Warsaw Initiative: why Poland proposes NATO to provide security guarantees to Ukraine

At the end of the current conflict in Ukraine, NATO should provide Kyiv with security guarantees, said Polish President Andrzej Duda.

Speaking to the Financial Times on the sidelines of a conference in Munich, he noted that such promises "would be important" for Ukraine and the morale of its military personnel, as they would emphasize "the feeling that NATO supports them."

According to Duda, although Ukraine is currently unable to join the North Atlantic Alliance, Kyiv expected "partnership" with the provision of "some kind of guarantees in terms of security."

“In Munich, U.S. and German officials downplayed the need for security guarantees at this stage, arguing that the military assistance provided to Ukraine is the guarantee that Kiev needs,” writes the FT.

The publication notes that security guarantees from NATO could look like a legally binding obligation of key countries of the alliance, such as the United States, Britain and France, to provide military assistance to Kiev in the event of possible future aggression.

Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen earlier compared these proposals to US guarantees for Israel's security.

Looking for guarantees

Recall that the Ukrainian authorities have repeatedly stated the need to obtain certain security guarantees.

At the same time, Kiev implies that these obligations will include the direct military participation of Western countries in repelling aggression against Ukraine.

So, at the end of April 2022, Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with the Polish media that guarantees should be based on the prompt provision of military personnel to Kyiv.

“I know for sure that we need security guarantees, and I know exactly what we need, and we want to ask for exactly what we need ... The most important thing is people and deadlines, deadlines and people, no matter how cynical sounded.

I believe that our security guarantees should be in the formula "people - hours," TASS quotes him as saying.

The head of the Kyiv regime compared such agreements with the 911 emergency service and noted that such a system does not create a counterbalance to NATO, since it is parallel and complements the overall efforts to ensure security in Europe.

• Meeting of the working group on security guarantees with the participation of the head of the office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak and former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, file photo

• © president.gov.ua

In September, the office of the President of Ukraine presented a draft of the so-called Kyiv security treaty, prepared with the participation of former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen.

It was assumed that the agreement should consist of a joint document on strategic partnership signed by the guarantor countries and Ukraine, as well as bilateral agreements between them.

It should be noted that the presented draft did not contain any mention of the country's future neutral status or Russia's participation as one of the security guarantors.

The document also argued that stability in the Euro-Atlantic region is closely linked to the security of Ukraine and that Kyiv should receive unique and effective security guarantees that should be built into the peace process to resolve the conflict.

The draft treaty should unite Kiev and a “major group of allies,” which could include the United States, Britain, Canada, Poland, Italy, Germany, France, Australia, Turkey, as well as the countries of Northern and Baltic, Central and Eastern Europe.

The document also provides that a broad group of international partners, including Japan and South Korea, should support "a set of non-military guarantees based on sanctions."

The package may also include "regional agreements on security in the Black Sea" with Turkey and other coastal countries.

The draft agreement states that future security guarantees for Ukraine should not become an element of an exchange for its neutral status.

Also, Kyiv is counting on investments from the allies in the country's military-industrial complex, the transfer of weapons and intelligence information.

In addition, future guarantees should include a "complete package of sanctions" against the "aggressor country."

At the same time, the guarantor states should not cancel the restrictions until the Russian side "ceases to threaten the sovereignty of Ukraine."

Guarantees should also include measures aimed at confiscating the assets of the Russian Federation and its citizens.

Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia Dmitry Medvedev, commenting on this document, called it a prologue to a military conflict on a global scale.

“The Kiev camarilla gave birth to a project of “security guarantees”, which, in fact, are a prologue to the third world war.

Of course, no one will give any “guarantees” to the Ukrainian Nazis,” he wrote in his Telegram channel.

Create an analogue of the Fifth Article

With his statements about possible guarantees to Kiev after the end of the conflict, Polish President Duda is trying to create the appearance that Western countries are confident that it will end in their favor, Vladimir Bruter, an expert at the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies, said in an interview with RT.

“Duda once again utters the correct, as it seems to him, phrase, which actually does not mean anything at the moment.

If the President of Poland had said that security guarantees should be provided now, we would hear something new.

Washington understands that this is a very serious step towards a world war, so the United States will not rush into such actions, and if they are accepted, then without announcing and conducting at a lower level, ”the expert emphasized.

• Polish President Andrzej Duda

• AP

• © Olivier Matthys

According to him, all calls for providing security guarantees to Kiev are an attempt to create a mechanism for Ukraine similar to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which implies the participation of all NATO members in a conflict involving one of them.

At the same time, the alliance, despite statements to the contrary, is already actually involved in the conflict in Ukraine, Bruter noted.

“Statements that these countries do not participate in the conflict, but only provide support and assistance to Ukraine, are inappropriate - such assistance is a direct participation in the conflict and a direct threat to Russia.

The conflict from a regional one, which could have been resolved very quickly, has grown almost into the category of a global one, although with some restrictions, so it is not statements and words that matter, but real actions.

And the West is already doing quite a lot, ”the expert explained.

In turn, Vladimir Vinokurov, professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, recalled that Poland is constantly trying to initiate various foreign policy initiatives on behalf of NATO and the EU in order to increase its political weight.

“In this case, it’s called “putting the cart before the horse.”

We are talking about the fact that the state of the current crisis in Ukraine does not allow solving the issues of ensuring security guarantees, since it is not clear what will be the fate of the statehood of Ukraine, ”explained the interlocutor of RT.

“Duda not only proposes to consider the issue of security guarantees, but also basically proposes to do this at the expense of the main members of the NATO organization.

Today, there are no prospects for the implementation of this proposal due to the uncertainty of the future of Ukraine.

Whatever Biden says during his trip, nothing in this direction will move from a dead center, since everything will be decided according to the results of the SVO, ”the expert concluded.