Washington -
With the passage of a year since the war in Ukraine, President Joe Biden continues to play a pivotal role in leading a global front that is not limited to Western European countries and NATO, to confront the most serious crisis facing the European continent since the end of World War II.
The Ukrainian war has become one of the strongest tests of Biden's foreign policy promises, foremost of which is the restoration of America's standing, and its leadership in the battle against the "authoritarian model" around the world.
Many commentators questioned Biden's ability to face a crisis with the depth and seriousness of the Ukrainian crisis, especially as it came several months after what he described as a "chaotic" withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Experts believe that Biden has succeeded in mobilizing a united European front against Russia (Reuters)
Doubts about Biden's leadership
At the beginning of February 2022, and at the request of President Biden, Washington announced the evacuation of most American diplomats and soldiers from Ukraine because of what it saw as an imminent and expected Russian attack at any moment after Moscow mobilized more than 130,000 soldiers on the border.
Biden tried to dissuade Russian President Vladimir Putin from the war decision, but he failed, and direct communication between the two presidents did not lead to a fundamental change in the position on the Ukrainian crisis.
And Biden repeated before the invasion that "Washington, in cooperation with its allies, will respond decisively and impose swift and severe sanctions on Moscow if Russia invades Ukraine."
Biden decisively rejected Putin's request to obtain written guarantees that NATO will not expand eastward, and that no striking weapons will be deployed in countries bordering Russia.
Steve Pifer, an expert on European affairs and disarmament at the Brookings Institution, gave President Biden a grade of "B+" in his handling of the Ukraine crisis.
In an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, Beaver said, "Since the end of September 2021, the US intelligence community has realized Moscow's intention to invade Ukrainian lands, and Biden took the initiative to play an important role in creating an anti-Russian Western alliance, and he made dozens of phone calls and virtual meetings with leaders of European countries and NATO countries for their participation." What Washington has information, and showing them the latest pictures and records that convinced them of the imminent occurrence of the Russian invasion.
For his part, Matthew Whalen, CEO of the "American Security" project, a think tank focused on military affairs, said in an interview with Al Jazeera Net that "President Biden succeeded in mobilizing the West in a unified front against Russia, but diplomatic efforts were not exclusive to Washington. It has taken place through other countries such as the Baltic states, Poland and the United Kingdom."
Strong alliance so far!
Since 2014, Washington has provided a lot of military support and aid to Ukraine, hence "the Biden administration's anticipation of the invasion allowed the United States, along with other NATO countries, to provide more support to increase military training and transfers of weapons and ammunition to the Ukrainian army," according to Matthew Whalen.
Expert Beaver confirms that no one expected the alliance to continue its unified anti-Russian stance for so long, "Biden succeeded in avoiding divisions among Western allies whose opinions differed on how to confront Russia, and the degree of strictness with it."
Many commentators believe that the Russian president bet on divisions among NATO countries in their positions on the war, and expected that the factor of Russian gas exports to Europe would play a major role in determining the positions of the importing countries, which did not prevent support for Ukraine.
However, Peaver fears a change in Western and American public opinion, which is still in favor of supporting Ukraine, as the war enters its second year.
And with Biden's success in keeping the Western alliance united, on the other hand, he succeeded in uniting Americans with different partisan loyalties behind the goal of supporting Ukraine.
Despite the reservations of some Republican supporters of "America First" and former President Donald Trump, the divisions of politicians in Washington are not expected to change the US position in support of Ukraine.
Experts say that several determinants governed the Biden administration over the Ukrainian war file and made it wary of any change in Russian behavior (Reuters)
Determinants of Biden's position
With the passage of the first year of the Ukrainian war, it can be noted here that Biden's goal was and still is centered around 3 points:
Ukraine's military, economic and intelligence support.
Avoid military confrontation with Russia by all possible means.
Impose all possible sanctions on Russia for the military attack.
Nevertheless, Beaver believes that Biden is "extremely cautious and follows a conservative approach with which he fears different results from the Russian side," while Biden believes that there are two red lines for the United States that should not be approached: – not to get involved in direct combat against Russian forces, provided
that Arming and training the Ukrainian army.
Not allowing the Ukrainian army to launch any strikes inside Russian territory, and to limit them to Russian targets inside Ukrainian territory.
From here, Biden hesitated to agree to supply the Ukrainian army with advanced American M1A1 Abrams tanks, before retracting and allowing them to be sent and the Ukrainians to be trained to use them.
Ukraine's request to provide it with F-16 fighter jets may now be subject to the reservations of the former Biden himself.
The expert, Pifer, points out, "The possibility of changing the US president's cautious position on the issue of combat aircraft within a month or two, and allowing the start of training Ukrainian pilots to use them."
"tight" control
The huge American bureaucracy, in which several ministries play important roles towards a crisis of the magnitude of the Ukrainian crisis, allows the White House to contradict and perhaps clash with the Department of State, Defense, Treasury and the Central Intelligence Agency, due to the overlapping and complexity of roles and tasks.
However, expert Beaver refers to "strict control by the White House over the management of the Ukraine file, without clear disagreements between the Pentagon, the State Department, or the intelligence community in the face of the rapid developments in Ukraine."
This is mainly due to "Biden's long experience in dealing with all pillars of government bureaucracy, especially in its external aspect, over the last half century."