to front-line units.
It means that boxes containing food and clothing collected not only by individuals but also by schools and workplaces will be transported one after another and delivered to the site by truck.
A woman who participated said, "I made 40 kilograms worth of candles with the children. Lighting is necessary in the Zangou."
She says that the children's center where this woman works also has children write letters of encouragement to the soldiers.
A pensioner also said, "We all know that if we were to withdraw, it would mean disaster. If that happens, all the effort and money we have spent so far will be wasted. There is only progress." It is," he said, emphasizing the need for national solidarity so that the Russian army can fight through to victory.
Citizens Support Military Invasion, but Call for Ceasefire
In Russia, public opinion polls show that many citizens still support what President Putin calls a "special military operation," but there are also calls for a ceasefire due to concerns about the future. .
in Moscow
A 70-year-old woman living in the capital Moscow said she supports President Putin, but said of the military invasion, ``I don't think it will end soon. ' and criticized the military support to Ukraine by Western countries.
The woman said her current life was "not bad at the moment. The economy is recovering little by little," and said the impact of her sanctions on civil life would be limited.
She also said that while the female office worker supports the military invasion, she is worried about the safety of her acquaintances who were mobilized. I was.
A 25-year-old office worker said he would not give a clear answer on whether he would support a military invasion, but said: "I hope this situation ends as soon as possible. Ultimately, it's bad for both Russia and Ukraine." I was talking.
In addition, a 30-year-old woman who works in education said, "It has become difficult to work." He pointed out that activities to raise children's patriotism are spreading.
She went on to say that she "hopes that all military operations will be finished with some prospect or that losses on all fronts will be minimized."
in Vladivostok, Far East
In the military invasion, many young people are sent to the battlefields from local cities far away from Ukraine, such as the Far East and Siberia.
A 53-year-old man living in Vladivostok, the capital city of Russia's Far East, said he supports a "special military operation" and said, "Western countries are pouring a lot of money and equipment into Ukraine. This is a political war. They just want to make Russia look like an aggressor," he criticized the Western countries.
On the other hand, a friend of mine, who has volunteered to serve on the front lines, told me, "In the field, not everything is going as smoothly as the state television says. Of course, war is not easy. '' and had a complicated expression.
A man in his 30s working at a factory said, "My acquaintance also died. This is strange."
Then, because Western and Japanese companies have suspended their business in Russia, the factory where I work has a delay in the supply of necessary materials, and says, "All aspects have been affected. Work has been affected. It has had a negative impact on the economy and morally," he said.
And a man in his 40s who works for a state-owned company said, "Everyone feels uneasy about the future. We can't make plans and the situation is constantly changing, so we don't feel stable."
Is the impact on living limited?
In the past year since Russia began invading Ukraine, the West has imposed severe sanctions on Russia, and in some cases companies operating in Russia have withdrawn.
However, the impact on the lives of citizens is expected to be limited.
McDonald's, a major American hamburger chain, and Starbucks, a major coffee chain, have withdrawn from Russia.
Both were popular with the locals, but a new Russian-owned restaurant, which was pointed out to have a similar logo and menu, opened in the place where the restaurant had been, and was bustling with many customers.
On the boulevards of the capital Moscow, where shoppers and tourists come and go, the lights of popular Western and Japanese fashion brand stores remain dimmed, and there is no prospect of reopening.
On the other hand, in the city, Russian brand stores are appealing to "buy domestic products", and the number of stores handling cosmetics from Belarus, an allied country, is increasing.
A university student living in Moscow, the capital, said that although it has become difficult to obtain clothes and cosmetics from Western brands that she used to like, she still buys similar products made in Belarus. But I can endure it," he said.
In addition, there is no shortage of items at the grocery stores that support the lives of citizens.
On the shelves where drinks were placed, there were many products such as major American beverage manufacturers who announced that they would withdraw all business immediately after the invasion began.
Although these products are no longer produced in Russia, they are imported from neighboring countries such as Kazakhstan and Belarus, and are still sold at prices that do not change much.
It is said that it is becoming difficult to purchase some imported products, but there are still many similar products, and the manager of the grocery store said, "In principle, there is no change in the product lineup."
A 26-year-old male office worker who visited the shop said, "I don't think the sanctions will have any impact on me when I see this store. I don't feel it," he said.
