"Obstacles remain": how Brussels predicts a possible shortage of gas supplies to the EU

The European Union will manage to avoid a recession, but it will still experience difficulties, Paolo Gentiloni, European Commissioner for Economics, said on his Twitter page.

“The EU economy is expected to avoid recession, but obstacles remain,” he said.

During a press conference, Gentiloni explained that a shortage of gas supplies to the European Union cannot be ruled out.

“Let me be clear: we, as we say, “have not yet left the forest.”

Energy prices remain well above recent years and may remain volatile, with supply shortages likely to reappear in the coming months.

That is why, no later than the end of the current quarter, we intend to introduce a joint procurement tool to help fill gas storage facilities before the next filling season, ”the European official said.

According to Gentiloni, ahead of the Europeans "is still a difficult period."

“It is still expected that the growth rate (of the economy.

) will slow down due to powerful restraining factors, and inflation pressure on purchasing power will only gradually subside in the coming quarters,” he said.

Gentiloni also presented the European Commission's winter economic forecast (EC Forecast), which was published on the EC website.

As noted in the document, "the deterrents are still strong."

“Consumers and businesses continue to face high energy prices, and core inflation (that is, headline inflation that excludes energy and unprocessed food) continued to rise in January, further reducing household purchasing power.

Against the backdrop of continued inflationary pressure, further tightening of monetary policy is possible, which puts a burden on business activity and hinders investment,” the forecast says.

As stated in the document, inflationary and other risks are mainly associated with the development of the situation in the energy markets.

Sanctions course

Recall that in March 2022, the EU decided to eliminate the dependence of the association on the import of Russian energy resources as soon as possible.

As one of the first steps in this direction, the EU in April adopted the fifth sanctions package against Russia, which includes a ban on the supply of coal and other solid fossil fuels to the EU from Russia since August last year.

Another step taken by Brussels was the sixth package of sanctions, including an embargo on the purchase, import or transfer of crude oil and a number of oil products from Russia to the countries of the European Union.

In addition, in October 2022, the EU states, within the framework of the eighth package of sanctions restrictions, approved a ceiling on oil prices and a ban on European companies to insure and transport raw materials from the Russian Federation to third countries by sea at a price above $60 per barrel.

These measures

as well as an embargo on Russian oil came into force on 5 December.

In addition, the EU countries have agreed on a gas price ceiling of €180 per MWh.

• Berlaymont building, headquarters of the European Commission

• Gettyimages.ru

• © Jorg Greuel

On February 1, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced that the EU had completely eliminated dependence on Russian fossil fuels.

According to her, it went much faster than expected in Brussels.

However, in the same week, the Hungarian Energy Ministry called the EU sanctions policy against Russia a failure, emphasizing that the restrictions affected European consumers, who were faced with rising prices.

The Hungarian government spoke out "against any further expansion of energy sanctions."

As the head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, stated, Europe has completely lost its energy security, as well as access to "cheap and reliable Russian energy sources."

According to him, the EU states are now forced to pay three to five times more for gas.

"Nothing more than slyness"

As noted by economist and political scientist Alexander Dudchak, despite the fact that Brussels does not predict a recession, the EU is already experiencing a full-scale energy crisis, “which is not customary to talk about much there.”

“All this is accompanied by economic problems, and quite serious ones.

But in the EU officials prefer to talk mainly on other topics.

However, problems will soon accumulate and intensify.

The EU bought fuel all over the world at exorbitant prices, the winter was not cold, and they had enough for the season.

But next winter could be much harsher.

Moreover, all this does not cancel the problems in the field of production.

The European Union is losing the competition to the US and other economic centers where energy resources are cheaper.

But in the EU they cheer themselves up, judging by the statements of Gentiloni, ”the analyst stated in a comment to RT.

According to Vladimir Shapovalov, deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics of the Moscow State Pedagogical University, Vladimir Shapovalov, the words of the European Commissioner for Economics are deliberately devoid of facts that indicate that the European Union is “moving towards reindustrialization” amid high energy prices due to the anti-Russian sanctions course of the EU.

“At the same time, the European official admits that gas supplies may be tight, and in the near future, but still claims that the EU economy will be able to avoid a recession.

The last thesis is an attempt by Gentiloni to inspire optimism, to reassure the European public, which now has to overpay at times on utility bills because of Brussels' politicized desire to eliminate energy dependence on Russia, ”the expert said in a conversation with RT.

As Shapovalov stated, after the introduction of a number of sanctions packages containing restrictions on the import of Russian fossils and other fuels, "holes" appeared in the energy sector and the EU economy.

“To disguise them, the EU authorities resort to loud slogans about getting rid of addiction.

But why do Europeans care about formal indicators of the presence or absence of a recession, if Europe is already in a deplorable state due to its own policy, which is aimed at cutting the branch on which the Europeans themselves sit, ”said the analyst.

A similar opinion is shared by Dudchak.

According to him, the EU sanctions policy towards Russia, primarily related to energy resources, is "like a blow to the void."

“Such a course exhausts the Europeans themselves, among whom there is not even unity on this issue.

The EU has reached the point where they themselves are already making exceptions, because they cannot, for example, impose sanctions against nuclear energy.

The initiative is blocked by those countries that cooperate with Russia, such as Hungary.

At the same time, in Brussels they are looking for directions that, as they think, will not harm themselves when applying restrictions.

But Russia finds new markets, besides, it has the resources, and the EU continues to move towards de-industrialization, ”the expert believes.

Shapovalov, in turn, stated that it was the actions of the EU that led to the aggravation of the energy crisis in the association and the growth of inflation, "which is unprecedented."

“It was the steps of the European Union that provoked the flight of capital, the bankruptcy of many enterprises, including due to high prices for energy resources.

All this hits the wallet and the quality of life of every European, ”said the expert.

Shapovalov believes that the reflections of the European Commissioner for Economics Gentiloni about the likely shortage of gas "will soon become a reality."

“And here the system of joint purchases to fill gas storages, which the European official speaks of, will not help, since the problem of an adequate and equivalent replacement of Russian energy resources will still face the European Union for many years to come.

The fact is that now there are no reserve volumes of fuel on the world market that could completely exclude energy carriers from the Russian Federation.

In addition, the interests of the EU countries vary greatly, it is almost impossible to come to a common denominator.

Therefore, no matter how many beautiful and clever phrases are uttered in the EU that it is necessary to pursue a single policy, this will lead to nothing, ”the analyst said.

• European Commissioner for the Economy Paolo Gentiloni

• AP

• © Geert Vanden Wijngaert

Even those volumes of energy resources that the EU manages to replace "cost the Europeans very dearly," Shapovalov believes.

“Basically, it all comes down to two scenarios: either the EU countries buy up the same Russian energy carriers, but with a significant mark-up from other countries, or they buy expensive American LNG, the volumes of which, however, are also not enough to cover all the needs of the EU.

Therefore, the statements of European officials about the complete rejection of fossil fuels from the Russian Federation are nothing more than slyness, ”the expert believes.

Shapovalov stated that if Brussels does not abandon its "suicidal policy, the European Union will not expect anything good."

“Many more beautiful words will be said about unity, strategy, solidarity, some unified action plans, road maps will even be adopted, but this will not solve the problem globally.

Europe has no alternative comparable to Russian energy resources,” the analyst concluded.