The Japanese economy grew by 0.2% between October and December over one quarter, according to preliminary figures released on Tuesday.

This is slightly less than the rebound expected by the consensus of economists from the Bloomberg agency (+0.5%), after a slight decline of 0.3% in July-September, in real and adjusted data. seasonal variations.

Household consumption rose 0.5% in the fourth quarter, as spending on services was boosted by government subsidies encouraging domestic tourism.

Overseas visitors have also started returning to Japan in droves after the country's entry restrictions were completely lifted in October.

Foreign trade's contribution to GDP was also positive, unlike the previous quarter, thanks to an improvement in exports and a drop in the weight of imports against a backdrop of a rise in the yen and a decline in world hydrocarbon prices.

The country's industrial production also rose slightly (+0.3%) in December according to revised figures published on Tuesday by the Japanese Ministry of Economy and Industry, instead of a mini-return during the first estimate.

Over the whole of 2022, Japanese GDP increased by 1.1%, marking a second consecutive year of growth after the plunge caused in 2020 by the pandemic.

"Road strewn with pitfalls"

"After the surprise contraction in the third quarter, the weak rebound in the fourth underscores that Japan's late (economic) recovery remains fragile and subject to setbacks," economist Stefan Angrick said in a note to Moody's Analytics.

Because there is great uncertainty about the evolution of Japanese GDP at the start of the year, against the backdrop of the slowdown in the world economy which should weigh on the country's exports, and inflation that is currently high, having reached 4%. in December.

This national record for 41 years, and well above the 2% target set by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), did not however convince the institution to modify its ultra-accommodating monetary policy which it has been pursuing for 10 years.

Cars ready for export at the port of Kawasaki, near Tokyo, May 18, 2022 © Philip FONG / AFP/Archives

The BoJ continues to believe that this strong rise in prices is temporary, as it is essentially stimulated by external factors such as the surge in energy prices, and not sustained by sufficient wage increases and growth.

The Japanese government on Tuesday appointed economics professor Kazuo Ueda to succeed current BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda in April.

Mr. Ueda's mission promises to be perilous, as BoJ policy looks increasingly unsustainable in the global context of high inflation and rate hikes, with no easy way out unscathed for the Japanese economy.

Because of weaker-than-expected growth in the third quarter, "the new governor will find it difficult to quickly launch any normalization" monetary, said economist Min Joo Kang in a note from ING published Tuesday.

"Japan's path to recovery will remain rocky," said Mr. Angrick, who expects moderate growth in 2023 amid improving domestic demand, supported by the end of anti-Covid restrictions, the decline in inflation and the recovery of world tourism.

The Japanese economy should also benefit this year from the reopening of China and new government support measures that recently came into effect, according to economists.

At the end of January, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) thus revised its growth forecast for Japan in 2023 upwards, to 1.8% against 1.6% three months earlier.

© 2023 AFP