Also, a 46-year-old man said, "Some things have gone up in price or gone from stores, but the situation hasn't gotten worse. I won't starve."
Sanctions bring big changes to the auto industry
The automotive industry is undergoing major changes in Russia.
In December last year, Russian state news agency TASS reported, quoting an expert on the automobile industry, that the Russian automobile market had undergone a major turning point over the past year.
According to the private research company Avtostat, the share of European manufacturers in the Russian automobile market was about 28% in January and February last year, but about 8% in November and December4. It means that it has decreased to about 1/10.
In the same way, the number of Japanese manufacturers has decreased from about 18% to about 7%, which is one-third.
On the other hand, the share of Russian domestic cars has doubled from 20% to 42%, and the share of Chinese automakers has tripled from 10% to 30%.
The Chinese automaker Chery Automobile has about 120 dealerships in Russia, and in 2020, it opened in Vladivostok, the central city of the Far East.
On holidays, customers came from the morning without a break, and sales representative Alexander Pavlyuk said, "Every day, every month, the awareness of Chinese cars is increasing, and the future prospects are very good. Japanese and Western brands have left, and now , It has become a place of great leap for Chinese cars."
A female office worker in her 40s who has purchased multiple Japanese cars so far purchased a Chery Motors SUV = multi-purpose sports type car for the first time on this day.
The woman said, ``Considering what is happening in this country right now, even if you buy a Japanese car, it will be difficult to repair the car, find the necessary parts, and there is no guarantee that it will be repaired immediately. We don't have to worry about cars," he said, emphasizing that trust in Chinese cars, which are deepening their ties with Russia, is increasing.
The number of companies withdrawing from Russia remains at about 8.5%
In January, a research team at a Swiss university and other institutions released the results of a survey showing that only about 8.5% of the total number of Western and Japanese companies withdrew from Russia after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Based on the company database, the survey was conducted on 1404 companies from the EU = European Union and G7 = 7 major countries that were doing business in Russia as of April last year.
Of these, it was found that 120 companies, or about 8.5% of the total, had sold at least one subsidiary by the end of November last year.
Looking at these 120 companies by country
, the largest number is 25% in the United States,
12.5% in Finland,
10.8% in the United Kingdom,
and 5.8% in Japan.
In addition, ▽Germany 19.5%,
▽USA 12.4%,
▽Japan 7% are
still doing business in Russia .
The research team says that companies that have withdrawn from Russia are characterized by lower profitability and more employees than companies that continue to operate in Russia.
On top of that, many companies that were operating in Russia have not yet completed the sale process or are continuing to operate.
Regarding the results of this survey, Advisor to the President of Ukraine Podryak pointed out on SNS on February 11 that taxes paid by companies doing business in Russia were used as war expenses for the invasion of Ukraine, and said, ``All businesses are in a war of aggression in Europe. It is enriching the pockets of Mr. Putin and his close aides, who are the ones responsible for this.The Western side should take a tough attitude."
Russian socio-economic expert "We will raise war expenses even if the situation worsens"
Regarding the economic situation in Russia, which has been subject to severe economic sanctions from Europe, the United States and Japan, local experts say that although the situation is worsening in a way that is difficult for the public to see, due to factors such as the drop in the price of crude oil, which accounts for a large part of the national budget, The Putin administration has shown the view that it will raise the war expenses to continue the military invasion.
In an interview with NHK on February 3, Natalia Zvarevich, a professor at Moscow State University who specializes in Russian socioeconomics, said, "The crisis that started last year is likely to continue this year. Slowly, but the fiscal deficit is certain. I predicted.
The biggest cause was the fall in the price of Russian crude oil due to the introduction of sanctions in Europe and the United States that set ceilings on the price of Russian crude oil and petroleum products.
Zvarevich said crude oil and natural gas revenues will account for 42% of total revenues in 2022. pointed out.
On the other hand, last year's fiscal expenditure was about 7 trillion rubles, or about 13 trillion yen more than the initial budget, and although there are no published statistics, he said, "The production of weapons is increasing," and most of it is armaments. I think it was allotted to
And this year's national budget includes defense-related expenses of more than 9 trillion rubles, or more than 16 trillion yen in Japanese yen, which is more than 30% of the total expenditure, and Russia unilaterally annexed Crimea in southern Ukraine. He pointed out that the increase would be the same as in 2014.
Regarding this, Mr. Zvarevich said that while maintaining subsidies for pensioners and other people who are the government's support base, "I will cut back on social policy-related funds such as education and health, and reduce infrastructure development projects such as roads." He expressed his view that after narrowing down fiscal expenditures, he would withdraw government funds and raise some corporate taxes to raise war expenses to continue the military invasion.
Regarding the impact of economic sanctions and the withdrawal and suspension of activities of foreign-affiliated companies, Mr. Zvarevich said, "There are problems, but there is no shortage of goods." I explained that phones and such are on the market and in stores.
However, he said, "Importing semiconductors has become extremely difficult. How can we replace equipment that cannot be imported? Most of them will be Chinese products, and we will try to procure the rest in Russia, but we cannot replace everything." I think there is a serious problem with
"It's getting worse so slowly that ordinary people don't realize it. People don't understand how serious the problems are really with Russian airlines. He expressed a sense of crisis that the situation is getting worse where it has not surfaced.
In addition, he pointed out that about 700,000 people left Russia in the past year due to the mobilization accompanying the military invasion, and pointed out that ``the development of the country is in danger due to the loss of human capital.'' .
However, Mr. Zvarevich predicted that the military invasion would not end by the end of the year and that the domestic economy would continue to deteriorate. No protests will occur. Sadly, people will continue to endure for a long time, ”he said, expressing a pessimistic view of the future.
Israel draws a line with the West and does not criticize Russia
How do countries deal with Russia over a military invasion of Ukraine?
Israel, which is a strong ally of the United States, has drawn a clear line from the West and has taken the position of not criticizing Russia's aggression.
In the background is the issue of national security.
Israel has accused Iranian-backed militias operating in neighboring Syria, and has repeatedly attacked their strongholds.
It is said that Russia, which is behind the Assad regime in Syria, has acquiesced to Israel's attacks.
This relationship between Israel and Russia continued even after Iran was found to be supplying drones to Russia, and the Israeli foreign minister made his first visit to Ukraine this month since the military aggression began. I had no complaints.
On the other hand, Israel has built good diplomatic relations with Ukraine, where many Jews live, and has been repeatedly requested by President Zelensky to provide weapons, but has refused to provide high-performance weapons.
Against this backdrop, President Zelensky called for Israel to provide air defense systems at a security conference held in Munich, Germany this month.
In Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu returned to power at the end of last year, but Prime Minister Netanyahu is said to have built a close relationship with President Putin, and the focus is on how he will respond to Russia in the future. It has become.
Cooperation in the economic field of rapidly approaching Iran
Also, in contrast to Europe and the United States, it is Iran that is rapidly approaching.
After being pointed out by the U.S., Europe and the Ukrainian government that Iran was providing Russia with the drones it is using to attack Ukraine, Iran admitted to providing the drones. It has previously claimed that it did not cooperate in the war in Ukraine.
However, he has indicated that he intends to continue military cooperation with Russia in the future, and there is growing concern that the West may co-produce drones in Russia and Iran may provide missiles. increase.
In addition, cooperation is progressing in the economic field.
A project that the governments of both countries are currently working on is a "North-South Transportation Corridor" that connects the huge markets of India and Russia via Iran.
This is a concept to establish distribution routes that make full use of ships, railroads, and trucks. Although it was proposed more than 20 years ago, it has not been implemented in practice due to factors such as the need for a large amount of infrastructure investment. He was not there.
However, after Russia invaded Ukraine and was subject to economic sanctions from Europe and the United States, Russia, along with Iran, which is also subject to sanctions, has begun to focus on creating a new economic zone that is immune to the effects of sanctions. I'm here.
In response to such rapprochement between the two countries, there has been a movement within Iran to sound alarm bells. It is questionable whether they are giving sufficient consideration to
"Neither" attention is "Global South"
【グローバル・サウスとは】。
欧米諸国とロシアの対立が続く中、どちらにもつかない立場をとる「グローバル・サウス」と呼ばれる国々が、今、注目を集めています。
アジア、アフリカ、それにラテンアメリカなどのこれらの新興国や途上国は、冷戦時代には「第三世界」と呼ばれましたが、近年、国際社会における存在感が増してきています。
【きっかけは軍事侵攻】。
去年3月2日の国連総会の緊急特別会合では、ロシアを非難し、軍の即時撤退などを求める決議案に35か国が棄権。軍事侵攻を支持しない一方、ロシアに対する経済制裁にも加わらない国々の存在が注目されました。
インドは「グローバル・サウス」サミット開催
【代表格の1つインドは】。
その代表的な国の1つインドは1月、グローバル・サウスの国々を対象にしたオンラインサミットを開催。モディ首相は、参加した125か国の首脳らに対し、燃料や肥料の価格高騰に直面する途上国の声を国際社会に反映させると訴えました。
「われわれはウクライナでの紛争などの影響をより強く受けている。世界の人口の4分の3を占めるグローバル・サウスは、人類の未来に最も大きな利害関係を有する」。
【“抜け穴”批判に反論】。
ロシアがウクライナへの軍事侵攻を始めて以降、インドは伝統的な友好国であるロシアからの原油の輸入量を大幅に増やしていて、一部のメディアからは、「制裁の抜け穴になっているのではないか」といった指摘も出ています。
【オーストリアのTV出演】。
こうした中、ジャイシャンカル外相は1月、オーストリアのテレビ番組で「侵攻以降、ヨーロッパはインドの6倍のエネルギーをロシアから輸入した。ロシアからの輸入が問題なら、ヨーロッパはなぜ輸入をやめなかったのか」と述べ、指摘はあたらないという見方を示しました。
また、途上国は経済的な余裕がなく、原油が安く手に入るのであれば、買うのは当然だとしたうえで、欧米とロシアのどちらの側にもつかない「グローバル・サウス」は、分断が進む世界の“パイプ役”になりうると、その存在意義を強調しています。
「二極化する世界で最も苦しんでいるのはグローバル・サウス。中間的な存在の国は、異なる立場の国々を話し合いのテーブルにつけることができる」
存在感示すアフリカの国々
【アフリカ、勢力争いの場に】。
一方、アフリカでは、欧米とロシア、中国との間の外交的なせめぎ合いが繰り広げられています。2022年12月、アメリカはアフリカ諸国の首脳をワシントンに招いて大規模な首脳会議を8年ぶりに開催。バイデン大統領がことしアフリカを訪問する考えを示すなど、アフリカ諸国との関係強化に力を入れています。
これに対して中国は1月、秦剛外相が就任後初めての外遊先としてアフリカを訪れたほか、ロシアのラブロフ外相も1月から今月にかけて相次いでアフリカを訪問しています。
アフリカは国連加盟国の3割近くを占めていて、国連での投票で存在感を示しています。また、電気自動車などの先端機器に必要な希少資源の産地もあり、戦略的な重要性も増しています。アフリカの国々の多くは、大国からの外交攻勢を自国の立場を強め、大国の協力と関与を引き出すチャンスになると捉えています。
たとえば、南アフリカは、2月17日から27日までの予定で、ロシア、中国の海軍を招き、合同軍事演習を行っています。南アフリカは、BRICS＝新興5か国の一員として、中国やロシアとの関係を重視しています。
また、現政権の幹部にはアパルトヘイト＝人種隔離政策の撤廃運動で当時のソビエトから支援を受けた経験を持つ人もいます。このため、欧米の圧力に屈せず、ロシアとの関係を維持することには政権内でも一定の支持があります。
一方で、南アフリカはウクライナ情勢については、あくまで中立の立場だと主張し、1月には、アメリカのイエレン財務長官の訪問を受け入れるなど、欧米との関係も維持しようとするしたたかさも見て取れます。
大国間の争いに巻き込まれるリスクも
[A big risk].
The countries of the global South are trying to take advantage of the confrontation between Europe, the United States, Russia, and China, so to speak.
However, such bargaining also carries the great risk of being embroiled in conflicts between major powers.
Many countries in Asia and Africa fell into quagmire civil wars during the Cold War, when the countries were divided due to the intervention of both the United States and the Soviet Union.
Dr. Leeza Janeberg, a researcher in South Africa who specializes in foreign policy and international relations of African countries, said, "It's a very dangerous game to choose in the middle of a conflict between great powers. During the Cold War. Just as it has become a place of proxy war between East and West in the past, it is possible that African countries will end up bearing a great loss this time as well."